Marcus Mosher · Sep 3, 2024

Mosher's Week 1 power rankings put the Chiefs first, 49ers second and Lions third, with the Patriots last. Along the way he predicts double-digit wins for Buffalo, a playoff return for the Rams, a Jets playoff berth if Rodgers stays healthy, calls the Bears an NFC sleeper, and says New England's offense will be the league's worst.

“As long as Patrick Mahomes is healthy, it will be a while before anyone overtakes the Kansas City Chiefs at the No. 1 spot.”

published in writing · The 33rd Team · read the original →

12 checkable claims from this

Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.

Depth Chart CallsSep 3, 2024
“Bo Nix is the Denver Broncos' Week 1 starter”
Scored 100a naive guess scored 91.67+16.67 skill
How this was scored
club:
DEN
skill:
16.67
player:
Bo Nix
season:
2024
accuracy:
100
baseline:
91.67
position:
QB
naive slot:
2
actual slot:
1
difficulty:
2
measured by:
passing yards
naive basis:
no prior season — a rookie is assumed to start behind the incumbent
weeks in the season:
18
predicted slot:
1
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?
Playoff PicksSep 3, 2024
“If he can stay healthy for 15 or more games, the Jets will be in the playoffs.”
Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-200 skill
How this was scored
team:
NYJ
skill:
-200
season:
2024
accuracy:
0
baseline:
100
naive said:
false
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
made playoffs:
false
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?
Depth Chart CallsSep 3, 2024
“Gardner Minshew is the starter in Las Vegas, but don't expect the leash to be very long.”
Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skill
How this was scored
club:
LV
skill:
0
player:
Gardner Minshew
season:
2024
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
position:
QB
naive slot:
1
actual slot:
1
difficulty:
2
measured by:
passing yards
naive basis:
where he sat last season
weeks in the season:
18
predicted slot:
1
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?
Depth Chart CallsSep 3, 2024
“Derek Carr is the starter in New Orleans”
Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skill
How this was scored
club:
NO
skill:
0
player:
Derek Carr
season:
2024
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
position:
QB
naive slot:
1
actual slot:
1
difficulty:
2
measured by:
passing yards
naive basis:
where he sat last season
weeks in the season:
18
predicted slot:
1
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?
Depth Chart CallsSep 3, 2024
“That is until Maye eventually takes over.”
Scored 100a naive guess scored 91.67+16.67 skill
How this was scored
club:
NE
skill:
16.67
player:
Drake Maye
season:
2024
accuracy:
100
baseline:
91.67
position:
QB
naive slot:
2
actual slot:
1
difficulty:
2
measured by:
passing yards
naive basis:
no prior season — a rookie is assumed to start behind the incumbent
weeks in the season:
18
predicted slot:
1
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?
Season Win TotalsSep 3, 2024
“look for Josh Allen to find a way to post double-digit wins again”
Scored 40a naive guess scored 35+10 skill
How this was scored
team:
BUF
naive:
9.75
skill:
10
what happened:
13
season:
2024
zero at:
5
accuracy:
40
baseline:
35
predicted:
10
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?
Power RankingsSep 3, 2024
“NFL Week 1 Power Rankings 1. Kansas City Chiefs ... 32. New England Patriots”
Scored 71.55a naive guess scored 67.38+8.36 skill
How this was scored
skill:
8.36
method:
spearman
season:
2024
accuracy:
71.55
baseline:
67.38
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
teams ranked:
32
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?
Playoff PicksSep 3, 2024
“the offense for the Rams is good enough to get them back to the postseason in 2024”
Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skill
How this was scored
team:
LAR
skill:
0
season:
2024
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
naive said:
true
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
made playoffs:
true
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?
Surprise Team CallsSep 3, 2024
“With Kyler Murray fully healthy, the Arizona Cardinals are a stealth wild-card team in the NFC.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the season it describes has finished.
Think this is wrong?
Trade and Signing CallsSep 3, 2024
“At this point, it only seems like a matter of time before the Giants move on from Daniel Jones.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the season it describes has finished.
Think this is wrong?
Mock Draft PicksSep 3, 2024
“he'll likely be the reason why the Giants are picking inside the top 10 again next year”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the season it describes has finished.
Think this is wrong?
Surprise Team CallsSep 3, 2024
“The Bears are officially a sleeper in the NFC.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the season it describes has finished.
Think this is wrong?