Skip to main content
MissedTakes
Menu

Chris Brockman· Feb 23, 2026

Brockman's overreaction slate: Breece Hall leaves the Jets and plays in the playoffs next season, Jaxon Smith-Njigba is the best receiver in the league, three quarterbacks (Mendoza first overall, plus Ty Simpson and Carson Beck) go in the first round, and the Patriots crater to a 7-10 season.

“Reese Hall's gonna be in the playoffs next year, and the Jets will again be fourth in the AFC.”

said on air, transcribed by us · The Rich Eisen Show (podcast) · read the original →

6 checkable claims — 3 mock draft picks, 1 positional finishe, 1 season win total and 1 trade and signing call — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.

It names 7 players and teams, each linked to their own record.

4 of 6 have settled so far, averaging 56 out of 100, against 37.5 for a naive guess at the same calls.

Of the 1 unsettled call enough other pundits have weighed in on, this one lands below the rest of the room.

Their call against what happened

overall pick
first round (picks 1–32)They said
65What happened

Their call against what actually happened.

Where do you stand? Pick this and every open claim on Picks →

Who this take is about

6 checkable claims in this take

Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.

  • Carson Beck to be picked “first round” (picks 1–32)

    “Three quarterbacks are going in the first round... You said Ty Simpson and Carson Beck? ... I am gonna call my shot. It is those three quarterbacks.”

    Miss · 24Scored 23.94a naive guess scored 50
    How this was scored
    draft:
    2026
    naive:
    a shuffled mock scores 50
    player:
    Carson Beck
    season:
    2025
    zero at:
    32
    accuracy:
    23.94
    baseline:
    50
    actual pick:
    65
    difficulty:
    1
    weeks in the season:
    18
    pick accuracy:
    23.94
    predicted pick:
    first round (picks 1–32)
    weeks left when called:
    0
    mock ordering score:
    only one pick — no order to score

    Think this is wrong?

  • Fernando Mendoza to be picked at number 1

    “And we know he's going first. We know he's going number one.”

    Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 50
    How this was scored
    draft:
    2026
    naive:
    a shuffled mock scores 50
    player:
    Fernando Mendoza
    season:
    2025
    zero at:
    32
    accuracy:
    100
    baseline:
    50
    actual pick:
    1
    difficulty:
    1
    weeks in the season:
    18
    pick accuracy:
    100
    predicted pick:
    1
    weeks left when called:
    0
    mock ordering score:
    only one pick — no order to score

    Think this is wrong?

  • New England Patriots to finish with 7 wins

    “I've seen some people in New England are already freaking out about a seven and ten season. That's how bad it's gonna be. That's how bad it's gonna be next year”

    Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skill
    How this was scored
    team:
    NE
    naive:
    6.25
    skill:
    0
    what happened:
    14
    season:
    2025
    zero at:
    5
    accuracy:
    0
    baseline:
    0
    predicted:
    7
    difficulty:
    1
    weeks in the season:
    18
    weeks left when called:
    0

    Think this is wrong?

  • Ty Simpson to be picked “first round” (picks 1–32)

    “Three quarterbacks are going in the first round... You said Ty Simpson and Carson Beck? ... I am gonna call my shot. It is those three quarterbacks.”

    Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 50
    How this was scored
    draft:
    2026
    naive:
    a shuffled mock scores 50
    player:
    Ty Simpson
    season:
    2025
    zero at:
    32
    accuracy:
    100
    baseline:
    50
    actual pick:
    13
    difficulty:
    1
    weeks in the season:
    18
    pick accuracy:
    100
    predicted pick:
    first round (picks 1–32)
    weeks left when called:
    0
    mock ordering score:
    only one pick — no order to score

    Think this is wrong?

  • Jaxon Smith-Njigba to finish top 1 at his position, by receiving yards

    “Super Bowl champion, offensive player of the year, and JSN is the best wide receiver in the NFL and should be the highest paid at the position.”

    Too vague to check — we could not tell what would count as right.

    Think this is wrong?

  • Breece Hall to move

    “Okay. Reese Hall's gonna be in the playoffs next year, and the Jets will again be fourth in the AFC. / You're just assuming that the jets are just gonna watch another guy go.”

    Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.

    Think this is wrong?

What others said about the same people

More mock draft picks

The same kind of call, about other players and teams.

Discussed alongside these