Jack McKessy· Feb 18, 2022

McKessy's way-too-early 2022 NFL awards predictions: Mahomes for MVP, Jonathan Taylor for OPOY, Aaron Donald (or Micah Parsons if Donald retires) for DPOY, Kenny Pickett for OROY, Kayvon Thibodeaux for DROY, Michael Thomas for Comeback Player, and Mike Tomlin for Coach of the Year.

“The fifth-year starter will return to his early-season form with no picks in September and ride that momentum to high production and his second MVP award.”

published in writing · The Draft Network · read the original (as archived Aug 17, 2022) →

The page this came from has since been taken down. The archived copy above is the record of what it said.

8 checkable claims — 7 award picks and 1 position order call — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.

It names 12 players and teams, each linked to their own record.

All 8 have settled, averaging 12.5 out of 100, against 17 for a naive guess at the same calls.

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Who this take is about

8 checkable claims in this take

Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.

Award Picks Kenny PickettFeb 18, 2022
Kenny Pickett to win Offensive Rookie of the Year
“OROY: Kenny Pickett ... I still feel pretty decent about going with Pickett here.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skill
How this was scored
award:
offensive_rookie_of_the_year
naive:
the naive pick was Justin Herbert, who won it the year before
skill:
0
player:
08386c54-0d9e-4e77-948e-b0e307f096dc
season:
2021
winner:
Ja'Marr Chase
correct:
no
accuracy:
0
baseline:
0
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
0
Think this is wrong?
Award Picks Patrick Mahomes Kansas City ChiefsFeb 18, 2022
Patrick Mahomes to win MVP
“MVP: Patrick Mahomes ... ride that momentum to high production and his second MVP award.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-100 skill
How this was scored
award:
mvp
naive:
the naive pick was Aaron Rodgers, who won it the year before
skill:
-100
player:
Patrick Mahomes
season:
2021
winner:
Aaron Rodgers
correct:
no
accuracy:
0
baseline:
100
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
0
Think this is wrong?
Award Picks Michael Thomas New Orleans SaintsFeb 18, 2022
Michael Thomas to win Comeback Player of the Year
“CPOY: Michael Thomas ... Thomas is a pretty safe bet here though.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skill
How this was scored
award:
comeback_player_of_the_year
naive:
the naive pick was b206a6f9-ca9b-4704-90c4-1d8eda1a6933, who won it the year before
skill:
0
player:
cb856bb4-8c39-44b4-9347-dfb05765f369
season:
2021
winner:
Joe Burrow
correct:
no
accuracy:
0
baseline:
0
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
0
Think this is wrong?
Award Picks Aaron Donald Los Angeles RamsFeb 18, 2022
Aaron Donald to win Defensive Player of the Year
“DPOY: Aaron Donald OR Micah Parsons ... it would be hard not to pick him here.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skill
How this was scored
award:
defensive_player_of_the_year
naive:
the naive pick was Aaron Donald, who won it the year before
skill:
0
player:
Aaron Donald
season:
2021
winner:
T.J. Watt
correct:
no
accuracy:
0
baseline:
0
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
0
Think this is wrong?
Award Picks Micah Parsons Dallas CowboysFeb 18, 2022
Micah Parsons to win Defensive Player of the Year
“If Donald does retire, it's Parsons who takes home this award.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skill
How this was scored
award:
defensive_player_of_the_year
naive:
the naive pick was Aaron Donald, who won it the year before
skill:
0
player:
Micah Parsons
season:
2021
winner:
T.J. Watt
correct:
no
accuracy:
0
baseline:
0
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
0
Think this is wrong?
Award Picks Kayvon ThibodeauxFeb 18, 2022
Kayvon Thibodeaux to win Defensive Rookie of the Year
“DROY: Kayvon Thibodeaux ... Thibodeaux is probably going to dominate no matter where he ends up.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skill
How this was scored
award:
defensive_rookie_of_the_year
naive:
the naive pick was Chase Young, who won it the year before
skill:
0
player:
4dd2754a-53c3-44ad-a6d6-b795519224b4
season:
2021
winner:
Micah Parsons
correct:
no
accuracy:
0
baseline:
0
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
0
Think this is wrong?
Award Picks Jonathan Taylor Indianapolis ColtsFeb 18, 2022
Jonathan Taylor to win Offensive Player of the Year
“OPOY: Jonathan Taylor ... Taylor is my choice here.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skill
How this was scored
award:
offensive_player_of_the_year
naive:
the naive pick was Derrick Henry, who won it the year before
skill:
0
player:
Jonathan Taylor
season:
2021
winner:
Cooper Kupp
correct:
no
accuracy:
0
baseline:
0
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
0
Think this is wrong?
Position Order Calls Kenny PickettFeb 18, 2022
Kenny Pickett to be the first or second quarterback off the board quarterback off the board
“Pickett will likely be the first or second quarterback off the board in this year's draft”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 36.26+63.74 skill
How this was scored
draft:
2022
naive:
naming one of the 9 at random averages 36.26
skill:
63.74
player:
Kenny Pickett
season:
2021
zero at:
credit halves every two places
accuracy:
100
baseline:
36.26
position:
quarterback
class size:
9
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
actual order:
1
predicted order:
1–2
weeks left when called:
0
Think this is wrong?

What others said about the same people

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Who this take is about

8 checkable claims in this take

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