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Field Yates· Feb 19, 2026

In his latest mock draft, Yates has Fernando Mendoza going No. 1 overall to the Raiders (a pick he says can be etched in stone), the Jets taking edge rusher Arbel Reiss at No. 2, the Titans taking David Bailey in the first round, and the Cowboys selecting Ohio State linebacker Sonny Styles at No. 12 as the first linebacker off the board.

“There is one pick that we can write in stone right now... That is, of course, Fernando Mendoza to the Las Vegas Raiders at number one overall.”

said on air, transcribed by us · NFL Live (podcast) · read the original →

5 checkable claims — 4 mock draft picks and 1 position order call — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.

It names 8 players and teams, each linked to their own record.

All 5 have settled, averaging 83.7 out of 100, against 43.6 for a naive guess at the same calls.

Their call against what happened

overall pick
12They said
7What happened

Their call against what actually happened.

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Who this take is about

5 checkable claims in this take

Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.

  • Mock Draft PicksSonny StylesDallas CowboysFeb 19, 2026

    Sonny Styles to be picked at number 12

    “Field has Dallas taking a linebacker at number 12, Sonny Styles out of Ohio State.”

    Hit · 81Scored 80.52 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 100 against a shuffle’s 50+50 skill
    How this was scored
    draft:
    2026
    naive:
    a shuffled mock scores 50
    skill:
    50
    player:
    Sonny Styles
    season:
    2025
    zero at:
    32
    accuracy:
    80.52
    baseline:
    50
    actual pick:
    7
    difficulty:
    1
    weeks in the season:
    18
    pick accuracy:
    80.52
    predicted pick:
    12
    weeks left when called:
    0
    mock ordering score:
    100

    Think this is wrong?

  • Mock Draft PicksDavid BaileyTennessee TitansFeb 19, 2026

    David Bailey to be picked “first round” (picks 1–32)

    “See here Field has the Jets and Titans going with edge rushers, Ohio State's Arbel Reiss, and Texas Tech's David Bailey.”

    Hit · 100Scored 100 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 100 against a shuffle’s 50+50 skill
    How this was scored
    draft:
    2026
    naive:
    a shuffled mock scores 50
    skill:
    50
    player:
    David Bailey
    season:
    2025
    zero at:
    32
    accuracy:
    100
    baseline:
    50
    actual pick:
    2
    difficulty:
    1
    weeks in the season:
    18
    pick accuracy:
    100
    predicted pick:
    first round (picks 1–32)
    weeks left when called:
    0
    mock ordering score:
    100

    Think this is wrong?

  • Position Order CallsSonny StylesDallas CowboysFeb 19, 2026

    Sonny Styles to be 1st linebacker off the board

    “He's the first linebacker off the board in fields mock.”

    Close · 50Scored 50a naive guess scored 17.77+32.23 skill
    How this was scored
    draft:
    2026
    naive:
    naming one of the 26 at random averages 17.77
    skill:
    32.23
    player:
    Sonny Styles
    season:
    2025
    zero at:
    credit halves every two places
    accuracy:
    50
    baseline:
    17.77
    position:
    linebacker
    class size:
    26
    difficulty:
    1
    weeks in the season:
    18
    actual order:
    3
    predicted order:
    1
    weeks left when called:
    0

    Think this is wrong?

  • Mock Draft PicksFernando MendozaLas Vegas RaidersFeb 19, 2026

    Fernando Mendoza to be picked at number 1

    “There is one pick that we can write in stone right now, etching stone. That is, of course, Fernando Mendoza to the Las Vegas Raiders at number one overall.”

    Hit · 100Scored 100 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 100 against a shuffle’s 50+50 skill
    How this was scored
    draft:
    2026
    naive:
    a shuffled mock scores 50
    skill:
    50
    player:
    Fernando Mendoza
    season:
    2025
    zero at:
    32
    accuracy:
    100
    baseline:
    50
    actual pick:
    1
    difficulty:
    1
    weeks in the season:
    18
    pick accuracy:
    100
    predicted pick:
    1
    weeks left when called:
    0
    mock ordering score:
    100

    Think this is wrong?

  • Mock Draft PicksArvell ReeseNew York JetsFeb 19, 2026

    Arvell Reese to be picked at number 2

    “Field has the Jets and Titans going with edge rushers, Ohio State's Arbel Reiss, and Texas Tech's David Bailey... If Edge is the pick for the jets at number two, is Reese automatically the choice in your mind?”

    Hit · 88Scored 87.81 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 100 against a shuffle’s 50+50 skill
    How this was scored
    draft:
    2026
    naive:
    a shuffled mock scores 50
    skill:
    50
    player:
    Arvell Reese
    season:
    2025
    zero at:
    32
    accuracy:
    87.81
    baseline:
    50
    actual pick:
    5
    difficulty:
    1
    weeks in the season:
    18
    pick accuracy:
    87.81
    predicted pick:
    2
    weeks left when called:
    0
    mock ordering score:
    100

    Think this is wrong?

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