AJ Hawk· Sep 11, 2026
AJ Hawk picked the Ravens over the Colts, Carolina to beat Chicago outright, the Bills at Houston, the Bengals over Tampa Bay, the Titans over the Jets, the Raiders over Miami, the Packers at Minnesota and the Cowboys over the Giants.
“I like Carolina to probably win this one outright.”
said on air, transcribed by us · The Pat McAfee Show (podcast) · read the original →
8 checkable claims — 8 game outcome picks — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.
It names 8 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
All 8 have settled, averaging 50 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess at the same calls.
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Who this take is about
The games in this take
- Ravens at Colts 24 calls
- Jets at Titans 25 calls
- Buccaneers at Bengals 31 calls
- Bears at Panthers 28 calls
- Bills at Texans 46 calls
- Packers at Vikings 41 calls
- Dolphins at Raiders 34 calls
- Cowboys at Giants 42 calls
8 checkable claims in this take
Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.
- Game Outcome PicksGreen Bay PackersSep 11, 2026
Green Bay Packers to win
“I will go with the Green Bay Packers plus one and a half in Minnesota. AJ will as well.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-200 skillHow this was scored
- won:
- MIN
- score:
- 22-39
- skill:
- -200
- they picked:
- GB
- season:
- 2026
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive pick:
- MIN
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- Game Outcome PicksLas Vegas RaidersSep 11, 2026
Las Vegas Raiders to win
“AJ? Give me the Raiders.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skillHow this was scored
- won:
- LV
- score:
- 13-27
- skill:
- 0
- they picked:
- LV
- season:
- 2026
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive pick:
- LV
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- Game Outcome PicksCincinnati BengalsSep 11, 2026
Cincinnati Bengals to win
“It's a new time in Cincy. Give me the Cincinnati Bengals minus three and a half”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skillHow this was scored
- won:
- CIN
- score:
- 27-33
- skill:
- 0
- they picked:
- CIN
- season:
- 2026
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive pick:
- CIN
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- Game Outcome PicksDallas CowboysSep 11, 2026
Dallas Cowboys to win
“AJ, who goes like Cowboys.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-200 skillHow this was scored
- won:
- NYG
- score:
- 20-28
- skill:
- -200
- they picked:
- DAL
- season:
- 2026
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive pick:
- NYG
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- Game Outcome PicksTennessee TitansSep 11, 2026
Tennessee Titans to win
“AJ. Yeah. Even the Titans at home.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skillHow this was scored
- won:
- NYJ
- score:
- 23-10
- skill:
- 0
- they picked:
- TEN
- season:
- 2026
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- the naive pick:
- TEN
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- Game Outcome PicksBaltimore RavensSep 11, 2026
Baltimore Ravens to win
“the more you talked about it, made me realize I'm taking the Baltimore Ravens”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+200 skillHow this was scored
- won:
- BAL
- score:
- 41-23
- skill:
- 200
- they picked:
- BAL
- season:
- 2026
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- the naive pick:
- IND
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- Game Outcome PicksBuffalo BillsSep 11, 2026
Buffalo Bills to win
“I gotta take the Buffalo Bills. On the road, Josh Allen... so give me the Bills.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+200 skillHow this was scored
- won:
- BUF
- score:
- 36-31
- skill:
- 200
- they picked:
- BUF
- season:
- 2026
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- the naive pick:
- HOU
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- Game Outcome PicksCarolina PanthersSep 11, 2026
Carolina Panthers to win
“I like Carolina here. I like Carolina to probably win this one outright”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skillHow this was scored
- won:
- CHI
- score:
- 59-37
- skill:
- 0
- they picked:
- CAR
- season:
- 2026
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- the naive pick:
- CAR
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
What others said about the same people
- Mike MoraitisTrade and Signing Calls · DaRon BlandHit · 100Moraitis names five Cowboys he expects to be playing their final season opener in Dallas in 2026: George Pickens (likely tag-and-trade or departure), Malik Hooker, Luke Schoonmaker, DeMarvion Overshown and DaRon Bland.
- Mason CameronDepth Chart Calls · Ethan PocicMiss · 0An unsigned PFF piece ranks the NFL's top 32 centers heading into the 2026 season, with Creed Humphrey first for the fourth straight year, and names Ethan Pocic and Austin Schlottmann as the favorites to win starting center jobs in Baltimore and Tennessee.
- Fernando Alfaro-DonisTrade and Signing Calls · Kayshon BoutteMiss · 0Argues the Raiders' weakest spot is their receiver room, expects Jalen Nailor to take a big step forward in Klint Kubiak's scheme with Kirk Cousins starting before Fernando Mendoza takes over, and suggests Las Vegas should trade a mid-round pick for Patriots receiver Kayshon Boutte, who would immediately become their top option.
- Brandon CarneyTrade and Signing Calls · Stefon DiggsMiss · 0Carney drafted a team of rookies he expects to make an immediate fantasy impact (headlined by Karnell Tate and Makai Lemon), predicted landing spots for the remaining big-name free agents, and gave way-too-early division winners, wild cards and award picks — Patriots, Chargers, Bengals, Jaguars, Eagles, Rams, Vikings and Saints as division champs with Joe Burrow as MVP.
- Pat FitzmauriceTrade and Signing Calls · Trey HendricksonMiss · 0Fitzmorris made picks 4, 7, 10, 13, 16, 19, 22, 25, 28 and 31 in the 2026 mock, ranked the top three receiver prospects Tate-Lemon-Tyson, said Caleb Downs won't fall to Day 2, and predicted Trey Hendrickson won't be back in Cincinnati.
- Evan SilvaFantasy Defense Calls · Baltimore RavensClose · 58In his 2020 fantasy defense/special teams rankings, Silva puts the Steelers first, the 49ers second and the Ravens third, citing pass rush, favorable early schedules and game scripts.
More game outcome picks
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
- Danny ParkinsGame Outcome Picks · Denver BroncosMiss · 0Parkins picked the Giants to upset Dallas, the Steelers to beat Atlanta by two scores, the Bears to beat Carolina, the Bills to beat Houston and Denver to beat Kansas City outright; he also said Justin Herbert will win an MVP and had the Bengals as AFC North champs.
- Eric ManginiGame Outcome Picks · Denver BroncosMiss · 0Mangini's upset alert was Washington over Philadelphia; in the chips segment he backed Houston, Dallas and Denver; and his Monday headline was Cincinnati mauling Tampa Bay, with Joe Burrow as his MVP and the Bengals as AFC North champs.
- Shannon SharpeGame Outcome Picks · Denver BroncosMiss · 0Sharpe predicted Matthew Stafford would throw four touchdowns in the Thursday night game against the 49ers, picked Tampa Bay to beat Cincinnati at home, took the Broncos over Kansas City on Monday night with Bonitto getting 2.5 sacks, and expects big fantasy value from kicker Brandon Aubrey.
- Tyler SullivanGame Outcome Picks · Denver BroncosMiss · 0An unsigned CBS Sports piece flags five Week 1 underdogs as upset candidates: the 49ers over the Rams in Melbourne, the Texans over the Bills, the Panthers over the Bears, the Jets over the Titans, and the Broncos over the Chiefs on Monday night.
- Mitch GoldichGame Outcome Picks · Denver BroncosMiss · 0Goldich's Week 1 straight-up picks for all 16 games.
- John PluymGame Outcome Picks · Kansas City ChiefsHit · 100Pluym's Week 1 straight-up picks for all 16 games.