Tom Pelissero Predictions: Record, Accuracy, Every Take | MissedTakes

Tom Pelissero

Tom Pelissero covers the NFL as an insider, appearing regularly on podcasts like Around the NFL and Move the Sticks. His reporting spans the league—draft positioning, player movement, roster decisions—with observations touching teams from Cleveland to Los Angeles and players from Cam Ward to Matthew Stafford.

Writes at The Rich Eisen Show (podcast)

Every take from Tom Pelissero, including the ones still waiting →

Is Tom Pelissero accurate? Across 31 graded calls in 16 articles, Tom Pelissero scores 80.15% accuracy and a MissedTakes Score of 25.23, which means their calls were better than a naive guess on the same claims. That is a limited sample, under thirty graded articles, so treat it with caution.

80.15%

Accuracy

How often they were right.

25.23

MissedTakes Score

Versus a naive guess. 0 means no better.

Graded calls

across 16 articles. 46 more not yet settled.

A limited sample — under 30 graded articles.

100% of their claims were specific enough to check. Most of what they said committed to something.

Every number here is computed from the published methodology, and every call below shows its own arithmetic.

Awards

Computed, never chosen: the best article-weighted record among eligible pundits over a completed period. Eligibility follows the leaderboard’s bar — provisional records cannot win.

Pundit of the Week · AccuracyWeek 32, 2026Accuracy 90.34 · 7 graded takes across 3 articles

What they call, and how it goes

The record split by kind of claim — five graded calls minimum before a kind shows here. A pundit can be sharp on drafts and ordinary on game picks, and averaging that away is how a number stops meaning anything.

Mock Draft Picks13 graded90.25 accuracy
Depth Chart Calls8 graded98.61 accuracy

Form

Rolling accuracy over their last fifteen graded calls, in the order the claims were made. The dashed line is their career average — the question this answers is whether the number above is who they are or who they were.

earliest callscareer avg 84 ┄latest form: 78

Graded calls · 31

Pelissero expects the Raiders to draft Fernando Mendoza first overall, and says Kirk Cousins will be released March 11 while Tua Tagovailoa will be released before March 13 if Miami can't trade him.Mar 2, 2026
- Fernando Mendoza to be picked at number 1
  “we we've kinda talked about the Raiders within this lens of, well, they're drafting Fernando Mendoza, we think, at number one overall”
  Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 50
  How this was scored
  draft:
  2026
  naive:
  a shuffled mock scores 50
  player:
  Fernando Mendoza
  season:
  2026
  zero at:
  32
  accuracy:
  100
  baseline:
  50
  actual pick:
  1
  difficulty:
  1
  weeks in the season:

Pelissero says Cam Ward is the Titans' pick at the top of the 2025 draft and that Travis Hunter is most likely the Browns' selection at No. 2; he also endorses Tyler Warren as a top-10 pick, expects Ashton Jeanty inside the top 10, and names five under-the-radar players who could sneak into round one, including Emeka Egbuka between picks 20-25 and Tyler Shough (whom he pegs more likely as a Day 2 pick).4 graded calls · Apr 21, 2025

Cam Ward to be picked at number 1
“For a couple of months now, it's been pretty clear that the Titans pick is going to be cam Ward, the quarterback from Miami... it would be a absolute shock if it's not cam Ward going to Tennessee”
Hit · 100Scored 100 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 100 against a shuffle’s 50+50 skill
How this was scored
draft:
2025
naive:
a shuffled mock scores 50
skill:
50
player:
Cam Ward
season:
2025
zero at:
32
accuracy:
100
baseline:
50
actual pick:
1
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
pick accuracy:
100
predicted pick:
1
weeks left when called:
0
mock ordering score:
100
Think this grade is wrong?
Travis Hunter to be picked at number 2
“I would say the feeling within the league is most likely Travis Hunter from Colorado ends up being the Browns pick at number two.”
Hit · 100Scored 100 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 100 against a shuffle’s 50+50 skill
How this was scored
draft:
2025
naive:
a shuffled mock scores 50
skill:
50
player:
Travis Hunter
season:
2025
zero at:
32
accuracy:
100
baseline:
50
actual pick:
2
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
pick accuracy:
100
predicted pick:
2
weeks left when called:
0
mock ordering score:
Tyler Warren to be picked “top ten pick” (picks 1–10)
“Cody's right, and Tyler Warren should be a top ten pick.”
Hit · 84Scored 84.09 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 100 against a shuffle’s 50+50 skill
How this was scored
draft:
2025
naive:
a shuffled mock scores 50
skill:
50
player:
Tyler Warren
season:
2025
zero at:
32
accuracy:
84.09
baseline:
50
actual pick:
14
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
pick accuracy:
84.09
predicted pick:
top ten pick (picks 1–10)
weeks left when called:
0
mock ordering score:
100
Ashton Jeanty to be picked “somewhere in the top ten” (picks 1–10)
“My question is not does Ashion Genty end up going somewhere in the top ten? I believe you will.”
Hit · 100Scored 100 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 100 against a shuffle’s 50+50 skill
How this was scored
draft:
2025
naive:
a shuffled mock scores 50
skill:
50
player:
Ashton Jeanty
season:
2025
zero at:
32
accuracy:
100
baseline:
50
actual pick:
6
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
pick accuracy:
100
predicted pick:
somewhere in the top ten (picks 1–10)
weeks left when called:
0
mock ordering score: