Nate Tice Mock Draft Accuracy: Every Pick, Graded

Nate Tice Mock Draft Accuracy: Every Pick, Graded | MissedTakes

In a first-round mock draft on NFL Daily, Tice made the odd-numbered picks, starting with Cam Ward to the Titans at No. 1 and running through Josh Simmons to the Chiefs at 31. He also pegged Grey Zabel as a back-half-of-round-one talent.17 graded calls · Apr 8, 2025

Cam Ward to be picked at number 1
“number one pick Titans going with Cam Woord quarterback”
Hit · 100Scored 100 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 86.96 against a shuffle’s 50+36.96 skill
How this was scored
draft:
2025
naive:
a shuffled mock scores 50
skill:
36.96
player:
Cam Ward
season:
2025
zero at:
32
accuracy:
100
baseline:
50
actual pick:
1
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
pick accuracy:
100
predicted pick:
1
weeks left when called:
0
mock ordering score:
86.96
Think this grade is wrong?
Mason Graham to be picked at number 5
“So that's why I'm going to go with Mason Graham. Okay, defensive tackle. (Jaguars at No. 5)”
Hit · 100Scored 100 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 86.96 against a shuffle’s 50+36.96 skill
How this was scored
draft:
2025
naive:
a shuffled mock scores 50
skill:
36.96
player:
Mason Graham
season:
2025
zero at:
32
accuracy:
100
baseline:
50
actual pick:
5
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
pick accuracy:
100
predicted pick:
5
weeks left when called:
0
mock ordering score:
86.96
Mike Green to be picked at number 15
“I am having Mike Green go to the Falcons”
Miss · 15Scored 14.87 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 86.96 against a shuffle’s 50+36.96 skill
How this was scored
draft:
2025
naive:
a shuffled mock scores 50
skill:
36.96
player:
Mike Green
season:
2025
zero at:
32
accuracy:
14.87
baseline:
50
actual pick:
59
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
pick accuracy:
14.87
predicted pick:
15
weeks left when called:
0
mock ordering score:
86.96
Think this grade is wrong?
Shavon Revel Jr. to be picked at number 21
“I'm gonna go savone ravel Wow, okay, yes, Corner East Carolina (Steelers at 21)”
Miss · 9Scored 9.23 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 86.96 against a shuffle’s 50+36.96 skill
How this was scored
draft:
2025
naive:
a shuffled mock scores 50
skill:
36.96
player:
Shavon Revel Jr.
season:
2025
zero at:
32
accuracy:
9.23
baseline:
50
actual pick:
76
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
pick accuracy:
9.23
predicted pick:
21
weeks left when called:
0
mock ordering score:
86.96
Malaki Starks to be picked at number 13
“Malachi Stark's safety from Georgia, who's kind of dropped a little bit, but I think this is the start of his range (Dolphins)”
Close · 55Scored 54.53 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 86.96 against a shuffle’s 50+36.96 skill
How this was scored
draft:
2025
naive:
a shuffled mock scores 50
skill:
36.96
player:
Malaki Starks
season:
2025
zero at:
32
accuracy:
54.53
baseline:
50
actual pick:
27
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
pick accuracy:
54.53
predicted pick:
13
weeks left when called:
0
mock ordering score:
Josh Simmons to be picked at number 31
“I am going to go Josh Simmons over Banks... yeah, Simmons, Josh Simmons, Ohio State (Chiefs)”
Hit · 96Scored 95.76 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 86.96 against a shuffle’s 50+36.96 skill
How this was scored
draft:
2025
naive:
a shuffled mock scores 50
skill:
36.96
player:
Josh Simmons
season:
2025
zero at:
32
accuracy:
95.76
baseline:
50
actual pick:
32
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
pick accuracy:
95.76
predicted pick:
31
weeks left when called:
0
mock ordering score:
86.96
Abdul Carter to be picked at number 3
“But I'm gonna go I'm gonna duel Carter, who I think is a very good prospect... just skim him on this roster (Giants at No. 3)”
Hit · 100Scored 100 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 86.96 against a shuffle’s 50+36.96 skill
How this was scored
draft:
2025
naive:
a shuffled mock scores 50
skill:
36.96
player:
Abdul Carter
season:
2025
zero at:
32
accuracy:
100
baseline:
50
actual pick:
3
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
pick accuracy:
100
predicted pick:
3
weeks left when called:
0
mock ordering score:
Donovan Ezeiruaku to be picked at number 29
“That's where I'm going with Donovan. Is a rockup from Boston College (Commanders)”
Close · 52Scored 52.21 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 86.96 against a shuffle’s 50+36.96 skill
How this was scored
draft:
2025
naive:
a shuffled mock scores 50
skill:
36.96
player:
Donovan Ezeiruaku
season:
2025
zero at:
32
accuracy:
52.21
baseline:
50
actual pick:
44
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
pick accuracy:
52.21
predicted pick:
29
weeks left when called:
0
mock ordering score:
86.96
Donovan Jackson to be picked at number 27
“I'm gonna go Donovan Jackson Ohio State (Ravens)”
Hit · 88Scored 87.81 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 86.96 against a shuffle’s 50+36.96 skill
How this was scored
draft:
2025
naive:
a shuffled mock scores 50
skill:
36.96
player:
Donovan Jackson
season:
2025
zero at:
32
accuracy:
87.81
baseline:
50
actual pick:
24
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
pick accuracy:
87.81
predicted pick:
27
weeks left when called:
0
mock ordering score:
86.96
Josh Conerly Jr. to be picked at number 25
“Josh Connerly here from Oregon offensive tackle... But that is with the Texans”
Hit · 84Scored 84.09 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 86.96 against a shuffle’s 50+36.96 skill
How this was scored
draft:
2025
naive:
a shuffled mock scores 50
skill:
36.96
player:
Josh Conerly Jr.
season:
2025
zero at:
32
accuracy:
84.09
baseline:
50
actual pick:
29
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
pick accuracy:
84.09
predicted pick:
25
weeks left when called:
0
mock ordering score:
86.96
Derrick Harmon to be picked at number 17
“I'm going to go with Derek Harmon here from Oregon (Bengals)”
Hit · 84Scored 84.09 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 86.96 against a shuffle’s 50+36.96 skill
How this was scored
draft:
2025
naive:
a shuffled mock scores 50
skill:
36.96
player:
Derrick Harmon
season:
2025
zero at:
32
accuracy:
84.09
baseline:
50
actual pick:
21
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
pick accuracy:
84.09
predicted pick:
17
weeks left when called:
0
mock ordering score:
86.96
Colston Loveland to be picked at number 7
“I'm gonna go Coulson Love one woow, Michigan... So I'm gonna go call some level in here and the Jets”
Hit · 88Scored 87.81 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 86.96 against a shuffle’s 50+36.96 skill
How this was scored
draft:
2025
naive:
a shuffled mock scores 50
skill:
36.96
player:
Colston Loveland
season:
2025
zero at:
32
accuracy:
87.81
baseline:
50
actual pick:
10
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
pick accuracy:
87.81
predicted pick:
7
weeks left when called:
0
mock ordering score:
86.96
Kenneth Grant to be picked at number 23
“I'm gonna go Kenneth Grant, oh Michigan... Kenneth Grant Packers”
Close · 65Scored 64.84 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 86.96 against a shuffle’s 50+36.96 skill
How this was scored
draft:
2025
naive:
a shuffled mock scores 50
skill:
36.96
player:
Kenneth Grant
season:
2025
zero at:
32
accuracy:
64.84
baseline:
50
actual pick:
13
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
pick accuracy:
64.84
predicted pick:
23
weeks left when called:
0
mock ordering score:
86.96
Shemar Stewart to be picked at number 19
“I'm gonna go with Schamar Stewart from Texas A and m Okay (Buccaneers)”
Hit · 92Scored 91.7 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 86.96 against a shuffle’s 50+36.96 skill
How this was scored
draft:
2025
naive:
a shuffled mock scores 50
skill:
36.96
player:
Shemar Stewart
season:
2025
zero at:
32
accuracy:
91.7
baseline:
50
actual pick:
17
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
pick accuracy:
91.7
predicted pick:
19
weeks left when called:
0
mock ordering score:
86.96
Mykel Williams to be picked at number 11
“Actually I'm gonna go with Mikel Williams. Actually here this is a little rich (49ers at No. 11)”
Hit · 100Scored 100 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 86.96 against a shuffle’s 50+36.96 skill
How this was scored
draft:
2025
naive:
a shuffled mock scores 50
skill:
36.96
player:
Mykel Williams
season:
2025
zero at:
32
accuracy:
100
baseline:
50
actual pick:
11
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
pick accuracy:
100
predicted pick:
11
weeks left when called:
0
mock ordering score:
86.96
Armand Membou to be picked at number 9
“Well, I'm gonna go with Memboo because that's where I was kind of leaning anyways (Saints at No. 9)”
Hit · 92Scored 91.7 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 89.12 against a shuffle’s 50+39.12 skill
How this was scored
draft:
2025
naive:
a shuffled mock scores 50
skill:
39.12
player:
Armand Membou
season:
2025
zero at:
32
accuracy:
91.7
baseline:
50
actual pick:
7
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
pick accuracy:
91.7
predicted pick:
9
weeks left when called:
0
mock ordering score:
89.12
Grey Zabel to be picked “an eighteen to thirty type player... back half of this first round” (picks 1–32)
“I think he's an eighteen to thirty type player, you know, or just say back half of this first round”
Hit · 100Scored 100 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 89.12 against a shuffle’s 50+39.12 skill
How this was scored
draft:
2025
naive:
a shuffled mock scores 50
skill:
39.12
player:
Grey Zabel
season:
2025
zero at:
32
accuracy:
100
baseline:
50
actual pick:
18
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
pick accuracy:
100
predicted pick:
an eighteen to thirty type player... back half of this first round (picks 1–32)
weeks left when called:
0

Tice gave draft projections for the tight end, receiver, offensive line and running back classes: Colston Loveland in the 18-24 range, Tyler Warren around top 15, Will Campbell as his top offensive lineman, Luther Burden as a late first/early second, Xavier Restrepo as a third-rounder, Emeka Egbuka as an NFL No. 2 receiver, and Devin Neal as a Round 2 back.4 graded calls · Feb 28, 2025

Tyler Warren to be picked “more as top fifteen” (picks 1–15)
“That being top ten might be a little rich, I might say more as top fifteen”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 50
How this was scored
draft:
2025
naive:
a shuffled mock scores 50
player:
Tyler Warren
season:
2024
zero at:
32
accuracy:
100
baseline:
50
actual pick:
14
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
pick accuracy:
100
predicted pick:
more as top fifteen (picks 1–15)
weeks left when called:
0
mock ordering score:
only one pick — no order to score
Think this grade is wrong?
Will Campbell to be 1st offensive lineman off the board
“But for it it's the context of he's my old lineman one.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 8.33+91.67 skill
How this was scored
draft:
2025
naive:
naming one of the 41 at random averages 8.33
skill:
91.67
player:
Will Campbell
season:
2024
zero at:
credit halves every two places
accuracy:
100
baseline:
8.33
position:
offensive lineman
class size:
41
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
actual order:
1
predicted order:
1
weeks left when called:
0
Luther Burden III to be picked “late first rounder, maybe sneak in early second type” (picks 1–64)
“especially I've seen him more as a late first rounder, maybe sneak in early second type”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 50
How this was scored
draft:
2025
naive:
a shuffled mock scores 50
player:
Luther Burden III
season:
2024
zero at:
32
accuracy:
100
baseline:
50
actual pick:
39
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
pick accuracy:
100
predicted pick:
late first rounder, maybe sneak in early second type (picks 1–64)
weeks left when called:
0
mock ordering score:
only one pick — no order to score
Think this grade is wrong?
Xavier Restrepo to be picked “like a third rounder” (picks 65–102)
“He's a slot only guy, but he'll probably be a number three, but I like him as like a third rounder.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 50
How this was scored
draft:
2025
naive:
a shuffled mock scores 50
player:
Xavier Restrepo
season:
2024
zero at:
undrafted
outcome:
went undrafted in 2025; later signed with TEN
accuracy:
0
baseline:
50
actual pick:
undrafted
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
pick accuracy:
0
predicted pick:
like a third rounder (picks 65–102)
weeks left when called:
0
mock ordering score:

Graded calls · 24