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Tom Pelissero· Feb 26, 2026

Pelissero predicts Fernando Mendoza goes No. 1 overall to the Raiders and that Ty Simpson is the only other QB in the class seen as a possible early starter.

“You have a draft where Fernando Mendoza, we all assume and believe he's going number one to the Raiders.”

said on air, transcribed by us · The Rich Eisen Show (podcast) · read the original →

2 checkable claims — 1 mock draft pick and 1 position order call — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.

It names 3 players and teams, each linked to their own record.

All 2 have settled, averaging 100 out of 100, against 44.9 for a naive guess at the same calls.

Where this call stands in the room

Fernando Mendoza · 2025 season · overall pick

3 calls from 3 pundits between 1 overall pick and 1 overall pick. Tom Pelissero said 1 overall pick. the room's median is 1 overall pick. what happened: 1 overall pick

Tom Pelissero — 1 overall pickthe room — 3 calls from 3 punditsmedian 1 overall pickwhat happened — 1 overall pick

Every dot is a call somebody published on the same question, before the answer existed. The bar is what actually happened. Hover a dot for the name and number; click it to read that take.

Their call against what happened

overall pick
1They said
1What happened

Their call against what actually happened.

Where do you stand? Pick this and every open claim on Picks →

Who this take is about

2 checkable claims in this take

Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.

  • Fernando Mendoza to be picked at number 1

    “You have a draft where Fernando Mendoza, we all assume and believe he's going number one to the Raiders.”

    Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 50
    How this was scored
    draft:
    2026
    naive:
    a shuffled mock scores 50
    player:
    Fernando Mendoza
    season:
    2025
    zero at:
    32
    accuracy:
    100
    baseline:
    50
    actual pick:
    1
    difficulty:
    1
    weeks in the season:
    18
    pick accuracy:
    100
    predicted pick:
    1
    weeks left when called:
    0
    mock ordering score:
    only one pick — no order to score

    Think this is wrong?

  • Ty Simpson to be 2nd quarterback off the board

    “After that, the only other quarterback that somebody might think can be a starter sooner than later is probably Tye Simpson from Alabama.”

    Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 39.7+60.3 skill
    How this was scored
    draft:
    2026
    naive:
    naming one of the 10 at random averages 39.7
    skill:
    60.3
    player:
    Ty Simpson
    season:
    2025
    zero at:
    credit halves every two places
    accuracy:
    100
    baseline:
    39.7
    position:
    quarterback
    class size:
    10
    difficulty:
    1
    weeks in the season:
    18
    actual order:
    2
    predicted order:
    2
    weeks left when called:
    0

    Think this is wrong?

What others said about the same people

More position order calls

The same kind of call, about other players and teams.

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