Dylan O'Brien· Sep 3, 2025
Playing the win-loss game for the 2025 Jets, O'Brien went game by game through the schedule and landed on an 11-6 season, opening 0-2 before a long late-season winning streak.
“Eleven and six.”
said on air, transcribed by us · The Rich Eisen Show (podcast) · read the original →
18 checkable claims — 17 game outcome picks and 1 season win total — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.
It names 7 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
All 18 have settled, averaging 38.9 out of 100, against 56.9 for a naive guess at the same calls.
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Who this take is about
18 checkable claims in this take
Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.
- Game Outcome PicksNew England PatriotsSep 3, 2025
New England Patriots to beat Jets
“since we're in New England, I gotta give us two l's in a row here for New England and Baltimore”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skillHow this was scored
- won:
- NE
- score:
- 14-27
- skill:
- 0
- they picked:
- NE
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive pick:
- NE
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- Game Outcome PicksNew York JetsSep 3, 2025
New York Jets to beat Patriots
“Now you're home for the Patriots... I took that loss in New England, so let's give us the win”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-200 skillHow this was scored
- won:
- NE
- score:
- 14-27
- skill:
- -200
- they picked:
- NYJ
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive pick:
- NE
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- Game Outcome PicksNew York JetsSep 3, 2025
New York Jets to beat Miami
“Monday night in Miami... Let's just go, I think we gotta even it up... Two and two. Let's go two and two.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-200 skillHow this was scored
- won:
- MIA
- score:
- 21-27
- skill:
- -200
- they picked:
- NYJ
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive pick:
- MIA
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- Game Outcome PicksNew York JetsSep 3, 2025
New York Jets to beat Bills
“Five wins in a row at the Bills... We go to Western New York, and we take it from the Bills. Six wins in a row.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skillHow this was scored
- won:
- BUF
- score:
- 30-10
- skill:
- 0
- they picked:
- NYJ
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- the naive pick:
- NYJ
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- Game Outcome PicksBuffalo BillsSep 3, 2025
Buffalo Bills to beat Jets
“O and one would be a problem because the Bills strolling the next week. No. No. No. No. I I'm starting to own to okay.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+200 skillHow this was scored
- won:
- BUF
- score:
- 30-10
- skill:
- 200
- they picked:
- BUF
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- the naive pick:
- NYJ
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- Game Outcome PicksNew York JetsSep 3, 2025
New York Jets to beat Dolphins
“Home for the Dolphins. Miami... I think at this point, Miami's a mess and we, we win. Seven and six”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-200 skillHow this was scored
- won:
- MIA
- score:
- 21-27
- skill:
- -200
- they picked:
- NYJ
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive pick:
- MIA
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- Game Outcome PicksNew York JetsSep 3, 2025
New York Jets to beat Cowboys
“I have us beaten the Cowboys... It's now three and two.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skillHow this was scored
- won:
- DAL
- score:
- 37-22
- skill:
- 0
- they picked:
- NYJ
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- the naive pick:
- NYJ
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- Game Outcome PicksPittsburgh SteelersSep 3, 2025
Pittsburgh Steelers to beat Jets
“as much as I want to give us the w here because, I just know how it goes for the Jets in these situations... O and one's I'm gonna start there.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+200 skillHow this was scored
- won:
- PIT
- score:
- 34-32
- skill:
- 200
- they picked:
- PIT
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- the naive pick:
- NYJ
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- Season Win TotalsNew York JetsSep 3, 2025
New York Jets to finish with 11 wins
“Eleven and six since Dylan O'Brien.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 25-50 skillHow this was scored
- team:
- NYJ
- naive:
- 6.75
- skill:
- -50
- what happened:
- 3
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- 5
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 25
- predicted:
- 11
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- Game Outcome PicksNew York JetsSep 3, 2025
New York Jets to beat Browns
“Home for the Browns. Gotta beat the Browns. It's five and four”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skillHow this was scored
- won:
- NYJ
- score:
- 20-27
- skill:
- 0
- they picked:
- NYJ
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive pick:
- NYJ
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- Game Outcome PicksDenver BroncosSep 3, 2025
Denver Broncos to beat Jets
“going into London to take on the Broncos... I gotta give us the l here. Okay. Three and three”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+200 skillHow this was scored
- won:
- DEN
- score:
- 13-11
- skill:
- 200
- they picked:
- DEN
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- the naive pick:
- NYJ
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- Game Outcome PicksCincinnati BengalsSep 3, 2025
Cincinnati Bengals to beat Jets
“Four and three at the Bengals. This is a this is a this is a loss for us. Four and four”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skillHow this was scored
- won:
- NYJ
- score:
- 39-38
- skill:
- 0
- they picked:
- CIN
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- the naive pick:
- CIN
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- Game Outcome PicksNew York JetsSep 3, 2025
New York Jets to beat New Orleans
“Beat New Orleans. That's four wins in a row.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-200 skillHow this was scored
- won:
- NO
- score:
- 6-29
- skill:
- -200
- they picked:
- NYJ
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive pick:
- NO
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- Game Outcome PicksNew York JetsSep 3, 2025
New York Jets to beat Jacksonville
“Yeah. Yeah. We beat Jacksonville.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-200 skillHow this was scored
- won:
- JAX
- score:
- 20-48
- skill:
- -200
- they picked:
- NYJ
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive pick:
- JAX
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- Game Outcome PicksNew York JetsSep 3, 2025
New York Jets to beat Falcons
“We're gonna surprise beat the Falcons. Six and six.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skillHow this was scored
- won:
- NYJ
- score:
- 24-27
- skill:
- 0
- they picked:
- NYJ
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive pick:
- NYJ
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- Game Outcome PicksBaltimore RavensSep 3, 2025
Baltimore Ravens to beat Jets
“I gotta give us two l's in a row here for New England and Baltimore. Okay. Five and five and five and six.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skillHow this was scored
- won:
- BAL
- score:
- 10-23
- skill:
- 0
- they picked:
- BAL
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive pick:
- BAL
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- Game Outcome PicksNew York JetsSep 3, 2025
New York Jets to beat Tampa
“so we're in Tampa... I have us penciled in for a surprise w.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-200 skillHow this was scored
- won:
- TB
- score:
- 27-29
- skill:
- -200
- they picked:
- NYJ
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive pick:
- TB
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- Game Outcome PicksNew York JetsSep 3, 2025
New York Jets to beat Panthers
“home for the Panthers. We gotta beat the Panthers. Four and three”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skillHow this was scored
- won:
- CAR
- score:
- 13-6
- skill:
- 0
- they picked:
- NYJ
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- the naive pick:
- NYJ
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
What others said about the same people
- Ethan HurwitzRoster Spot Calls · Jeremiah Pharms Jr.Miss · 0Hurwitz writes that the elevations of Jeremiah Pharms Jr. and Mike Brown likely mean Leonard Taylor III stays a healthy scratch and Joshua Farmer could be one too for the Week 3 game at Jacksonville, and that both elevated players will revert to the practice squad after Sunday.
- Randy GurziRoster Spot Calls · Te'Cory CouchMiss · 0Gurzi predicts the Buffalo Bills' final 53-man roster ahead of Week 1 against Houston, naming every player who makes it, who gets cut, and a few depth-chart outcomes (Damar Hamlin as backup safety, Alec Anderson as a new starter on the offensive line, Shane Buechele back on the practice squad).
- Joe MarinoRoster Spot Calls · Te'Cory CouchMiss · 0Joe Marino gives his final projection of the Buffalo Bills' initial 53-man roster after the preseason finale, naming who makes it, who gets cut, and who lands on injured reserve/PUP, along with several starting-job calls (Kyle Allen as QB2, TJ Sanders starting over Landon Jackson, Maxwell Hairston starting opposite Christian Benford, and Tommy Doman winning the punting job).
- Chad JensenRoster Spot Calls · Jonah ColemanMiss · 0Jensen expects the Broncos to sign fullback Adam Prentice to the active 53-man roster early the following week rather than risk losing him on waivers, with a corresponding cut coming Monday. He also anticipates Denver will clear a roster spot for Jonah Coleman once the running back's four-game IR stint ends around Week 7.
- Nathan JahnkeRoster Spot Calls · Elijah SarrattHit · 100An unsigned PFF preseason recap makes numerous depth-chart, roster and usage projections across the league, based on Week 3 preseason playing time — including Roman Wilson winning Pittsburgh's third receiver job, Luke McCaffrey's roster spot being in danger, Charlie Kolar as the Chargers' top tight end, and Kendre Miller as the Saints' RB2.
- Nathan JahnkeRoster Spot Calls · Elijah SarrattHit · 100PFF's preseason fantasy recap makes a series of depth-chart, roster and usage projections based on final-week preseason snap counts, including Ja'Kobi Lane locking down the Ravens' third receiver role, Luke McCaffrey's roster spot being in danger, Kyle Pitts facing reduced 12-personnel usage, Kendre Miller as the Saints' RB2 and Emmett Johnson as the Chiefs' backup running back.
More game outcome picks
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
- Richard ShermanGame Outcome Picks · Green Bay PackersMiss · 0Sherman picked winners and several exact scores across the Week 3 slate, favoring Seattle, San Francisco, Cincinnati, Detroit, Green Bay, Carolina, New Orleans, Baltimore, the Rams, Philadelphia, Buffalo, Kansas City, Minnesota, the Giants, Jacksonville and Houston, and named Kenneth Walker his MVP.
- Bill HuberGame Outcome Picks · Green Bay PackersMiss · 0Huber forecasts the Packers starting 3-4 through seven games — losing at Minnesota and Tampa Bay, beating the Jets and Falcons, losing to the Bears — and finishing the season with about eight wins.
- Jared DubinGame Outcome Picks · Los Angeles RamsHit · 100Dubin picks the Rams to beat the Giants on Monday Night Football, sticking with preseason expectations over Week 1 overreaction. He gives two conditional scores depending on whether Puka Nacua plays: a comfortable 27-17 win if Nacua suits up, and a narrow 17-16 win if he sits.
- Dan OrlovskyGame Outcome Picks · Los Angeles RamsHit · 100Orlovsky said that even without Puka Nacua the Rams would find a way to beat the Giants on Monday night, though he thought the Giants would keep it within a touchdown.
- Patricia TrainaGame Outcome Picks · New York GiantsMiss · 0In her weekly Giants mailbag, Traina said the Giants would beat the Rams if Los Angeles didn't play its best, predicted Aaron Donald wouldn't play a full game Monday night, and said she doesn't expect Paulson Adebo to still be with the Giants in 2027.
- Danny ParkinsGame Outcome Picks · New York GiantsMiss · 0Parkins picked the Giants to beat the Rams outright, backed Jacksonville over Denver, Cincinnati over Houston and Chicago over Minnesota in the chips segment, endorsed Buffalo as the AFC's Super Bowl representative, and predicted Deshaun Watson has started his last NFL game.