Benjamin Solak· Aug 2, 2026
Solak predicts the 2022 draft will see more running backs than quarterbacks taken in the first round — possibly three backs to two passers — that Carson Strong will be drafted ahead of Malik Willis, that Kayvon Thibodeaux won't be the first defensive lineman off the board, that eight defensive players will be selected in the top 10, and that Spencer Rattler will end up as the clear top prospect in the class.
“I think it's possible we see only two passers up against three backs come April.”
published in writing · The Draft Network · read the original (as archived Jul 29, 2021) →
The page this came from has since been taken down. The archived copy above is the record of what it said.
3 checkable claims — 2 mock draft picks and 1 prospect vs prospect call — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.
It names 3 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
2 of 3 have settled so far, averaging 0.1 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess at the same calls.
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Who this take is about
3 checkable claims in this take
Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.
- Prospect vs Prospect CallsCarson StrongAug 2, 2026
Carson Strong to be drafted ahead of Malik Willis
“If they both came out right now, Strong should and would be the higher drafted player given his current profile as a passer; barring major strides from Willis in just one offseason, Strong will likely always have that advantage on him.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 50-50 skillHow this was scored
- claim:
- Carson Strong drafted ahead of Malik Willis
- draft:
- 2022
- skill:
- -50
- what happened:
- Carson Strong went undrafted, Malik Willis went 86
- player:
- Carson Strong
- season:
- 2026
- correct:
- no
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 50
- compared to:
- Malik Willis
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- Mock Draft PicksSpencer RattlerAug 2, 2026
Spencer Rattler to be picked “clear top spot in the draft class overall; top 10 pick” (picks 1–10)
“But when Rattler ascends to the clear top spot in this draft class overall—something I expect will happen”
Miss · 0Scored 0.23a naive guess scored 50How this was scored
- draft:
- 2024
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- player:
- Spencer Rattler
- season:
- 2026
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 0.23
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 150
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 0.23
- predicted pick:
- clear top spot in the draft class overall; top 10 pick (picks 1–10)
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- only one pick — no order to score
- Mock Draft PicksKayvon ThibodeauxAug 2, 2026
Kayvon Thibodeaux to be picked “not the first defensive lineman drafted”
“Kayvon Thibodeaux Isn't First Defensive Lineman Drafted”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
What others said about the same people
- Ross JacksonRoster Spot Calls · Spencer RattlerHit · 100Ross Jackson gives his final preseason 53-man roster projection for the New Orleans Saints, naming who makes the initial roster at every position group, who starts on injured reserve or the practice squad, and who the five starting offensive linemen and kicker will be.
- Ross JacksonRoster Spot Calls · Spencer RattlerHit · 100Ross Jackson projects the New Orleans Saints' offensive 53-man roster: three quarterbacks with Tyler Shough starting and Spencer Rattler as the backup, four running backs including Alvin Kamara, six wide receivers with Jalen Polk making it, three tight ends, ten offensive linemen with a set starting five, and Charlie Smith at kicker.
- LaVar ArringtonRoster Spot Calls · Kayvon ThibodeauxHit · 100Arrington argued the Giants will keep both Brian Burns and Kayvon Thibodeaux rather than moving on from either.
- Jack McKessyAward Picks · Kayvon ThibodeauxMiss · 0McKessy's way-too-early 2022 NFL awards predictions: Mahomes for MVP, Jonathan Taylor for OPOY, Aaron Donald (or Micah Parsons if Donald retires) for DPOY, Kenny Pickett for OROY, Kayvon Thibodeaux for DROY, Michael Thomas for Comeback Player, and Mike Tomlin for Coach of the Year.
- Patricia TrainaRoster Spot Calls · Kayvon ThibodeauxPendingTraina projects the Giants' initial 53-man roster position by position, naming who makes the team and who lands on the practice squad, including keeping Tyrone Tracy Jr. and Evan Neal (with a possible trade), Dalen Cambre over Braxton Berrios, Lucas Patrick as backup center, and Dominic Zvada as the kicker.
- Bryan DeArdoTrade and Signing Calls · Kayvon ThibodeauxPendingA CBS Sports piece lists veterans it expects could be traded before the 53-man roster deadline, including quarterbacks Anthony Richardson (with Buffalo floated as a landing spot), J.J. McCarthy and Will Howard, plus Jerry Jeudy, Joey Porter Jr., Tyrone Tracy Jr., Kayvon Thibodeaux, Josh Sweat, Kristian Fulton and Marist Liufau. It also says Mason Rudolph's and Drew Allar's roster spots in Pittsburgh are secure.
More mock draft picks
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
- Lance ZierleinMock Draft Picks · Jeremiyah LoveHit · 100Zierlein laid out his final mock draft: Jeremiah Love at No. 3 to Arizona, Sonny Styles at No. 4 to Robert Saleh's team, and Caleb Downs to the Giants at No. 5. He also called Styles the only first-round linebacker in the class and said Ty Simpson is a lock to be a first-round pick, most likely to Arizona.
- Nick ShookMock Draft Picks · Max IheanachorHit · 88Shook walks through his full first-round mock draft, assigning a prospect to every pick from No. 1 to No. 32, headlined by Fernando Mendoza to the Raiders, David Bailey to the Jets and Jeremiah Love to the Cardinals in the top three.
- Gregg RosenthalMock Draft Picks · K.C. ConcepcionClose · 68Rosenthal disagrees most with Casey Concepcion being left out of the first round, arguing he could go as high as the top 15 and certainly won't last past receiver-needy teams in the late twenties.
- Daniel JeremiahMock Draft Picks · Keyron CrawfordHit · 81In discussing teams without first-round picks, Jeremiah projected specific Day 2 picks: Clemson WR Antonio Williams to the Falcons at 48, Texas Tech LB Jacob Rodriguez to the Colts in the second round, Oklahoma edge R Mason Thomas to the Packers at 52, and Auburn edge Keiroon Crawford to the Broncos at 62. He also expects Riley Leonard to open as the Colts' starting QB and Travis Hunter to play cornerback full time in Jacksonville.
- Daniel JeremiahMock Draft Picks · Carnell TateHit · 92Jeremiah says Denver, not Kansas City, will be the clear favorite in the AFC West this season; he also puts Carnell Tate sixth and Monroe Freeling twentieth on his prospect board, mocks Tate to Cleveland at No. 6, and expects Georgia receiver Branch to be a Day 2 pick after a strong pro day.
- Bucky BrooksMock Draft Picks · Carnell TateHit · 81In a mock draft covering the first 14 picks, Brooks made the odd-numbered selections: Fernando Mendoza to the Raiders at No. 1, a Miami offensive lineman to Arizona at No. 3, Caleb Downs to the Giants at No. 5, Ohio State's Arvell Reese to Washington at No. 7, Carnell Tate to Kansas City at No. 9, tight end Kenyon Sadiq to Miami at No. 11, and Spencer Fano to the Rams at No. 13.