John Middlekauff Predictions: Record, Accuracy, Every Take | MissedTakes

John Middlekauff

John Middlekauff is a former NFL scout and former contributor to The Athletic Bay Area who now appears regularly on The Colin Cowherd Podcast and The Herd with Colin Cowherd. His predictions span the NFL calendar — draft positioning, win totals, playoff berths, Super Bowl picks — with particular attention to teams like the 49ers, Chiefs, and Bears. He digs into roster construction and coaching decisions, whether it's evaluating quarterback prospects like Jaxson Dart and Ty Simpson or debating whether the Steelers are headed for disaster. The scouting background shows in how he frames things: fit, scheme, and where a player lands on the depth chart.

Writes at The Colin Cowherd Podcast (podcast)

Every take from John Middlekauff, including the ones still waiting →

Is John Middlekauff accurate? Across 102 graded calls in 31 articles, John Middlekauff scores 61.29% accuracy and a MissedTakes Score of 8.88, which means their calls were better than a naive guess on the same claims. That is an established record: thirty or more graded articles.

61.29%

Accuracy

How often they were right.

8.88

MissedTakes Score

Versus a naive guess. 0 means no better.

102

Graded calls

across 31 articles. 171 more not yet settled.

95.84% of their claims were specific enough to check. Most of what they said committed to something.

Every number here is computed from the published methodology, and every call below shows its own arithmetic.

Awards

Computed, never chosen: the best article-weighted record among eligible pundits over a completed period. Eligibility follows the leaderboard’s bar — provisional records cannot win.

Pundit of the Week · MissedTakes ScoreWeek 37, 2026MissedTakes Score 66.67 · 3 graded takes across 3 articles
Pundit of the Week · AccuracyWeek 37, 2026Accuracy 100 · 3 graded takes across 3 articles

What they call, and how it goes

The record split by kind of claim — five graded calls minimum before a kind shows here. A pundit can be sharp on drafts and ordinary on game picks, and averaging that away is how a number stops meaning anything.

Mock Draft Picks19 graded76.12 accuracy
Season Win Totals16 graded52.96 accuracy
Game Outcome Picks10 graded73.81 accuracy

Form

Rolling accuracy over their last fifteen graded calls, in the order the claims were made. The dashed line is their career average — the question this answers is whether the number above is who they are or who they were.

Graded calls · 102

15 of 31 graded articles on this page, newest first — page 1 of 3.

Previewing the NFL's Australia game in Week 1, Middlekauff picks the underdog 49ers to beat the Rams, arguing San Francisco's long acclimation trip and Kyle Shanahan's edge over Sean McVay make them a live dog.Sep 10, 2026
- San Francisco 49ers to beat Rams
  “But I think the 49ers won the game. I do. ... So 49ers to win the game. Yes.”
  Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+200 skill
  How this was scored
  won:
  SF
  score:
  27-7
  skill:
  200
  they picked:
  SF
  season:
  2026
  accuracy:
  100
  baseline:
  0
  the naive pick:
  LAR
  difficulty:
  2

On his Three and Out podcast, Middlekauff gave ten bold predictions for the first round of the 2026 NFL Draft: Fernando Mendoza first overall as the only first-round quarterback, Ty Simpson falling out of round one, Jeremiah Love sliding out of the top five, Sonny Styles to the Titans at four, Omar Cooper as the second receiver drafted, the Lions trading up for a tackle, and Aaron Rodgers' return being announced around draft week.5 graded calls · Apr 23, 2026

Jeremiyah Love to be picked “does not go in the top five” (picks 1–5)
“so my bold prediction Is Jeremiah love does not go in the top five”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 50
How this was scored
draft:
2026
naive:
a shuffled mock scores 50
player:
Jeremiyah Love
season:
2026
zero at:
32
accuracy:
0
baseline:
50
actual pick:
3
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
pick accuracy:
0
predicted pick:
does not go in the top five (NOT picks 1–5)
weeks left when called:
0
mock ordering score:
only one pick — no order to score
Think this grade is wrong?
Sonny Styles to be picked at number 4
“I do think The titans can Go Sony styles because everyone's telling me they're gonna Ta jeremiah... so you Go mendoza the two pass Rushers. Styles”
Hit · 88Scored 87.81 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 100 against a shuffle’s 50+50 skill
How this was scored
draft:
2026
naive:
a shuffled mock scores 50
skill:
50
player:
Sonny Styles
season:
2026
zero at:
32
accuracy:
87.81
baseline:
50
actual pick:
7
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
pick accuracy:
87.81
predicted pick:
4
weeks left when called:
0
mock ordering score:
Omar Cooper to be 2nd wide receiver off the board
“So Omar Cooper, second wide receiver off the board.”
Miss · 35Scored 35.36a naive guess scored 14.51+20.84 skill
How this was scored
draft:
2026
naive:
naming one of the 36 at random averages 14.51
skill:
20.84
player:
Omar Cooper
season:
2026
zero at:
credit halves every two places
accuracy:
35.36
baseline:
14.51
position:
wide receiver
class size:
36
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
actual order:
5
predicted order:
2
weeks left when called:
0
Fernando Mendoza to be picked at number 1
“I think we see one quarterback get drafted and That's Fernando mendez at number one... So fernando goes one”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 50
How this was scored
draft:
2026
naive:
a shuffled mock scores 50
player:
Fernando Mendoza
season:
2026
zero at:
32
accuracy:
100
baseline:
50
actual pick:
1
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
pick accuracy:
100
predicted pick:
1
weeks left when called:
0
mock ordering score:
only one pick — no order to score
Think this grade is wrong?
Ty Simpson to be picked “does not go in the first round” (picks 1–32)
“I do not think That Ty simpson goes in the first round... SO i do not think Ty simpson's off the board On thursday night”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 50
How this was scored
draft:
2026
naive:
a shuffled mock scores 50
player:
Ty Simpson
season:
2026
zero at:
32
accuracy:
0
baseline:
50
actual pick:
13
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
pick accuracy:
0
predicted pick:
does not go in the first round (NOT picks 1–32)
weeks left when called:
0
mock ordering score:
only one pick — no order to score
Think this grade is wrong?

After the NFL Combine, Middlekauff predicted Fernando Mendoza goes No. 1 overall, that Notre Dame running back Jeremiah Love won't fall out of the top 10 (as high as No. 4 to the Giants, no further than the Saints at No. 8), plus top-10/top-20 landing spots for Caleb Downs, Carnell Tate and Oregon's tight end. He also forecast quarterback movement: Tua and Kyler Murray being cut, Kyler as a backup, someone trading for Tyson Bagent, and the Saints becoming a sleeper playoff team if they land Love.5 graded calls · Mar 2, 2026

Caleb Downs to be picked “lock top ten pick” (picks 1–10)
“Caleb Downs I didn't even think did that much at the combine. Don't blame him, He's a lock top ten pick”
Hit · 96Scored 95.76a naive guess scored 50
How this was scored
draft:
2026
naive:
a shuffled mock scores 50
player:
Caleb Downs
season:
2026
zero at:
32
accuracy:
95.76
baseline:
50
actual pick:
11
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
pick accuracy:
95.76
predicted pick:
lock top ten pick (picks 1–10)
weeks left when called:
0
mock ordering score:
only one pick — no order to score
Think this grade is wrong?
Carnell Tate to be picked “top twenty” (picks 1–20)
“And Carnel Tate same thing. He's gonna go in the top twenty.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 50
How this was scored
draft:
2026
naive:
a shuffled mock scores 50
player:
Carnell Tate
season:
2026
zero at:
32
accuracy:
100
baseline:
50
actual pick:
4
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
pick accuracy:
100
predicted pick:
top twenty (picks 1–20)
weeks left when called:
0
mock ordering score:
only one pick — no order to score
Think this grade is wrong?
Jeremiyah Love to be picked “not sniffing falling out of the top ten; goes as high as four with the Giants, farthest fall would be the Saints at eight” (picks 1–10)
“So I think the I think Jeremiah lovkick goes high as four with the Titans, I mean the Giants... I think the farthest key word of quote unquote fall would be the Saints at eight... he's not sniffing falling out of the of the top ten.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 50
How this was scored
draft:
2026
naive:
a shuffled mock scores 50
player:
Jeremiyah Love
season:
2026
zero at:
32
accuracy:
100
baseline:
50
actual pick:
3
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
pick accuracy:
100
predicted pick:
not sniffing falling out of the top ten; goes as high as four with the Giants, farthest fall would be the Saints at eight (picks 1–10)
weeks left when called:
Kenyon Sadiq to be picked “top ten” (picks 1–10)
“Sadik. I mean that's I don't know if he's gonna go top five, but he's going in the top ten.”
Close · 77Scored 77.11a naive guess scored 50
How this was scored
draft:
2026
naive:
a shuffled mock scores 50
player:
Kenyon Sadiq
season:
2026
zero at:
32
accuracy:
77.11
baseline:
50
actual pick:
16
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
pick accuracy:
77.11
predicted pick:
top ten (picks 1–10)
weeks left when called:
0
mock ordering score:
only one pick — no order to score
Think this grade is wrong?
Fernando Mendoza to be picked at number 1
“The only thing we know for certain is for Mendoza is going number one.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 50
How this was scored
draft:
2026
naive:
a shuffled mock scores 50
player:
Fernando Mendoza
season:
2026
zero at:
32
accuracy:
100
baseline:
50
actual pick:
1
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
pick accuracy:
100
predicted pick:
1
weeks left when called:
0
mock ordering score:
only one pick — no order to score
Think this grade is wrong?

Middlekauff expects either Josh Allen or Lamar Jackson to win this year's MVP, calling them the two best players in the league. He is pessimistic on the Bears, forecasting six or seven wins and saying he'd bet Caleb Williams doesn't work out as a franchise quarterback. He also sees Oklahoma's John Mattier as a first-round pick who'll be in the Heisman mix.5 graded calls · Sep 10, 2025

Caleb Williams to disappoint at the next level
“if I was a betting man right now, I would say this is not gonna work. I don't think Caleb is good... you would put money on Caleb Williams not working out... worst case scenario, Kayleb Williams is a bust, which is a tough word to say when you draft a guy number one overall”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-194 skill
How this was scored
pick:
1
draft:
2024
naive:
the pick returned what picks at that cost typically return
skill:
-194
player:
Caleb Williams
season:
2025
correct:
no
accuracy:
0
baseline:
100
position:
QB
best finish:
QB5 in 2025
difficulty:
1.94
had to reach:
QB9
weeks in the season:
18
seasons played:
2
weeks left when called:
17
measured against:
the 26 QBs taken within 16 picks of 1, across every draft we hold
Think this grade is wrong?
Josh Allen to win MVP
“Josh all and Lamar Jackson are gonna continue to rack up MVPs. I would be stunned if one of those two guys doesn't win the MVP this year.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skill
How this was scored
award:
mvp
naive:
the naive pick was Josh Allen, who won it the year before
skill:
0
player:
Josh Allen
season:
2025
winner:
Matthew Stafford
correct:
no
accuracy:
0
baseline:
0
difficulty:
1.94
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
17
Think this grade is wrong?
Lamar Jackson to win MVP
“Josh all and Lamar Jackson are gonna continue to rack up MVPs. I would be stunned if one of those two guys doesn't win the MVP this year.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skill
How this was scored
award:
mvp
naive:
the naive pick was Josh Allen, who won it the year before
skill:
0
player:
Lamar Jackson
season:
2025
winner:
Matthew Stafford
correct:
no
accuracy:
0
baseline:
0
difficulty:
1.94
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
17
Think this grade is wrong?
John Mateer to be picked “first round pick” (picks 1–32)
“And John Mattier is going to be a first round pick.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 50
How this was scored
draft:
2026
naive:
a shuffled mock scores 50
player:
John Mateer
season:
2025
zero at:
undrafted
outcome:
went undrafted in 2026; has not appeared on an NFL roster
accuracy:
0
baseline:
50
actual pick:
undrafted
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
pick accuracy:
0
predicted pick:
first round pick (picks 1–32)
weeks left when called:
0
mock ordering score:
only one pick — no order to score
John Mateer to be picked “top fifteen to twenty pick” (picks 1–15)
“He will be in the Heisman mix, and he will be discussed as a top fifteen to twenty pick.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 50
How this was scored
draft:
2026
naive:
a shuffled mock scores 50
player:
John Mateer
season:
2025
zero at:
undrafted
outcome:
went undrafted in 2026; has not appeared on an NFL roster
accuracy:
0
baseline:
50
actual pick:
undrafted
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
pick accuracy:
0
predicted pick:
top fifteen to twenty pick (picks 1–15)
weeks left when called:
0
mock ordering score:

Middlekauff says Denver's floor is ten wins, predicts Miami implodes to four or five wins and a top-three-or-four draft slot with Tyreek Hill traded, thinks the 49ers beat expectations with nine or ten wins, sees the Patriots at eight or nine wins, calls the Chargers over 9.5 a lock, expects Jared Goff to make five or six Pro Bowls, and says the Packers are flying under the radar.4 graded calls · Aug 25, 2025

San Francisco 49ers to finish with 9–10 wins
“so I think the Niners probably more likely to win nine or ten games”
Close · 60Scored 60a naive guess scored 5+110 skill
How this was scored
team:
SF
naive:
7.25
skill:
110
what happened:
12
season:
2025
zero at:
5
accuracy:
60
baseline:
5
predicted:
9–10 wins (9–10 wins)
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
18
Think this grade is wrong?
Denver Broncos to finish with 10 wins
“if you have a dominant defense with an offensive coach who's proven, like, how are your floor is so high? I mean your floor is immediately like ten wins.”
Miss · 20Scored 20a naive guess scored 5+30 skill
How this was scored
team:
DEN
naive:
9.25
skill:
30
what happened:
14
season:
2025
zero at:
5
accuracy:
20
baseline:
5
predicted:
10
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
18
Think this grade is wrong?
Jared Goff to make Pro Bowl
“I would say he's going to make five or six Pro Bowls in his time in the NFC”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-200 skill
How this was scored
made:
no
naive:
he did not make it the year before, so the naive pick said no
skill:
-200
player:
Jared Goff
season:
2025
accuracy:
0
baseline:
100
selection:
pro_bowl
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
18
Think this grade is wrong?
New England Patriots to finish with 8–9 wins
“Why couldn't they go nine to eight this year?... I could see the Patriots winning eight or nine games.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skill
How this was scored
team:
NE
naive:
6.25
skill:
0
what happened:
14
season:
2025
zero at:
5
accuracy:
0
baseline:
0
predicted:
8–9 wins (8–9 wins)
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
18
Think this grade is wrong?

Middlecoff says Anthony Richardson's Colts career is finished and expects him to be traded within ten days for any value, even a fifth-round pick. He backs the Texans to win the AFC South, calls the Ravens, Bills and Chiefs playoff locks with Baltimore and Buffalo winning their divisions, and expects Buffalo to win 14-plus games.8 graded calls · Aug 20, 2025

Kansas City Chiefs to make the playoffs
“The Ravens, the Bills, and the Chiefs will be in a playoff game whether they are win the division.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skill
How this was scored
team:
KC
skill:
0
season:
2025
accuracy:
0
baseline:
0
the naive guess said:
yes
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
made the playoffs:
no
weeks left when called:
18
Think this grade is wrong?
Buffalo Bills to make the playoffs
“The Ravens, the Bills, and the Chiefs will be in a playoff game whether they are win the division.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skill
How this was scored
team:
BUF
skill:
0
season:
2025
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
the naive guess said:
yes
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
made the playoffs:
yes
weeks left when called:
18
Think this grade is wrong?
Baltimore Ravens to win the division
“Maybe the Chiefs finally don't, but the Ravens and Bills, I mean the Bills of one of what five straight years, feels like the Ravens would be shocking if they didn't”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skill
How this was scored
skill:
0
method:
division winners read off the bracket: the bye teams and the wild-card hosts
they picked:
BAL
season:
2025
accuracy:
0
baseline:
0
the naive pick:
BAL
difficulty:
2
the naive guess:
last season's winner of the same division
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
18
won the division:
no
Think this grade is wrong?
Buffalo Bills to win the division
“Maybe the Chiefs finally don't, but the Ravens and Bills, I mean the Bills of one of what five straight years”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skill
How this was scored
skill:
0
method:
division winners read off the bracket: the bye teams and the wild-card hosts
they picked:
BUF
season:
2025
accuracy:
0
baseline:
0
the naive pick:
BUF
difficulty:
2
the naive guess:
last season's winner of the same division
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
18
won the division:
no
Think this grade is wrong?
Anthony Richardson to move to Indianapolis Colts
“I would imagine the next ten days if they get any bit of value a fifth round pick he's traded, it's over”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-200 skill
How this was scored
skill:
-200
player:
Anthony Richardson
season:
2025
claimed:
he leaves
was with:
IND
accuracy:
0
baseline:
100
difficulty:
2
the naive guess:
he stays where he is
weeks in the season:
18
ended up with:
IND
weeks left when called:
18
Think this grade is wrong?
Buffalo Bills to finish with 14 wins
“I think there's a fifty to fifty chance there the number one see, I expect them to win fourteen plus games.”
Close · 60Scored 60a naive guess scored 75-30 skill
How this was scored
team:
BUF
naive:
10.75
skill:
-30
what happened:
12
season:
2025
zero at:
5
accuracy:
60
baseline:
75
predicted:
14
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
18
Think this grade is wrong?
Houston Texans to win the division
“I am going to hammer the Texans. I'm going to hammer them to win this division.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skill
How this was scored
skill:
0
method:
division winners read off the bracket: the bye teams and the wild-card hosts
they picked:
HOU
season:
2025
accuracy:
0
baseline:
0
the naive pick:
HOU
difficulty:
2
the naive guess:
last season's winner of the same division
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
18
won the division:
no
Think this grade is wrong?
Baltimore Ravens to make the playoffs
“The Ravens, the Bills, and the Chiefs will be in a playoff game whether they are win the division.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skill
How this was scored
team:
BAL
skill:
0
season:
2025
accuracy:
0
baseline:
0
the naive guess said:
yes
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
made the playoffs:
no
weeks left when called:
18
Think this grade is wrong?