Marcus Mosher · May 21, 2024

Mosher names four breakout wide receiver candidates for 2024: Drake London, Khalil Shakir, Wan'Dale Robinson and Marvin Mims. He suggests London could see around 150 targets and lead the NFL in catches and yards, and that Mims could reach 1,000 receiving yards and become Denver's No. 1 receiver by season's end.

“It won't be a shock to see him lead the NFL in catches and yards this season.”

published in writing · The 33rd Team · read the original →

9 checkable claims from this

Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.

Positional FinishesMay 21, 2024
“It won't be a shock to see him lead the NFL in catches and yards this season.”
Scored 58.33a naive guess scored 0+116.67 skill
How this was scored
skill:
116.67
player:
Drake London
season:
2024
zero at:
12
accuracy:
58.33
baseline:
0
position:
WR
difficulty:
2
naive basis:
where he finished last season
weeks in the season:
18
naive finish:
42
actual finish:
6
weeks left when called:
18
predicted finish:
1
Think this is wrong?
Player Season NumbersMay 21, 2024
“If the Broncos get average play from Nix this season, Mims has a chance to be a 1,000-yard receiver in Payton's offense.”
Scored 0.6a naive guess scored 51.47-101.75 skill
How this was scored
naive:
380.95
skill:
-101.75
what happened:
503
player:
Marvin Mims Jr.
season:
2024
accuracy:
0.6
baseline:
51.47
predicted:
1000
statistic:
receiving_yards
difficulty:
2
last season:
377
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
18
position average:
384.91
zero at percent out:
50
Think this is wrong?
Depth Chart CallsMay 21, 2024
“It wouldn't be a shock if he was Denver's No. 1 receiver by the end of the season.”
Scored 83.33a naive guess scored 100-33.33 skill
How this was scored
club:
DEN
skill:
-33.33
player:
Marvin Mims Jr.
season:
2024
accuracy:
83.33
baseline:
100
position:
WR
naive slot:
3
actual slot:
3
difficulty:
2
measured by:
receptions
naive basis:
where he sat last season
weeks in the season:
18
predicted slot:
1
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?
Positional FinishesMay 21, 2024
“It won't be a shock to see him lead the NFL in catches and yards this season.”
Scored 58.33a naive guess scored 0+116.67 skill
How this was scored
skill:
116.67
player:
Drake London
season:
2024
zero at:
12
accuracy:
58.33
baseline:
0
position:
WR
difficulty:
2
naive basis:
where he finished last season
weeks in the season:
18
naive finish:
42
actual finish:
6
weeks left when called:
18
predicted finish:
1
Think this is wrong?
Depth Chart CallsMay 21, 2024
“rookie Malik Nabers gives the New York Giants a No. 1 receiver”
Scored 100a naive guess scored 91.67+16.67 skill
How this was scored
club:
NYG
skill:
16.67
player:
Malik Nabers
season:
2024
accuracy:
100
baseline:
91.67
position:
WR
naive slot:
2
actual slot:
1
difficulty:
2
measured by:
receptions
naive basis:
no prior season — a rookie is assumed to start behind the incumbent
weeks in the season:
18
predicted slot:
1
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?
Sleeper CallsMay 21, 2024
“Here are four potential breakout receivers ahead of the 2024 season: Potential Breakout Wide Receivers — Drake London, Atlanta Falcons”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the season it describes has finished.
Think this is wrong?
Sleeper CallsMay 21, 2024
“Wan'Dale Robinson, New York Giants ... listed among four potential breakout receivers”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the season it describes has finished.
Think this is wrong?
Sleeper CallsMay 21, 2024
“Marvin Mims, Denver Broncos ... listed among four potential breakout receivers”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the season it describes has finished.
Think this is wrong?
Sleeper CallsMay 21, 2024
“one player who will take on a bigger role will be Khalil Shakir, a third-year receiver from Boise State”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the season it describes has finished.
Think this is wrong?