Tom Jensen· Aug 21, 2026
Jensen projects the 49ers' final 53-man roster ahead of the August 30 cutdown, naming a long list of players he expects to be released outright, another group he expects to be cut and return on the practice squad ("boomerang cuts"), and three borderline players (Jordan James, Jacob Cowing, James Thompson Jr.) he believes San Francisco will keep.
“My thinking is if he was cut he would be picked up, so the 49ers choose to keep him.”
published in writing · Sports Illustrated · read the original →
41 checkable claims — 41 roster spot calls — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.
It names 42 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
17 of 41 have settled so far, averaging 17.6 out of 100, against 76.5 for a naive guess at the same calls.
Where do you stand? Pick this and every open claim on Picks →
Who this take is about
- KhaDarel Hodge
- San Francisco 49ers
- Malik Turner
- Luke Farrell
- Ashtyn Davis
- Doug Kramer
- James Thompson
- Luke Gifford
- Eli Apple
- Jacob Cowing
- Quinton Bell
- Brayden Willis
- Brandon Parker
- Siran Neal
- Khalil Herbert
- Robert Jones
- Jordan James
- Trenton Irwin
- Josiah Deguara
- Zamir White
- Patrick McMorris
- Darrell Luter Jr.
- Adrian Martinez
- Nick Zakelj
- Jalen Graham
- Drake Nugent
- Austen Pleasants
- Bryson Eason
- Sebastian Valdez
- Evan Anderson
- Hayden Rucci
- Jakob Robinson
- Wesley Grimes
- Sincere McCormick
- Alex Barrett
- Titus Leo
- Jalen Stroman
- Nate Hobbs
- Larry Worth
- Victor Dimukeje
- Will Pauling
- Christian Kirk
41 checkable claims in this take
Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.
KhaDarel Hodge to make the roster
“WR KhaDarel Hodge, Will Pauling”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-200 skillHow this was scored
- club:
- SF
- skill:
- -200
- player:
- KhaDarel Hodge
- season:
- 2026
- claimed:
- he lands on the practice squad
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 100
- difficulty:
- 2
- the naive guess:
- he was on somebody's 53 last season, so he makes one again
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks on the53:
- 1
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- first week on the53:
- 1
- weeks on the practice squad:
- 0
- Roster Spot CallsMalik TurnerSan Francisco 49ersAug 21, 2026
Malik Turner to make the roster
“WR: Christian Kirk, Wesley Grimes, Malik Turner, Trenton Irwin”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-200 skillHow this was scored
- club:
- SF
- skill:
- -200
- player:
- 60d935aa-09ad-434b-a547-8130dab71031
- season:
- 2026
- claimed:
- he does not make the 53
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 100
- difficulty:
- 2
- the naive guess:
- he was on somebody's 53 last season, so he makes one again
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks on the53:
- 1
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- first week on the53:
- 1
- weeks on the practice squad:
- 0
- Roster Spot CallsLuke FarrellSan Francisco 49ersAug 21, 2026
Luke Farrell to make the roster
“TE Luke Farrell, Josiah Deguera”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-200 skillHow this was scored
- club:
- SF
- skill:
- -200
- player:
- 6fb01130-d5fe-47fb-9ae0-5bfd13b50234
- season:
- 2026
- claimed:
- he lands on the practice squad
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 100
- difficulty:
- 2
- the naive guess:
- he was on somebody's 53 last season, so he makes one again
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks on the53:
- 1
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- first week on the53:
- 1
- weeks on the practice squad:
- 0
- Roster Spot CallsAshtyn DavisSan Francisco 49ersAug 21, 2026
Ashtyn Davis to make the roster
“S Ashtyn Davis”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-200 skillHow this was scored
- club:
- SF
- skill:
- -200
- player:
- ca304f6a-101d-4bc3-9444-0f4d1deab7a6
- season:
- 2026
- claimed:
- he lands on the practice squad
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 100
- difficulty:
- 2
- the naive guess:
- he was on somebody's 53 last season, so he makes one again
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks on the53:
- 1
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- first week on the53:
- 1
- weeks on the practice squad:
- 0
- Roster Spot CallsDoug KramerSan Francisco 49ersAug 21, 2026
Doug Kramer to make the roster
“OL: Brandon Parker, Doug Kramer Jr., Nick Zakelj”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skillHow this was scored
- club:
- SF
- skill:
- 0
- player:
- ad7c7d65-5eff-42a9-913e-dc08267e2967
- season:
- 2026
- claimed:
- he does not make the 53
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- difficulty:
- 2
- the naive guess:
- he was on somebody's 53 last season, so he makes one again
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks on the53:
- 1
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- first week on the53:
- 1
- weeks on the practice squad:
- 0
James Thompson to make the roster
“DT James Thompson Jr. – Has shown enough to keep him, cutting him would be a risk.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+200 skillHow this was scored
- club:
- SF
- skill:
- 200
- player:
- ae678a3d-e4c2-415b-920a-595064d8c5d3
- season:
- 2026
- claimed:
- he makes the 53
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- difficulty:
- 2
- the naive guess:
- he was on somebody's 53 last season, so he makes one again
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks on the53:
- 1
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- first week on the53:
- 1
- weeks on the practice squad:
- 0
- Roster Spot CallsLuke GiffordSan Francisco 49ersAug 21, 2026
Luke Gifford to make the roster
“LB Luke Gifford, Jalen Graham”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-200 skillHow this was scored
- club:
- SF
- skill:
- -200
- player:
- 5dbd2f62-ca55-4671-9e89-28827cf2bd0c
- season:
- 2026
- claimed:
- he does not make the 53
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 100
- difficulty:
- 2
- the naive guess:
- he was on somebody's 53 last season, so he makes one again
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks on the53:
- 1
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- first week on the53:
- 1
- weeks on the practice squad:
- 0
- Roster Spot CallsEli AppleSan Francisco 49ersAug 21, 2026
Eli Apple to make the roster
“DB: Eli Apple, Nate Hobbs”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-200 skillHow this was scored
- club:
- SF
- skill:
- -200
- player:
- b3345fe4-a70b-41ea-ac39-5fd140c68b64
- season:
- 2026
- claimed:
- he does not make the 53
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 100
- difficulty:
- 2
- the naive guess:
- he was on somebody's 53 last season, so he makes one again
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks on the53:
- 1
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- first week on the53:
- 1
- weeks on the practice squad:
- 0
- Roster Spot CallsJacob CowingSan Francisco 49ersAug 21, 2026
Jacob Cowing to make the roster
“WR Jacob Cowing – He would have been a boomerang cut, but then the punt return touchdown against the Chargers. Supply and demand for punt returners is so dire Cowing would be at risk of being picked up.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+200 skillHow this was scored
- club:
- SF
- skill:
- 200
- player:
- f9912e01-25b2-43c7-b6b8-7625d4fc9a5b
- season:
- 2026
- claimed:
- he makes the 53
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- difficulty:
- 2
- the naive guess:
- he was on somebody's 53 last season, so he makes one again
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks on the53:
- 1
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- first week on the53:
- 1
- weeks on the practice squad:
- 0
- Roster Spot CallsQuinton BellSan Francisco 49ersAug 21, 2026
Quinton Bell to make the roster
“DL Quinton Bell, Bryson Eason, Sebastian Valdez”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-200 skillHow this was scored
- club:
- SF
- skill:
- -200
- player:
- 95eec428-377b-4167-a280-82ee1136a38a
- season:
- 2026
- claimed:
- he lands on the practice squad
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 100
- difficulty:
- 2
- the naive guess:
- he was on somebody's 53 last season, so he makes one again
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks on the53:
- 1
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- first week on the53:
- 1
- weeks on the practice squad:
- 0
Brayden Willis to make the roster
“TE: Brayden Willis, Hayden Rucci”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-200 skillHow this was scored
- club:
- SF
- skill:
- -200
- player:
- 03455e12-ea39-4cce-b589-94016582bc58
- season:
- 2026
- claimed:
- he does not make the 53
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 100
- difficulty:
- 2
- the naive guess:
- he was on somebody's 53 last season, so he makes one again
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks on the53:
- 1
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- first week on the53:
- 1
- weeks on the practice squad:
- 0
Brandon Parker to make the roster
“OL: Brandon Parker, Doug Kramer Jr., Nick Zakelj”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-200 skillHow this was scored
- club:
- SF
- skill:
- -200
- player:
- 445f3bc9-8315-4eaa-a16e-ce6793f802a1
- season:
- 2026
- claimed:
- he does not make the 53
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 100
- difficulty:
- 2
- the naive guess:
- he was on somebody's 53 last season, so he makes one again
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks on the53:
- 1
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- first week on the53:
- 1
- weeks on the practice squad:
- 0
- Roster Spot CallsSiran NealSan Francisco 49ersAug 21, 2026
Siran Neal to make the roster
“S: Patrick McMorris, Jalen Stroman, Siran Neal”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-200 skillHow this was scored
- club:
- SF
- skill:
- -200
- player:
- 40313f45-40f3-4813-9bea-fc9afb0d78ed
- season:
- 2026
- claimed:
- he does not make the 53
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 100
- difficulty:
- 2
- the naive guess:
- he was on somebody's 53 last season, so he makes one again
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks on the53:
- 1
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- first week on the53:
- 1
- weeks on the practice squad:
- 0
Khalil Herbert to make the roster
“On the cutting block Offense RB: Khalil Herbert, Zamir White”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-200 skillHow this was scored
- club:
- SF
- skill:
- -200
- player:
- a16b093b-5d78-4b77-8c2b-bcfa5614d990
- season:
- 2026
- claimed:
- he does not make the 53
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 100
- difficulty:
- 2
- the naive guess:
- he was on somebody's 53 last season, so he makes one again
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks on the53:
- 1
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- first week on the53:
- 1
- weeks on the practice squad:
- 0
- Roster Spot CallsRobert JonesSan Francisco 49ersAug 21, 2026
Robert Jones to make the roster
“OL Robert Jones, Austen Pleasants, Drake Nugent”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-200 skillHow this was scored
- club:
- SF
- skill:
- -200
- player:
- a20a0698-27a0-4b0b-a7ea-0247f6c2b326
- season:
- 2026
- claimed:
- he lands on the practice squad
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 100
- difficulty:
- 2
- the naive guess:
- he was on somebody's 53 last season, so he makes one again
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks on the53:
- 1
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- first week on the53:
- 1
- weeks on the practice squad:
- 0
- Roster Spot CallsJordan JamesSan Francisco 49ersAug 21, 2026
Jordan James to make the roster
“RB Jordan James – My thinking is if he was cut he would be picked up, so the 49ers choose to keep him.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skillHow this was scored
- club:
- SF
- skill:
- 0
- player:
- 5ebaee65-9d51-4453-a93b-8bc295f82ba9
- season:
- 2026
- claimed:
- he makes the 53
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- difficulty:
- 2
- the naive guess:
- he was on somebody's 53 last season, so he makes one again
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks on the53:
- 1
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- first week on the53:
- 1
- weeks on the practice squad:
- 0
Trenton Irwin to make the roster
“WR: Christian Kirk, Wesley Grimes, Malik Turner, Trenton Irwin”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skillHow this was scored
- club:
- SF
- skill:
- 0
- player:
- 1d29f772-746a-46c3-b98f-1b7de1148878
- season:
- 2026
- claimed:
- he does not make the 53
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- difficulty:
- 2
- the naive guess:
- he was on somebody's 53 last season, so he makes one again
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks on the53:
- 1
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- first week on the53:
- 1
- weeks on the practice squad:
- 0
Josiah Deguara to make the roster
“TE Luke Farrell, Josiah Deguera”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
- Roster Spot CallsZamir WhiteSan Francisco 49ersAug 21, 2026
Zamir White to make the roster
“RB: Khalil Herbert, Zamir White”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
Patrick McMorris to make the roster
“S: Patrick McMorris, Jalen Stroman, Siran Neal”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
Darrell Luter Jr. to make the roster
“DB Darrell Luter Jr., Jakob Robinson”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
Adrian Martinez to make the roster
“Boomerang Cuts to Practice Squad QB Adrian Martinez”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
- Roster Spot CallsNick ZakeljSan Francisco 49ersAug 21, 2026
Nick Zakelj to make the roster
“OL: Brandon Parker, Doug Kramer Jr., Nick Zakelj”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
- Roster Spot CallsJalen GrahamSan Francisco 49ersAug 21, 2026
Jalen Graham to make the roster
“LB Luke Gifford, Jalen Graham”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
- Roster Spot CallsDrake NugentSan Francisco 49ersAug 21, 2026
Drake Nugent to make the roster
“OL Robert Jones, Austen Pleasants, Drake Nugent”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
Austen Pleasants to make the roster
“OL Robert Jones, Austen Pleasants, Drake Nugent”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
- Roster Spot CallsBryson EasonSan Francisco 49ersAug 21, 2026
Bryson Eason to make the roster
“DL Quinton Bell, Bryson Eason, Sebastian Valdez”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
Sebastian Valdez to make the roster
“DL Quinton Bell, Bryson Eason, Sebastian Valdez”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
Evan Anderson to make the roster
“DL: Alex Barrett, Evan Anderson, Victor Dimukeje, Titus Leo”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
- Roster Spot CallsHayden RucciSan Francisco 49ersAug 21, 2026
Hayden Rucci to make the roster
“TE: Brayden Willis, Hayden Rucci”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
Jakob Robinson to make the roster
“DB Darrell Luter Jr., Jakob Robinson”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
Wesley Grimes to make the roster
“WR: Christian Kirk, Wesley Grimes, Malik Turner, Trenton Irwin”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
Sincere McCormick to make the roster
“RB Sincere McCormick”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
- Roster Spot CallsAlex BarrettSan Francisco 49ersAug 21, 2026
Alex Barrett to make the roster
“DL: Alex Barrett, Evan Anderson, Victor Dimukeje, Titus Leo”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
- Roster Spot CallsTitus LeoSan Francisco 49ersAug 21, 2026
Titus Leo to make the roster
“DL: Alex Barrett, Evan Anderson, Victor Dimukeje, Titus Leo”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
Jalen Stroman to make the roster
“S: Patrick McMorris, Jalen Stroman, Siran Neal”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
- Roster Spot CallsNate HobbsSan Francisco 49ersAug 21, 2026
Nate Hobbs to make the roster
“DB: Eli Apple, Nate Hobbs”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
- Roster Spot CallsLarry WorthSan Francisco 49ersAug 21, 2026
Larry Worth to make the roster
“LB Larry Worth III”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
Victor Dimukeje to make the roster
“DL: Alex Barrett, Evan Anderson, Victor Dimukeje, Titus Leo”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
- Roster Spot CallsWill PaulingSan Francisco 49ersAug 21, 2026
Will Pauling to make the roster
“WR KhaDarel Hodge, Will Pauling”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
Christian Kirk to make the roster
“WR: Christian Kirk, Wesley Grimes, Malik Turner, Trenton Irwin”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
What others said about the same people
- Mike TannenbaumTrade and Signing Calls · Stefon DiggsMiss · 0Tannenbaum argues the Chiefs should lean on the run game early while Mahomes recovers, says the Bills haven't done enough at receiver and would repeat their playoff shortcoming, expects AJ Brown to have a massive impact in New England, thinks George Pickens will earn a big raise, and offers free-agent fits: Deebo Samuel to Buffalo, Joey Bosa to Tampa Bay, Taylor Decker to Houston, and Stefon Diggs to San Francisco.
- Evan SilvaFantasy Defense Calls · San Francisco 49ersMiss · 0In his 2020 fantasy defense/special teams rankings, Silva puts the Steelers first, the 49ers second and the Ravens third, citing pass rush, favorable early schedules and game scripts.
- John MiddlekauffGame Outcome Picks · San Francisco 49ersHit · 100Previewing the NFL's Australia game in Week 1, Middlekauff picks the underdog 49ers to beat the Rams, arguing San Francisco's long acclimation trip and Kyle Shanahan's edge over Sean McVay make them a live dog.
- Tyler SullivanGame Outcome Picks · San Francisco 49ersHit · 100An unsigned CBS Sports piece flags five Week 1 underdogs as upset candidates: the 49ers over the Rams in Melbourne, the Texans over the Bills, the Panthers over the Bears, the Jets over the Titans, and the Broncos over the Chiefs on Monday night.
- Richard ShermanScore Predictions · San Francisco 49ersClose · 60Sherman picked Seattle to beat New England 28-17 in the opener, ran through score picks for the rest of the week one slate (49ers, Cowboys, Bills, Bears, Vikings, Colts, Broncos), said the Seahawks would also beat the Cardinals, Commanders and Chargers, backed Dallas to win its division, and predicted Christian Gonzalez's deal would come in barely above Devon Witherspoon's.
- Eva GeitheimGame Outcome Picks · San Francisco 49ersHit · 100Geitheim's Week 1 straight-up picks for all 16 games.
More roster spot calls
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
- John ShipleyRoster Spot Calls · Jack KiserMiss · 0Shipley projects a full 16-player (plus one international/exemption spot) Jaguars practice squad for 2026, naming specific players at each position he expects to land there.
- Cody RourkeRoster Spot Calls · Mitchell FraboniMiss · 0Rourke names the Ravens as the bounce-back team most likely to be dangerous in the AFC again, and says Houston's defense alone should carry the Texans into the postseason. He also expects long snapper Mitchell Fraboni to be one of Denver's practice-squad elevations for the Chiefs game, and slots Pat Bryant as Denver's third receiver behind Courtland Sutton and Jaylen Waddle.
- Sayre BedingerRoster Spot Calls · Adam PrenticeMiss · 0Benninger expects Houston's elite defense to make them either a division winner or a wild card team, thinks Marvin Mims was trending toward being Denver's fourth receiver rather than just the return man, and figures Adam Prentice will be the Broncos' other practice-squad call-up.
- Bob MorrisRoster Spot Calls · Adam PrenticeHit · 100Morris predicts Jarrett Stidham holds the backup QB job behind Bo Nix, Adam Prentice makes the 53-man roster as the fullback/fourth back, and Lucas Krull gets cut.
- Erick TrickelRoster Spot Calls · Adam PrenticeHit · 100After the Broncos' preseason opener, Trickel argued fullback Adam Prentice has shown enough value to earn a spot on the 53-man roster ahead of the team's fourth running back options (Jaleel McLaughlin, Tyler Badie, Cody Schrader).
- Nick ShookRoster Spot Calls · Aaron DonaldHit · 100Shook unveiled his first NFL power rankings of the year, putting the Rams first, the Broncos second and the defending champion Seahawks only third, with the Dolphins last.