Nate Tice· Apr 8, 2025
In a first-round mock draft on NFL Daily, Tice made the odd-numbered picks, starting with Cam Ward to the Titans at No. 1 and running through Josh Simmons to the Chiefs at 31. He also pegged Grey Zabel as a back-half-of-round-one talent.
“Number one pick Titans going with Cam Woord quarterback.”
said on air or in an interview · Around the NFL (podcast) · read the original →
The page this came from has changed since we captured it on Aug 5, 2026. The quote and evidence above are from our capture, not from what the page says today.
17 checkable claims — 17 mock draft picks — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.
It names 33 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
All 17 have settled, averaging 77.6 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess at the same calls.
Their call against what happened
overall pickan eighteen to thirty type player... back half of this first round (picks 1–32)They said
18What happened
Their call against what actually happened.
Where do you stand? Pick this and every open claim on Picks →
Who this take is about
- Grey Zabel
- Armand Membou
- New Orleans Saints
- Mike Green
- Atlanta Falcons
- Derrick Harmon
- Cincinnati Bengals
- Shemar Stewart
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers
- Shavon Revel Jr.
- Pittsburgh Steelers
- Kenneth Grant
- Green Bay Packers
- Josh Conerly Jr.
- Houston Texans
- Donovan Jackson
- Baltimore Ravens
- Donovan Ezeiruaku
- Washington Commanders
- Mason Graham
- Jacksonville Jaguars
- Abdul Carter
- New York Giants
- Cam Ward
- Tennessee Titans
- Josh Simmons
- Kansas City Chiefs
- Malaki Starks
- Miami Dolphins
- Mykel Williams
- San Francisco 49ers
- Colston Loveland
- New York Jets
17 checkable claims in this take
Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.
- Mock Draft PicksGrey ZabelApr 8, 2025
Grey Zabel to be picked “an eighteen to thirty type player... back half of this first round” (picks 1–32)
“I think he's an eighteen to thirty type player, you know, or just say back half of this first round”
Hit · 100Scored 100 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 89.12 against a shuffle’s 50+39.12 skillHow this was scored
- draft:
- 2025
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 39.12
- player:
- Grey Zabel
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 18
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 100
- predicted pick:
- an eighteen to thirty type player... back half of this first round (picks 1–32)
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 89.12
Armand Membou to be picked at number 9
“Well, I'm gonna go with Memboo because that's where I was kind of leaning anyways (Saints at No. 9)”
Hit · 92Scored 91.7 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 89.12 against a shuffle’s 50+39.12 skillHow this was scored
- draft:
- 2025
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 39.12
- player:
- Armand Membou
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 91.7
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 7
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 91.7
- predicted pick:
- 9
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 89.12
- Mock Draft PicksMike GreenAtlanta FalconsApr 8, 2025
Mike Green to be picked at number 15
“I am having Mike Green go to the Falcons”
Miss · 15Scored 14.87 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 86.96 against a shuffle’s 50+36.96 skillHow this was scored
- draft:
- 2025
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 36.96
- player:
- Mike Green
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 14.87
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 59
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 14.87
- predicted pick:
- 15
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 86.96
Derrick Harmon to be picked at number 17
“I'm going to go with Derek Harmon here from Oregon (Bengals)”
Hit · 84Scored 84.09 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 86.96 against a shuffle’s 50+36.96 skillHow this was scored
- draft:
- 2025
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 36.96
- player:
- Derrick Harmon
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 84.09
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 21
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 84.09
- predicted pick:
- 17
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 86.96
Shemar Stewart to be picked at number 19
“I'm gonna go with Schamar Stewart from Texas A and m Okay (Buccaneers)”
Hit · 92Scored 91.7 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 86.96 against a shuffle’s 50+36.96 skillHow this was scored
- draft:
- 2025
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 36.96
- player:
- Shemar Stewart
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 91.7
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 17
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 91.7
- predicted pick:
- 19
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 86.96
Shavon Revel Jr. to be picked at number 21
“I'm gonna go savone ravel Wow, okay, yes, Corner East Carolina (Steelers at 21)”
Miss · 9Scored 9.23 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 86.96 against a shuffle’s 50+36.96 skillHow this was scored
- draft:
- 2025
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 36.96
- player:
- Shavon Revel Jr.
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 9.23
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 76
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 9.23
- predicted pick:
- 21
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 86.96
Kenneth Grant to be picked at number 23
“I'm gonna go Kenneth Grant, oh Michigan... Kenneth Grant Packers”
Close · 65Scored 64.84 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 86.96 against a shuffle’s 50+36.96 skillHow this was scored
- draft:
- 2025
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 36.96
- player:
- Kenneth Grant
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 64.84
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 13
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 64.84
- predicted pick:
- 23
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 86.96
Josh Conerly Jr. to be picked at number 25
“Josh Connerly here from Oregon offensive tackle... But that is with the Texans”
Hit · 84Scored 84.09 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 86.96 against a shuffle’s 50+36.96 skillHow this was scored
- draft:
- 2025
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 36.96
- player:
- Josh Conerly Jr.
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 84.09
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 29
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 84.09
- predicted pick:
- 25
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 86.96
Donovan Jackson to be picked at number 27
“I'm gonna go Donovan Jackson Ohio State (Ravens)”
Hit · 88Scored 87.81 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 86.96 against a shuffle’s 50+36.96 skillHow this was scored
- draft:
- 2025
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 36.96
- player:
- Donovan Jackson
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 87.81
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 24
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 87.81
- predicted pick:
- 27
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 86.96
Donovan Ezeiruaku to be picked at number 29
“That's where I'm going with Donovan. Is a rockup from Boston College (Commanders)”
Close · 52Scored 52.21 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 86.96 against a shuffle’s 50+36.96 skillHow this was scored
- draft:
- 2025
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 36.96
- player:
- Donovan Ezeiruaku
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 52.21
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 44
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 52.21
- predicted pick:
- 29
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 86.96
Mason Graham to be picked at number 5
“So that's why I'm going to go with Mason Graham. Okay, defensive tackle. (Jaguars at No. 5)”
Hit · 100Scored 100 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 86.96 against a shuffle’s 50+36.96 skillHow this was scored
- draft:
- 2025
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 36.96
- player:
- Mason Graham
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 5
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 100
- predicted pick:
- 5
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 86.96
- Mock Draft PicksAbdul CarterNew York GiantsApr 8, 2025
Abdul Carter to be picked at number 3
“But I'm gonna go I'm gonna duel Carter, who I think is a very good prospect... just skim him on this roster (Giants at No. 3)”
Hit · 100Scored 100 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 86.96 against a shuffle’s 50+36.96 skillHow this was scored
- draft:
- 2025
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 36.96
- player:
- Abdul Carter
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 3
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 100
- predicted pick:
- 3
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 86.96
- Mock Draft PicksCam WardTennessee TitansApr 8, 2025
Cam Ward to be picked at number 1
“number one pick Titans going with Cam Woord quarterback”
Hit · 100Scored 100 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 86.96 against a shuffle’s 50+36.96 skillHow this was scored
- draft:
- 2025
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 36.96
- player:
- Cam Ward
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 1
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 100
- predicted pick:
- 1
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 86.96
Josh Simmons to be picked at number 31
“I am going to go Josh Simmons over Banks... yeah, Simmons, Josh Simmons, Ohio State (Chiefs)”
Hit · 96Scored 95.76 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 86.96 against a shuffle’s 50+36.96 skillHow this was scored
- draft:
- 2025
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 36.96
- player:
- Josh Simmons
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 95.76
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 32
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 95.76
- predicted pick:
- 31
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 86.96
- Mock Draft PicksMalaki StarksMiami DolphinsApr 8, 2025
Malaki Starks to be picked at number 13
“Malachi Stark's safety from Georgia, who's kind of dropped a little bit, but I think this is the start of his range (Dolphins)”
Close · 55Scored 54.53 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 86.96 against a shuffle’s 50+36.96 skillHow this was scored
- draft:
- 2025
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 36.96
- player:
- Malaki Starks
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 54.53
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 27
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 54.53
- predicted pick:
- 13
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 86.96
Mykel Williams to be picked at number 11
“Actually I'm gonna go with Mikel Williams. Actually here this is a little rich (49ers at No. 11)”
Hit · 100Scored 100 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 86.96 against a shuffle’s 50+36.96 skillHow this was scored
- draft:
- 2025
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 36.96
- player:
- Mykel Williams
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 11
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 100
- predicted pick:
- 11
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 86.96
Colston Loveland to be picked at number 7
“I'm gonna go Coulson Love one woow, Michigan... So I'm gonna go call some level in here and the Jets”
Hit · 88Scored 87.81 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 86.96 against a shuffle’s 50+36.96 skillHow this was scored
- draft:
- 2025
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 36.96
- player:
- Colston Loveland
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 87.81
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 10
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 87.81
- predicted pick:
- 7
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 86.96
What others said about the same people
- John ShipleyRoster Spot Calls · Jalen McLeodMiss · 0Shipley projects a full 16-player (plus one international/exemption spot) Jaguars practice squad for 2026, naming specific players at each position he expects to land there.
- Bucky BrooksRoster Spot Calls · Josh JohnsonMiss · 0Brooks predicted J.J. McCarthy won't be on the Vikings' roster (traded or released), said Kyler Murray wins the Vikings' QB competition, made a series of 2025 award picks, made 2026 Heisman/draft projections including Arch Manning as the front-runner for the No. 1 overall pick, and said none of Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen or Joe Burrow win a championship this season.
- Jared KochRoster Spot Calls · Lewis BondHit · 100Koch argues Kayshon Boutte is a winner in the trade to Houston, likely to see many more snaps and potentially post a career season, while Xavier Hutchinson's path to a breakout gets harder. He also sees Kamari Ramsey stepping up as the primary backup safety behind a top three of Bullock, Pitre and Blankenship, and views Jared Wayne as a fringe roster player squeezed by receivers he calls virtual locks.
- Jason La CanforaRoster Spot Calls · Gerad LichtenhanMiss · 0La Canfora predicts the Ravens will keep several young players on their practice squad — DL Kaimon Rucker, LB Dominic DeLuca, LB Ethan Burke, CB Amani Oruwariye, OT Gerad Lichtenhan and QB Joe Fagnano — and expects the team to make at least one trade from its surplus of cornerbacks.
- Lance ZierleinRoster Spot Calls · Lewis BondHit · 100Zierlein expects Texans QB C.J. Stroud to play roughly 10-12 plays in Thursday's preseason game, with Davis Mills going to halftime and newly signed Brett Rypien playing the entire second half. He also said if Tank Dell isn't ready, Lewis Bond and Jaden Hall would both likely make the roster, and predicted Keelan Rutledge will be the starting center with Wyatt Teller and Braden Smith starting.
- Lance ZierleinRoster Spot Calls · Lewis BondHit · 100Zierlein expects Trevor Goosby, Texas' starting left tackle, to be a first-round NFL draft pick, and thinks Quinn Ewers may struggle to stay on the Dolphins' roster beyond this year. He also predicts the Texans' preseason quarterback usage: C.J. Stroud around 10-12 plays, Davis Mills through the first half, and Brett Rypien for the second half. If Tank Dell isn't ready, he thinks Lewis Bond and Jaden Hall could both make the roster.
More mock draft picks
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
- Lance ZierleinMock Draft Picks · Jeremiyah LoveHit · 100Zierlein laid out his final mock draft: Jeremiah Love at No. 3 to Arizona, Sonny Styles at No. 4 to Robert Saleh's team, and Caleb Downs to the Giants at No. 5. He also called Styles the only first-round linebacker in the class and said Ty Simpson is a lock to be a first-round pick, most likely to Arizona.
- Nick ShookMock Draft Picks · Max IheanachorHit · 88Shook walks through his full first-round mock draft, assigning a prospect to every pick from No. 1 to No. 32, headlined by Fernando Mendoza to the Raiders, David Bailey to the Jets and Jeremiah Love to the Cardinals in the top three.
- Gregg RosenthalMock Draft Picks · K.C. ConcepcionClose · 68Rosenthal disagrees most with Casey Concepcion being left out of the first round, arguing he could go as high as the top 15 and certainly won't last past receiver-needy teams in the late twenties.
- Daniel JeremiahMock Draft Picks · Keyron CrawfordHit · 81In discussing teams without first-round picks, Jeremiah projected specific Day 2 picks: Clemson WR Antonio Williams to the Falcons at 48, Texas Tech LB Jacob Rodriguez to the Colts in the second round, Oklahoma edge R Mason Thomas to the Packers at 52, and Auburn edge Keiroon Crawford to the Broncos at 62. He also expects Riley Leonard to open as the Colts' starting QB and Travis Hunter to play cornerback full time in Jacksonville.
- Daniel JeremiahMock Draft Picks · Carnell TateHit · 92Jeremiah says Denver, not Kansas City, will be the clear favorite in the AFC West this season; he also puts Carnell Tate sixth and Monroe Freeling twentieth on his prospect board, mocks Tate to Cleveland at No. 6, and expects Georgia receiver Branch to be a Day 2 pick after a strong pro day.
- Jeff CavanaughMock Draft Picks · Lorenzo StylesMiss · 1Streaming from the NFL Combine, Jeff pegged safety Dylan Thienemann's draft range at roughly picks 20-35, said LSU safety AJ Halsey would cost a second- or third-round pick, and insisted Sonny Styles' brother would not be a top-50 selection despite a fast 40.