John Middlekauff
Fewer than 10 graded articles. Treat this as provisional.
93.33% of their claims were specific enough to check. Most of what they said committed to something.
Every number here is computed from the published methodology, and every call below shows its own arithmetic.
What they call, and how it goes
The record split by kind of claim — five graded calls minimum before a kind shows here. A pundit can be sharp on drafts and ordinary on game picks, and averaging that away is how a number stops meaning anything.
- Season Win Totals7 graded57.5 accuracy
- Playoff Picks5 graded41.67 accuracy
Form
Rolling accuracy over their last fifteen graded calls, in the order the claims were made. The dashed line is their career average — the question this answers is whether the number above is who they are or who they were.
Graded calls · 30
“I think the Titan at four could take Jeremiah Love. I wouldn't even overthink it. Get this star running back.”
Scored 95.76a naive guess scored 50How this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- player:
- Jeremiyah Love
- season:
- 2026
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 95.76
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 3
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 95.76
- predicted pick:
- 4
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- only one pick — no order to score
“Well, I think he's easily a top ten quarterback. And one thing that he's proven that no one would have believed a couple of years ago.”
Scored 58.33a naive guess scored 100-41.67 skillHow this was scored
- skill:
- -41.67
- player:
- Sam Darnold
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- 12
- accuracy:
- 58.33
- baseline:
- 100
- position:
- QB
- ranked by:
- passing yards
- difficulty:
- 1
- naive basis:
- where he finished last season
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- naive finish:
- 5
- actual finish:
- 5
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- predicted finish:
- 10
“The Ravens, the Bills, and the Chiefs will be in a playoff game whether they are win the division.”
Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skillHow this was scored
- team:
- KC
- skill:
- 0
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- naive said:
- true
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- made playoffs:
- false
- weeks left when called:
- 18
“The Ravens, the Bills, and the Chiefs will be in a playoff game whether they are win the division.”
Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skillHow this was scored
- team:
- BAL
- skill:
- 0
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- naive said:
- true
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- made playoffs:
- false
- weeks left when called:
- 18
“I think there's a fifty to fifty chance there the number one see, I expect them to win fourteen plus games.”
Scored 60a naive guess scored 75-30 skillHow this was scored
- team:
- BUF
- naive:
- 10.75
- skill:
- -30
- what happened:
- 12
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- 5
- accuracy:
- 60
- baseline:
- 75
- predicted:
- 14
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
“The Ravens, the Bills, and the Chiefs will be in a playoff game whether they are win the division.”
Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skillHow this was scored
- team:
- BUF
- skill:
- 0
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- naive said:
- true
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- made playoffs:
- true
- weeks left when called:
- 18
“So Hampton was gonna start over him regardless... So I think Hardball would ride Hampton like a like secretariat”
Scored 91.67a naive guess scored 100-16.67 skillHow this was scored
- club:
- LAC
- skill:
- -16.67
- player:
- Omarion Hampton
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 91.67
- baseline:
- 100
- position:
- RB
- naive slot:
- 2
- actual slot:
- 2
- difficulty:
- 2
- measured by:
- rushing yards
- naive basis:
- no prior season — a rookie is assumed to start behind the incumbent
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- predicted slot:
- 1
- weeks left when called:
- 18
“does Matt Stafford start Week one? I would lean yes, even though I have no more information than anyone else”
Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skillHow this was scored
- club:
- LAR
- skill:
- 0
- player:
- Matthew Stafford
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- position:
- QB
- naive slot:
- 1
- actual slot:
- 1
- difficulty:
- 2
- measured by:
- passing yards
- naive basis:
- where he sat last season
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- predicted slot:
- 1
- weeks left when called:
- 18
“I will stick with what I said. I think Daniel Jones gonna be the starting quarterback.”
Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skillHow this was scored
- club:
- IND
- skill:
- 0
- player:
- Daniel Jones
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- position:
- QB
- naive slot:
- 1
- actual slot:
- 1
- difficulty:
- 2
- measured by:
- passing yards
- naive basis:
- where he sat last season
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- predicted slot:
- 1
- weeks left when called:
- 18
“Could Hampton be a thirteen hundred yard rusher and have ten plus touchdowns”
Scored 0a naive guess scored 72.63-145.26 skillHow this was scored
- naive:
- 4.63
- skill:
- -145.26
- what happened:
- 4
- player:
- Omarion Hampton
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 72.63
- predicted:
- 10
- statistic:
- rushing_tds
- difficulty:
- 2
- last season:
- no prior season
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- position average:
- 4.63
- zero at percent out:
- 50
“Could Hampton be a thirteen hundred yard rusher and have ten plus touchdowns because he's it's pretty freaking good.”
Scored 0a naive guess scored 39-78 skillHow this was scored
- naive:
- 378.78
- skill:
- -78
- what happened:
- 545
- player:
- Omarion Hampton
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 39
- predicted:
- 1300
- statistic:
- rushing_yards
- difficulty:
- 2
- last season:
- no prior season
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- position average:
- 378.78
- zero at percent out:
- 50
“I think the Bronx is gonna be pretty good. And if he's good and you have an elite defense, they're gonna win eleven twelve games.”
Scored 40a naive guess scored 5+70 skillHow this was scored
- team:
- DEN
- naive:
- 9.25
- skill:
- 70
- what happened:
- 14
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- 5
- accuracy:
- 40
- baseline:
- 5
- predicted:
- 11
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
“I don't think it's outrageous to go offensive rookie of the year... So I would say offensive Rookie of the Year would be on the table for sure.”
Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skillHow this was scored
- award:
- offensive_rookie_of_the_year
- naive:
- the naive pick was Jayden Daniels, who won it the year before
- skill:
- 0
- player:
- Omarion Hampton
- season:
- 2025
- winner:
- Tetairoa McMillan
- correct:
- false
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
“I know Sirianni has won the Super Bowl, but I would take Dan Campbell over Nick Sirianni.”
Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skillHow this was scored
- best:
- Mike Vrabel
- skill:
- 0
- method:
- spearman
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- settled by:
- wins above the prior-season baseline
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- coaches ranked:
- 2
- weeks left when called:
- 18
“Like I'm sorry, Patrick Mahomes is one. Like I don't even know how you argue”
Scored 8.33a naive guess scored 58.33-100 skillHow this was scored
- skill:
- -100
- player:
- Patrick Mahomes
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- 12
- accuracy:
- 8.33
- baseline:
- 58.33
- position:
- QB
- ranked by:
- passing yards
- difficulty:
- 2
- naive basis:
- where he finished last season
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- naive finish:
- 7
- actual finish:
- 12
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- predicted finish:
- 1
“I think he's a top twelve quarterback who is really really underachieved in January”
Scored 25a naive guess scored 0+50 skillHow this was scored
- skill:
- 50
- player:
- Dak Prescott
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- 12
- accuracy:
- 25
- baseline:
- 0
- position:
- QB
- ranked by:
- passing yards
- difficulty:
- 2
- naive basis:
- where he finished last season
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- naive finish:
- 31
- actual finish:
- 3
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- predicted finish:
- 12
“I'd be stunned if he got seventy seven balls last year, if he didn't catch eighty plus balls this season.”
Scored 37.5a naive guess scored 90.28-105.56 skillHow this was scored
- naive:
- 52.33
- skill:
- -105.56
- what happened:
- 55
- player:
- Jauan Jennings
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 37.5
- baseline:
- 90.28
- predicted:
- 80
- statistic:
- receptions
- difficulty:
- 2
- last season:
- 77
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- position average:
- 27.65
- zero at percent out:
- 50
“But is he gonna be a top twelve starter, fifteen starter half of the league for sure of this year? Yes?”
Scored 41.67a naive guess scored 66.67-50 skillHow this was scored
- skill:
- -50
- player:
- Bo Nix
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- 12
- accuracy:
- 41.67
- baseline:
- 66.67
- position:
- QB
- ranked by:
- passing yards
- difficulty:
- 2
- naive basis:
- where he finished last season
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- naive finish:
- 12
- actual finish:
- 8
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- predicted finish:
- 15
“The Bears should win ten games.”
Scored 80a naive guess scored 15+130 skillHow this was scored
- team:
- CHI
- naive:
- 6.75
- skill:
- 130
- what happened:
- 11
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- 5
- accuracy:
- 80
- baseline:
- 15
- predicted:
- 10
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
“There's no way you can have the Bears above the Broncos. It's impossible.”
Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skillHow this was scored
- skill:
- 0
- method:
- spearman
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- teams ranked:
- 2
- weeks left when called:
- 18
“are you niece torn Ricky Pearsall is already injured? Like I am, clearly the number one wide receiver on this team heading into week one, not even debatable”
Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skillHow this was scored
- club:
- SF
- skill:
- 0
- player:
- Jauan Jennings
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- position:
- WR
- naive slot:
- 1
- actual slot:
- 1
- difficulty:
- 2
- measured by:
- receptions
- naive basis:
- where he sat last season
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- predicted slot:
- 1
- weeks left when called:
- 18
“if he has the Patriots and who's the other team he is in the playoffs, Oh the Colts. I respect that”
Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-200 skillHow this was scored
- team:
- IND
- skill:
- -200
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 100
- naive said:
- false
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- made playoffs:
- false
- weeks left when called:
- 18
“I also though, if he has the Patriots and who's the other team he is in the playoffs, Oh the Colts.”
Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+200 skillHow this was scored
- team:
- NE
- skill:
- 200
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- naive said:
- false
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- made playoffs:
- true
- weeks left when called:
- 18
“And let's face it, the Anthey Richardson. He is the new version of Trey Lance. They swung for the fences that they whiffed.”
Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+200 skillHow this was scored
- pick:
- 4
- draft:
- 2023
- naive:
- the pick returned about what it cost
- round:
- 1
- skill:
- 200
- player:
- Anthony Richardson
- season:
- 2025
- correct:
- true
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- position:
- QB
- best finish:
- QB25 in 2024
- difficulty:
- 2
- had to reach:
- QB5
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- seasons played:
- 3
- weeks left when called:
- 18
“If I had to pick these three guys, like Who'd I want on my team, I would go Stingley, McDuffie, Sauce. ... But if my life depended on it, you'd have to choose Sauce because he's the least of the three. I would say, fluid athlete”
Scored 75a naive guess scored 50+50 skillHow this was scored
- naive:
- a coin-flip ordering scores 50
- skill:
- 50
- placed:
- 3
- season:
- 2025
- players:
- 3
- accuracy:
- 75
- baseline:
- 50
- by position:
- CB 3: 75
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- could not place:
- 0
- weeks left when called:
- 18
“It would not shock me to see them struggle to win four or five games. I think they're going to be terrible.”
Scored 60a naive guess scored 75-30 skillHow this was scored
- team:
- MIA
- naive:
- 8.25
- skill:
- -30
- what happened:
- 7
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- 5
- accuracy:
- 60
- baseline:
- 75
- predicted:
- 5
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
“So I think the Niners probably more likely to win nine or ten games.”
Scored 60a naive guess scored 5+110 skillHow this was scored
- team:
- SF
- naive:
- 7.25
- skill:
- 110
- what happened:
- 12
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- 5
- accuracy:
- 60
- baseline:
- 5
- predicted:
- 10
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
“I mean the Titans from what I've heard, I was in Nashville month ago, pretty good source. They've been dead set on him for like a month. This guy's going the number one pick”
Scored 100a naive guess scored 50How this was scored
- draft:
- 2025
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- player:
- Cam Ward
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 1
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 100
- predicted pick:
- 1
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- only one pick — no order to score
“Well this year it's nine and a half... Why couldn't they win twelve games? I mean, they're over under right now is nine and a half. I think they are a lock.”
Scored 80a naive guess scored 75+10 skillHow this was scored
- team:
- LAC
- naive:
- 9.75
- skill:
- 10
- what happened:
- 11
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- 5
- accuracy:
- 80
- baseline:
- 75
- predicted:
- 10
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
“Why couldn't they go nine to eight this year?... I could see the Patriots winning eight or nine games.”
Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skillHow this was scored
- team:
- NE
- naive:
- 6.25
- skill:
- 0
- what happened:
- 14
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- 5
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- predicted:
- 9
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18