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Gregg Rosenthal· Feb 28, 2025

Rosenthal called Alabama linebacker Jihad Campbell a first-round pick, said Trey Smith and Tee Higgins will not reach free agency, and predicted Matthew Stafford ends up with either the Raiders or Rams rather than the Giants.

“I know teams don't want to draft three down linebackers too early, so he's he's a first round pick.”

said on air or in an interview · Around the NFL (podcast) · read the original →

The page this came from has changed since we captured it on Aug 5, 2026. The quote and evidence above are from our capture, not from what the page says today.

4 checkable claims — 3 trade and signing calls and 1 mock draft pick — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.

It names 5 players and teams, each linked to their own record.

3 of 4 have settled so far, averaging 33.3 out of 100, against 83.3 for a naive guess at the same calls.

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Who this take is about

4 checkable claims in this take

Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.

  • Trade and Signing CallsTrey SmithKansas City ChiefsFeb 28, 2025

    Trey Smith to move to Kansas City Chiefs

    “And Trey Smith number two on my top one on one. He will not make it to free agency.”

    Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-200 skill
    How this was scored
    skill:
    -200
    player:
    Trey Smith
    season:
    2025
    claimed:
    he leaves
    was with:
    KC
    accuracy:
    0
    baseline:
    100
    difficulty:
    2
    the naive guess:
    he stays where he is
    weeks in the season:
    18
    ended up with:
    KC
    weeks left when called:
    18

    Think this is wrong?

  • Trade and Signing CallsTee HigginsFeb 28, 2025

    Tee Higgins to move — “will not make it to free agency”

    “He will not make it to free agency. Neither will t Higgins, who's number one.”

    Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-200 skill
    How this was scored
    skill:
    -200
    player:
    Tee Higgins
    season:
    2025
    claimed:
    he leaves
    was with:
    CIN
    accuracy:
    0
    baseline:
    100
    difficulty:
    2
    the naive guess:
    he stays where he is
    weeks in the season:
    18
    ended up with:
    CIN
    weeks left when called:
    18

    Think this is wrong?

  • Mock Draft PicksJihaad CampbellFeb 28, 2025

    Jihaad Campbell to be picked “first round pick” (picks 1–32)

    “I know teams don't want to draft three down linebackers too early, so he's he's a first round pick. We'll see how high he goes.”

    Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 50
    How this was scored
    draft:
    2025
    naive:
    a shuffled mock scores 50
    player:
    Jihaad Campbell
    season:
    2024
    zero at:
    32
    accuracy:
    100
    baseline:
    50
    actual pick:
    31
    difficulty:
    1
    weeks in the season:
    18
    pick accuracy:
    100
    predicted pick:
    first round pick (picks 1–32)
    weeks left when called:
    0
    mock ordering score:
    only one pick — no order to score

    Think this is wrong?

  • Trade and Signing CallsMatthew StaffordFeb 28, 2025

    Matthew Stafford to move — “Raiders or Rams”

    “To me, it feels nick and I'll end my long rant here that it's Raiders or Rams. I'd be kind of stunned if the Giants end up getting this thing done”

    Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.

    Think this is wrong?

What others said about the same people

More trade and signing calls

The same kind of call, about other players and teams.

Discussed alongside these

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