LaVar Arrington
A limited sample — under 30 graded articles.
100% of their claims were specific enough to check. Most of what they said committed to something.
Every number here is computed from the published methodology, and every call below shows its own arithmetic.
What they call, and how it goes
The record split by kind of claim — five graded calls minimum before a kind shows here. A pundit can be sharp on drafts and ordinary on game picks, and averaging that away is how a number stops meaning anything.
- Game Outcome Picks37 graded53.94 accuracy
- Power Rankings8 graded56.88 accuracy
- Playoff Picks6 graded66.67 accuracy
Form
Rolling accuracy over their last fifteen graded calls, in the order the claims were made. The dashed line is their career average — the question this answers is whether the number above is who they are or who they were.
Graded calls · 53
- In the Week 16 picks segment, LaVar took the Packers on the money line at Chicago, the Panthers on the money line against Tampa Bay, the Broncos to cover against Jacksonville, the Patriots on the money line at Baltimore, and the 49ers to cover at Indianapolis.3 graded calls · Dec 19, 2025
“Niners will cover oo oo. Sticks picks.”
Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+117 skillHow this was scored
- won:
- SF
- score:
- 48-27
- skill:
- 117
- they picked:
- SF
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- naive pick:
- IND
- difficulty:
- 1.17
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 3
“Broncos will cover. Stick's picks.”
Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skillHow this was scored
- won:
- JAX
- score:
- 34-20
- skill:
- 0
- they picked:
- DEN
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- naive pick:
- DEN
- difficulty:
- 1.17
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 3
“I'm money Line in New England. Sticks picks”
Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+117 skillHow this was scored
- won:
- NE
- score:
- 28-24
- skill:
- 117
- they picked:
- NE
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- naive pick:
- BAL
- difficulty:
- 1.17
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 3
- LaVar Arrington took moneyline picks on Seattle, Detroit, Minnesota, Kansas City and the Chargers for Week 11.2 graded calls · Nov 14, 2025
“I'm going to money Line Detroit Stoptics.”
Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-144 skillHow this was scored
- won:
- PHI
- score:
- 9-16
- skill:
- -144
- they picked:
- DET
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 100
- naive pick:
- PHI
- difficulty:
- 1.44
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 8
“Hey, LeVar. You wanted the chargers right, yes, yeah, it sticks picks.”
Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-144 skillHow this was scored
- won:
- JAX
- score:
- 6-35
- skill:
- -144
- they picked:
- LAC
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 100
- naive pick:
- JAX
- difficulty:
- 1.44
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 8
- Arrington took Tampa Bay to cover against New England, the Jaguars to cover at Houston, San Francisco with the points against the Rams, and Philadelphia on the moneyline at Green Bay.2 graded calls · Nov 7, 2025
“I gotta jump on the back of that horse with my boy Q money line.”
Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+150 skillHow this was scored
- won:
- PHI
- score:
- 10-7
- skill:
- 150
- they picked:
- PHI
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- naive pick:
- GB
- difficulty:
- 1.5
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 9
“I'm gonna take the bucks to cover on this one... I'm gonna go with Tampa to cover”
Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skillHow this was scored
- won:
- NE
- score:
- 28-23
- skill:
- 0
- they picked:
- TB
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- naive pick:
- TB
- difficulty:
- 1.5
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 9
- Arrington picked the Vikings, Steelers, Falcons, Broncos and Chiefs in his weekly against-the-spread selections.4 graded calls · Oct 31, 2025
“I'm going to take the Chiefs to cover man”
Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-156 skillHow this was scored
- won:
- BUF
- score:
- 21-28
- skill:
- -156
- they picked:
- KC
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 100
- naive pick:
- BUF
- difficulty:
- 1.56
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 10
“I'm gonna take the points with the Falcons”
Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-156 skillHow this was scored
- won:
- NE
- score:
- 23-24
- skill:
- -156
- they picked:
- ATL
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 100
- naive pick:
- NE
- difficulty:
- 1.56
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 10
“I'm going to money line the Steelers”
Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skillHow this was scored
- won:
- PIT
- score:
- 20-27
- skill:
- 0
- they picked:
- PIT
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- naive pick:
- PIT
- difficulty:
- 1.56
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 10
“I don't understand how they're favored it in this game at home... I'm going money line with this one as well.”
Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+156 skillHow this was scored
- won:
- DEN
- score:
- 18-15
- skill:
- 156
- they picked:
- DEN
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- naive pick:
- HOU
- difficulty:
- 1.56
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 10
- Arrington took the Ravens to cover against the Bears, picked the Cowboys on the money line to win outright in Denver, and picked Green Bay to cover at Pittsburgh.3 graded calls · Oct 24, 2025
“Yeah, I'm gonna take the Ravens to cover.”
Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skillHow this was scored
- won:
- BAL
- score:
- 16-30
- skill:
- 0
- they picked:
- BAL
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- naive pick:
- BAL
- difficulty:
- 1.61
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 11
“I believe green Bay will cover. I'm gonna go with green Bay.”
Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+161 skillHow this was scored
- won:
- GB
- score:
- 35-25
- skill:
- 161
- they picked:
- GB
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- naive pick:
- PIT
- difficulty:
- 1.61
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 11
“I'm going money lining to Cowboys on this one.”
Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-161 skillHow this was scored
- won:
- DEN
- score:
- 24-44
- skill:
- -161
- they picked:
- DAL
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 100
- naive pick:
- DEN
- difficulty:
- 1.61
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 11
- Arrington's Week 7 picks: Rams over the Jaguars, Vikings on the money line against the Eagles, Chargers over the Colts, Buccaneers getting points at Detroit, and the Texans on the money line at Seattle.5 graded calls · Oct 17, 2025
“I can money line them. They're the underdog... I'm going to money line and say that they're going to win.”
Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skillHow this was scored
- won:
- PHI
- score:
- 28-22
- skill:
- 0
- they picked:
- MIN
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- naive pick:
- MIN
- difficulty:
- 1.67
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 12
“I'm gonna take the Rams to cover sticks picks”
Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+167 skillHow this was scored
- won:
- LAR
- score:
- 35-7
- skill:
- 167
- they picked:
- LAR
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- naive pick:
- JAX
- difficulty:
- 1.67
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 12
“I gotta go with the Chargers. Man, I'm gonna go with the Chargers.”
Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skillHow this was scored
- won:
- IND
- score:
- 38-24
- skill:
- 0
- they picked:
- LAC
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- naive pick:
- LAC
- difficulty:
- 1.67
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 12
“I'm gonna take the points on this one with the bucks Man.”
Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-167 skillHow this was scored
- won:
- DET
- score:
- 9-24
- skill:
- -167
- they picked:
- TB
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 100
- naive pick:
- DET
- difficulty:
- 1.67
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 12
“The Texans after that Jaguars game seem to have woken up... I'm going to take the Texans as a money line.”
Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-167 skillHow this was scored
- won:
- SEA
- score:
- 19-27
- skill:
- -167
- they picked:
- HOU
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 100
- naive pick:
- SEA
- difficulty:
- 1.67
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 12
“This is the easiest money line of the week. There's my money line of the week, and taking Kansas City won it.”
Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skillHow this was scored
- won:
- KC
- score:
- 20-37
- skill:
- 0
- they picked:
- KC
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- naive pick:
- KC
- difficulty:
- 1.83
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 15
“I am taking the quarter black and uh in Philadelphia to beat the quarter white and and Tampa Bay.”
Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+183 skillHow this was scored
- won:
- PHI
- score:
- 31-25
- skill:
- 183
- they picked:
- PHI
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- naive pick:
- TB
- difficulty:
- 1.83
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 15
“Take Dallas Dallas”
Scored 50a naive guess scored 50+0 skillHow this was scored
- won:
- tie
- score:
- 40-40
- skill:
- 0
- they picked:
- DAL
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 50
- baseline:
- 50
- naive pick:
- DAL
- difficulty:
- 1.83
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 15
“I'm taking the Rams. They'll cover.”
Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skillHow this was scored
- won:
- LAR
- score:
- 20-27
- skill:
- 0
- they picked:
- LAR
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- naive pick:
- LAR
- difficulty:
- 1.83
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 15
“I'm going to say Minnesota will cover.”
Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-183 skillHow this was scored
- won:
- PIT
- score:
- 21-24
- skill:
- -183
- they picked:
- MIN
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 100
- naive pick:
- PIT
- difficulty:
- 1.83
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 15
- Arrington sees the Dolphins winning only three or four more games the rest of the way, expects Baltimore to beat Miami, money-lined the Broncos outright at the Chargers and the Lions outright in Baltimore, and agreed the Chiefs will blow out the Giants.4 graded calls · Sep 19, 2025
“I mean, so we're looking at I don't know, man, three. four more. At the most, maybe four more wins.”
Scored 40a naive guess scored 75-66.15 skillHow this was scored
- team:
- MIA
- naive:
- 8.25
- skill:
- -66.15
- what happened:
- 7
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- 5
- accuracy:
- 40
- baseline:
- 75
- predicted:
- 4
- difficulty:
- 1.89
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 16
“I'm gonna money line the Detroit Lions, sticks picks, the lines are gonna win that game out right on the road, outright in Baltimore.”
Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+189 skillHow this was scored
- won:
- DET
- score:
- 38-30
- skill:
- 189
- they picked:
- DET
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- naive pick:
- BAL
- difficulty:
- 1.89
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 16
“what if the Chiefs just come out and obliterate the Giants?... I think they will.”
Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+189 skillHow this was scored
- won:
- KC
- score:
- 22-9
- skill:
- 189
- they picked:
- KC
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- naive pick:
- NYG
- difficulty:
- 1.89
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 16
“You got the Ravens. They gonna win that.”
Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+189 skillHow this was scored
- won:
- BAL
- score:
- 28-6
- skill:
- 189
- they picked:
- BAL
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- naive pick:
- MIA
- difficulty:
- 1.89
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 16
“you have delivered your six picks money line on the Saint... And it's gonna and they're gonna win. Hard to play in New Orleans”
Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skillHow this was scored
- won:
- SF
- score:
- 26-21
- skill:
- 0
- they picked:
- NO
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- naive pick:
- NO
- difficulty:
- 1.94
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 17
“So they should beat the Raiders, they should beat the Falcons.”
Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skillHow this was scored
- won:
- WAS
- score:
- 24-41
- skill:
- 0
- they picked:
- WAS
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- naive pick:
- WAS
- difficulty:
- 1.94
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 17
“Yeah, I mean, and they should beat the Bears... they should be able to beat them.”
Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skillHow this was scored
- won:
- CHI
- score:
- 25-24
- skill:
- 0
- they picked:
- WAS
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- naive pick:
- WAS
- difficulty:
- 1.94
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 17
“It's my money line of the week, second one... money line in the Chiefs?”
Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skillHow this was scored
- won:
- PHI
- score:
- 20-17
- skill:
- 0
- they picked:
- KC
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- naive pick:
- KC
- difficulty:
- 1.94
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 17
“So they should beat the Raiders, they should beat the Falcons.”
Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-194 skillHow this was scored
- won:
- ATL
- score:
- 27-34
- skill:
- -194
- they picked:
- WAS
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 100
- naive pick:
- ATL
- difficulty:
- 1.94
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 17
- Arrington money-lined the Chargers, took the Steelers to cover, the Broncos, the Packers to cover, and money-lined Buffalo.3 graded calls · Sep 5, 2025
“I'm going to money line Buffalo.”
Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skillHow this was scored
- won:
- BUF
- score:
- 40-41
- skill:
- 0
- they picked:
- BUF
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- naive pick:
- BUF
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
“I think the Steelers will cover, So I'm gonna take the I'm gonna take the Steelers on this one.”
Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+200 skillHow this was scored
- won:
- PIT
- score:
- 34-32
- skill:
- 200
- they picked:
- PIT
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- naive pick:
- NYJ
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
“Yeah, I'm taking the Broncos.”
Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skillHow this was scored
- won:
- DEN
- score:
- 12-20
- skill:
- 0
- they picked:
- DEN
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- naive pick:
- DEN
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
“I got them one, Baltimore two, Pittsburgh rounding it out at three. And yes, the Cleveland Brown's kicking the can at four”
Scored 60a naive guess scored 90-60 skillHow this was scored
- skill:
- -60
- method:
- spearman
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 60
- baseline:
- 90
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- teams ranked:
- 4
- weeks left when called:
- 18
“I got the Texans winning it... I put the Jags at too... But I got Tennessee at three and I got Indy at four.”
Scored 80a naive guess scored 70+20 skillHow this was scored
- skill:
- 20
- method:
- spearman
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 80
- baseline:
- 70
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- teams ranked:
- 4
- weeks left when called:
- 18
“I have New England at the bottom, all the way at the bottom... the New York Jets won't be far off from them... the runner up are the Fins. Yeah, the Miami Dolphins. I got the mat number two, and that means that Buffalo is going to win the AFC East”
Scored 40a naive guess scored 40+0 skillHow this was scored
- skill:
- 0
- method:
- spearman
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 40
- baseline:
- 40
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- teams ranked:
- 4
- weeks left when called:
- 18
“I think that the Chargers will be number one and Case will be number two... Outside of the lonely number four Las Vegas Raiders”
Scored 75a naive guess scored 75+0 skillHow this was scored
- skill:
- 0
- method:
- spearman
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 75
- baseline:
- 75
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- teams ranked:
- 3
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- LaVar Arrington picked Minnesota to win the NFC North, Philadelphia the East, Tampa Bay the South and Arizona the West, with Seattle finishing last in the West.4 graded calls · Sep 4, 2025
“I have Tampa Bay winning it. I have Atlanta bringing up second. Carolina will add out New Orleans for third, while New Orleans will fit there's fourth.”
Scored 100a naive guess scored 90+20 skillHow this was scored
- skill:
- 20
- method:
- spearman
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 90
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- teams ranked:
- 4
- weeks left when called:
- 18
“I got Philly winning it. I got Washington second... except I have the Giants third, and I have Dallas bringing up the rear”
Scored 75a naive guess scored 75+0 skillHow this was scored
- skill:
- 0
- method:
- spearman
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 75
- baseline:
- 75
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- teams ranked:
- 3
- weeks left when called:
- 18
“I got Green Bay bringing up second, Detroit falls the third, and the Bears. They will be fourth in the NFC North”
Scored 25a naive guess scored 25+0 skillHow this was scored
- skill:
- 0
- method:
- spearman
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 25
- baseline:
- 25
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- teams ranked:
- 3
- weeks left when called:
- 18
“In the West, I have Arizona winning the West... I believe Seattle will finish last”
Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-200 skillHow this was scored
- skill:
- -200
- method:
- spearman
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 100
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- teams ranked:
- 2
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- Arrington picked division winners in both conferences, had Baltimore beating Buffalo to reach the Super Bowl and Philadelphia beating Green Bay in the NFC, with the Ravens winning it all.9 graded calls · Sep 4, 2025
“I see Green Bay, Washington and the Rams being the wildcard teams”
Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skillHow this was scored
- team:
- GB
- skill:
- 0
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- naive said:
- true
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- made playoffs:
- true
- weeks left when called:
- 18
“the teams that will emerge from there will be Philly and I do believe Green Bay, but I believe that Philadelphia finds a way to win”
Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+200 skillHow this was scored
- won:
- PHI
- score:
- 10-7
- skill:
- 200
- they picked:
- PHI
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- naive pick:
- GB
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
“And I have Baltimore, Jacksonville and Pittsburgh as wildcard teams.”
Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+200 skillHow this was scored
- team:
- JAX
- skill:
- 200
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- naive said:
- false
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- made playoffs:
- true
- weeks left when called:
- 18
“Buffalo Will end up playing Baltimore and Baltimore will win to make it to the super Bowl.”
Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-200 skillHow this was scored
- won:
- BUF
- score:
- 40-41
- skill:
- -200
- they picked:
- BAL
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 100
- naive pick:
- BUF
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
“I see Green Bay, Washington and the Rams being the wildcard teams”
Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skillHow this was scored
- team:
- LAR
- skill:
- 0
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- naive said:
- true
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- made playoffs:
- true
- weeks left when called:
- 18
“and I have Baltimore actually winning the Super Bowl”
Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skillHow this was scored
- skill:
- 0
- they picked:
- BAL
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- champion:
- SEA
- runner up:
- NE
- naive pick:
- PHI
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
“And I have Baltimore, Jacksonville and Pittsburgh as wildcard teams.”
Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skillHow this was scored
- team:
- BAL
- skill:
- 0
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- naive said:
- true
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- made playoffs:
- false
- weeks left when called:
- 18
“And I have Baltimore, Jacksonville and Pittsburgh as wildcard teams.”
Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skillHow this was scored
- team:
- PIT
- skill:
- 0
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- naive said:
- true
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- made playoffs:
- true
- weeks left when called:
- 18
“I see Green Bay, Washington and the Rams being the wildcard teams”
Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skillHow this was scored
- team:
- WAS
- skill:
- 0
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- naive said:
- true
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- made playoffs:
- false
- weeks left when called:
- 18