Marcus Mosher· Sep 3, 2024
Mosher's Week 1 power rankings put the Chiefs first, 49ers second and Lions third, with the Patriots last. Along the way he predicts double-digit wins for Buffalo, a playoff return for the Rams, a Jets playoff berth if Rodgers stays healthy, calls the Bears an NFC sleeper, and says New England's offense will be the league's worst.
“As long as Patrick Mahomes is healthy, it will be a while before anyone overtakes the Kansas City Chiefs at the No. 1 spot.”
published in writing · The 33rd Team · read the original (as archived Sep 3, 2024) →
The page this came from has since been taken down. The archived copy above is the record of what it said.
12 checkable claims — 4 depth chart calls, 2 playoff picks, 2 surprise team calls, 1 power ranking, 1 season win total, 1 team draft slot call and 1 trade and signing call — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.
It names 15 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
10 of 12 have settled so far, averaging 81.2 out of 100, against 88.6 for a naive guess at the same calls.
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Who this take is about
12 checkable claims in this take
Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.
Daniel Jones to move to New York Giants
“At this point, it only seems like a matter of time before the Giants move on from Daniel Jones.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skillHow this was scored
- skill:
- 0
- player:
- Daniel Jones
- season:
- 2024
- claimed:
- NYG
- was with:
- NYG
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- difficulty:
- 2
- the naive guess:
- he stays where he is
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- ended up with:
- NYG/MIN
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- Season Win TotalsBuffalo BillsSep 3, 2024
Buffalo Bills to finish with 10 wins
“look for Josh Allen to find a way to post double-digit wins again”
Close · 40Scored 40a naive guess scored 35+10 skillHow this was scored
- team:
- BUF
- naive:
- 9.75
- skill:
- 10
- what happened:
- 13
- season:
- 2024
- zero at:
- 5
- accuracy:
- 40
- baseline:
- 35
- predicted:
- 10
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
Drake Maye to be 1st on the depth chart
“That is until Maye eventually takes over.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 91.67+16.67 skillHow this was scored
- club:
- NE
- skill:
- 16.67
- player:
- Drake Maye
- season:
- 2024
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 91.67
- position:
- QB
- naive slot:
- 2
- actual slot:
- 1
- difficulty:
- 2
- measured by:
- passing yards
- the naive guess:
- no prior season — a rookie is assumed to start behind the incumbent
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- predicted slot:
- 1
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- Depth Chart CallsBo NixDenver BroncosSep 3, 2024
Bo Nix to be 1st on the depth chart
“Bo Nix is the Denver Broncos' Week 1 starter”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 91.67+16.67 skillHow this was scored
- club:
- DEN
- skill:
- 16.67
- player:
- Bo Nix
- season:
- 2024
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 91.67
- position:
- QB
- naive slot:
- 2
- actual slot:
- 1
- difficulty:
- 2
- measured by:
- passing yards
- the naive guess:
- no prior season — a rookie is assumed to start behind the incumbent
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- predicted slot:
- 1
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- Team Draft Slot CallsNew York GiantsSep 3, 2024
New York Giants to pick “inside the top 10” (picks 1–10)
“he'll likely be the reason why the Giants are picking inside the top 10 again next year”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skillHow this was scored
- team:
- NYG
- draft:
- 2025
- naive:
- they picked 6 the year before
- skill:
- 0
- season:
- 2024
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- actual pick:
- 3
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- predicted pick:
- inside the top 10 (picks 1–10)
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- Playoff PicksNew York JetsSep 3, 2024
New York Jets to make the playoffs
“If he can stay healthy for 15 or more games, the Jets will be in the playoffs.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-200 skillHow this was scored
- team:
- NYJ
- skill:
- -200
- season:
- 2024
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive guess said:
- no
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- made the playoffs:
- no
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- Playoff PicksLos Angeles RamsSep 3, 2024
Los Angeles Rams to make the playoffs
“the offense for the Rams is good enough to get them back to the postseason in 2024”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skillHow this was scored
- team:
- LAR
- skill:
- 0
- season:
- 2024
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive guess said:
- yes
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- made the playoffs:
- yes
- weeks left when called:
- 18
Derek Carr to be 1st on the depth chart
“Derek Carr is the starter in New Orleans”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skillHow this was scored
- club:
- NO
- skill:
- 0
- player:
- Derek Carr
- season:
- 2024
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- position:
- QB
- naive slot:
- 1
- actual slot:
- 1
- difficulty:
- 2
- measured by:
- passing yards
- the naive guess:
- where he sat last season
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- predicted slot:
- 1
- weeks left when called:
- 18
Gardner Minshew to be 1st on the depth chart
“Gardner Minshew is the starter in Las Vegas, but don't expect the leash to be very long.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skillHow this was scored
- club:
- LV
- skill:
- 0
- player:
- Gardner Minshew
- season:
- 2024
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- position:
- QB
- naive slot:
- 1
- actual slot:
- 1
- difficulty:
- 2
- measured by:
- passing yards
- the naive guess:
- where he sat last season
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- predicted slot:
- 1
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- Power RankingsSep 3, 2024
“NFL Week 1 Power Rankings 1. Kansas City Chiefs ... 32. New England Patriots”
Close · 72Scored 71.55a naive guess scored 67.38+8.36 skillHow this was scored
- skill:
- 8.36
- method:
- spearman
- season:
- 2024
- accuracy:
- 71.55
- baseline:
- 67.38
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- teams ranked:
- 32
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- Surprise Team CallsArizona CardinalsSep 3, 2024
Arizona Cardinals to beat expectations
“With Kyler Murray fully healthy, the Arizona Cardinals are a stealth wild-card team in the NFC.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
- Surprise Team CallsChicago BearsSep 3, 2024
Chicago Bears to beat expectations
“The Bears are officially a sleeper in the NFC.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
What others said about the same people
- Mike MoraitisDepth Chart Calls · Ozzy TrapiloMiss · 0Moraitis writes that although Braxton Jones has looked like the favorite, Ozzy Trapilo is likely to take over as the Bears' starting left tackle once he's healthy enough to play.
- Pete MartuneacDepth Chart Calls · Ozzy TrapiloMiss · 0After Trapilo's activation from the PUP list roughly seven months after rupturing his patellar tendon, Martuneac says the Bears' left tackle competition is over and Trapilo will be starting at left tackle early in the 2026 season, even if not by Week 1.
- Henry McKennaDepth Chart Calls · Carson BeckMiss · 0McKenna predicts Kyler Murray will win the Vikings' starting QB job over J.J. McCarthy, that Minnesota will make the playoffs if Murray cuts out the hero ball, that both QBs will play in 2026, and wonders whether rookie Carson Beck could unseat Jacoby Brissett as Arizona's Week 1 starter.
- Fernando Alfaro-DonisTrade and Signing Calls · Kayshon BoutteMiss · 0Argues the Raiders' weakest spot is their receiver room, expects Jalen Nailor to take a big step forward in Klint Kubiak's scheme with Kirk Cousins starting before Fernando Mendoza takes over, and suggests Las Vegas should trade a mid-round pick for Patriots receiver Kayshon Boutte, who would immediately become their top option.
- Brandon CarneyTrade and Signing Calls · Stefon DiggsMiss · 0Carney drafted a team of rookies he expects to make an immediate fantasy impact (headlined by Karnell Tate and Makai Lemon), predicted landing spots for the remaining big-name free agents, and gave way-too-early division winners, wild cards and award picks — Patriots, Chargers, Bengals, Jaguars, Eagles, Rams, Vikings and Saints as division champs with Joe Burrow as MVP.
- Jared DubinScore Predictions · Denver BroncosMiss · 2Dubin picks Denver to win narrowly in Kansas City, 21-20.
More depth chart calls
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
- Tyler SullivanDepth Chart Calls · Drew LockMiss · 0In an unsigned Week 2 odds roundup, the piece states that with Sam Darnold hurt, Drew Lock will likely start at quarterback for Seattle against Arizona.
- Ralph VacchianoDepth Chart Calls · Tua TagovailoaMiss · 0Vacchiano ranks all 32 NFL teams entering the 2026 season, with the Rams first and Dolphins last. He also flags the Giants as a potential surprise team with a top-10 defense, and notes Deshaun Watson won Cleveland's QB job while Tua Tagovailoa starts Week 1 in Atlanta.
- Pat FitzmauriceDepth Chart Calls · Kyler MurrayHit · 100Fitzmaurice touts Kyler Murray as a value QB who will start Week 1 for Minnesota, Tyler Shough as the Saints' undisputed starter, and Juwan Johnson and Terrance Ferguson as late-round tight end targets.
- Pat FitzmauriceDepth Chart Calls · Kyler MurrayHit · 100Fitzmaurice expects Kyler Murray to be Minnesota's Week 1 starter and calls him one of the better quarterback values in 2026 drafts; he also views Jordan Love as a top-10 real-life quarterback but only a QB2 in fantasy.
- Steven RuizDepth Chart Calls · Michael Penix Jr.Miss · 0In a retrospective tiering of all 32 starting quarterbacks, Ruiz treats Michael Penix Jr. as the Falcons' Week 1 starter over Kirk Cousins, whom he places in his lowest tier.
- Mike FlorioDepth Chart Calls · Shedeur SandersMiss · 0Florio reports the Browns will start Deshaun Watson in Week 1 but predicts Shedeur Sanders will likely be the starting quarterback by Week 3.