Andrew Erickson· Jan 17, 2026
Erickson gave his 2026 first-round board, leaning on running backs early with Bijan Robinson and Jahmyr Gibbs, Ja'Marr Chase as his WR1 and Christian McCaffrey slipping to 12. He also touted Malik Nabers as a buying opportunity, projected big touchdown numbers for Burrow and Chase, and called Barkley a buy-low.
“So pick nine, I'm on Ross Saint Brown. Pick ten, Devon a Chan... Pick eleven is take one Barkley... And then pick twelve, mister Christian McCaffrey.”
said on air or in an interview · The Herd with Colin Cowherd (podcast) · read the original →
The page this came from has changed since we captured it on Aug 5, 2026. The quote and evidence above are from our capture, not from what the page says today.
6 checkable claims — 2 player season numbers, 1 depth chart call, 1 fantasy ranking, 1 positional finishe and 1 trade and signing call — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.
It names 8 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
All 6 have settled, averaging 56.3 out of 100, against 50.3 for a naive guess at the same calls.
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Who this take is about
6 checkable claims in this take
Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.
- Trade and Signing CallsA.J. BrownJan 17, 2026
A.J. Brown to move
“AJJ Brown is gone, like he's not coming back to the Philadelphia Eagles”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+200 skillHow this was scored
- skill:
- 200
- player:
- A.J. Brown
- season:
- 2026
- claimed:
- he leaves
- was with:
- PHI
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- reported:
- traded → NE (from PHI)
- settled by:
- a confirmed report from the crawl (reported outcomes)
- difficulty:
- 2
- the naive guess:
- he stays where he is
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- Fantasy RankingsJan 17, 2026
“Yes, going with Jeon Robinson... So he's my number two player [Gibbs]... My number one wide receiver is Jamar Chase... So James Cook for me is number four... I got Jackson Smith and Jig Pooka, Nakua, Jonathan Taylor, and Cede Lamb rounding out picks five through eight... So pick nine, I'm on Ross Saint Brown. Pick ten, Devon a Chan. Pick eleven is take one Barkley... And then pick twelve, mister Christian McCaffrey.”
Close · 56Scored 56.25a naive guess scored 50+6.25 skillHow this was scored
- naive:
- a coin-flip ordering scores 50
- skill:
- 6.25
- placed:
- 12
- season:
- 2025
- players:
- 12
- accuracy:
- 56.25
- baseline:
- 50
- by position:
- RB 7: 57.14, WR 5: 55
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- could not place:
- 0
- weeks left when called:
- 0
Ja'Marr Chase to record 15 receiving tds
“and that means Chase is going to catch fifteen, sixty, maybe twenty touchdowns”
Miss · 7Scored 6.67a naive guess scored 56.87-50.21 skillHow this was scored
- naive:
- 10.2
- skill:
- -50.21
- what happened:
- 8
- player:
- Ja'Marr Chase
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 6.67
- baseline:
- 56.87
- predicted:
- 15
- statistic:
- receiving_tds
- difficulty:
- 1
- last season:
- 17
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- position average:
- 3.4
- zero at percent out:
- 50
Joe Burrow to record 45 passing tds
“I wouldn't blink twice if Joe Burrow throws forty five touchdowns next year if he's healthy”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 20.05-20.05 skillHow this was scored
- naive:
- 28.32
- skill:
- -20.05
- what happened:
- 17
- player:
- Joe Burrow
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 20.05
- predicted:
- 45
- statistic:
- passing_tds
- difficulty:
- 1
- last season:
- 43
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- position average:
- 13.64
- zero at percent out:
- 50
- Positional FinishesJames CookBuffalo BillsJan 17, 2026
James Cook to finish top 3 at his position, by fantasy points
“they're like, no, we're playing James Hook on third downs Now, I could see him being a top three finisher again.”
Hit · 83Scored 83.33a naive guess scored 83.33+0 skillHow this was scored
- skill:
- 0
- player:
- James Cook
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- 12
- accuracy:
- 83.33
- baseline:
- 83.33
- position:
- RB
- ranked by:
- fantasy points
- difficulty:
- 1
- the naive guess:
- where he finished last season
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- naive finish:
- 7
- actual finish:
- 5
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- predicted finish:
- 3
DeVonta Smith to be 1st on the depth chart
“so you have Devonte Smith stepping in as a wide receiver One.”
Hit · 92Scored 91.67a naive guess scored 91.67+0 skillHow this was scored
- club:
- PHI
- skill:
- 0
- player:
- DeVonta Smith
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 91.67
- baseline:
- 91.67
- position:
- WR
- naive slot:
- 1
- actual slot:
- 2
- difficulty:
- 1
- measured by:
- receptions
- the naive guess:
- where he sat last season
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- predicted slot:
- 1
- weeks left when called:
- 0
What others said about the same people
- Nick WrightGame Outcome Picks · Buffalo BillsHit · 100Nick Wright expects the Bills to beat the Lions comfortably in the Thursday night home opener, with Josh Allen shredding a depleted Detroit secondary, and he also picks a workmanlike Chiefs win over the Colts on Sunday night. He further predicts Tyreek Hill will end up on the Chiefs by around Halloween.
- Steven RuizTrade and Signing Calls · A.J. BrownHit · 100Ruiz expects the Eagles to trade A.J. Brown once the June 1 dead-cap threshold passes, most likely to New England, and thinks Baker Mayfield will get a Buccaneers extension making him the league's highest-paid quarterback within a month or two. He also argues the Lions may have to let one or two of their 2023 draft class leave, and that Houston should extend C.J. Stroud.
- Diante LeeTrade and Signing Calls · A.J. BrownHit · 100A Ringer post-draft power ranking of all 32 teams for the 2026 season, ranked by how much the writer would trust each team to win the Super Bowl, with Denver picked to win the AFC, Detroit projected among the NFC's four best, and win-total calls on Pittsburgh and Miami.
- Scott BogmanTrade and Signing Calls · A.J. BrownHit · 100Bogman laid out fades on Malik Nabers (knee), Kenneth Walker, Bhayshul Tuten, Christian Watson, Jackson Dart and Sam LaPorta, while liking Isaiah Likely and staying more positive on DJ Moore; he also gave his top-seven tight end board and expected Tuten to lead Jacksonville's backfield.
- Brandon CarneyTrade and Signing Calls · A.J. BrownHit · 100Carney drafted a team of rookies he expects to make an immediate fantasy impact (headlined by Karnell Tate and Makai Lemon), predicted landing spots for the remaining big-name free agents, and gave way-too-early division winners, wild cards and award picks — Patriots, Chargers, Bengals, Jaguars, Eagles, Rams, Vikings and Saints as division champs with Joe Burrow as MVP.
- Jeremy WhiteTrade and Signing Calls · A.J. BrownHit · 100Jeremy White expects the Patriots to acquire AJ Brown, calling the trade likely inevitable within about a month.
More player season numbers
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
- Ross JacksonPlayer Season Numbers · Tyler ShoughMiss · 4Jackson projects a big sophomore jump for Saints QB Tyler Shuck, laying out a Drake May-style stat line (17 starts, 72% completions, ~4,601 passing yards, 24 TDs, 9 INTs) or a Bo Nix-style consistency line (over 4,000 yards, over 20 TDs, ~10 INTs), and says either path means a playoff season for New Orleans in 2026.
- Chris BroussardPlayer Season Numbers · Lamar JacksonMiss · 0Broussard expects Lamar Jackson to play well but not vintage — two touchdown passes and no picks — while Derrick Henry carries the load with over 100 rushing yards. He also takes the Browns to upset the Bengals and believes Myles Garrett gets at least two sacks to break the single-season record.
- Nick WrightPlayer Season Numbers · Myles GarrettHit · 100Wright picks the Steelers to beat the Ravens outright in Pittsburgh, takes Seattle over San Francisco, and thinks the Browns lose to Cincinnati even as Myles Garrett gets the sack record.
- Nick WrightPlayer Season Numbers · Myles GarrettHit · 84Nick Wright says Myles Garrett is playing at an all-time level and might reach 25 sacks this season, and among his weekly picks he expects the Bears to beat the Steelers in an ugly low-margin home win and Seattle to win comfortably at Tennessee.
- Shannon SharpePlayer Season Numbers · T.J. WattMiss · 0On a Bengals-Steelers matchup, Sharpe took the over on several player props: Ja'Marr Chase over 74.5 receiving yards, Joe Flacco over 36.5 pass attempts, and T.J. Watt over 3.5 tackles+assists, adding that Watt will get two sacks. He also predicted Rico Dowdle would make the Pro Bowl this season.
- Rich EisenPlayer Season Numbers · Micah ParsonsClose · 56Eisen made a series of picks: Micah Parsons will out-sack any two Cowboys combined (after initially leaning the other way), the NFC North is more likely to produce a Super Bowl team than the NFC East, Eagles wins will outnumber Cowboys losses, Bo Nix/Courtland Sutton will out-touchdown Cam Ward/Calvin Ridley, and Marvin Harrison Jr./James Conner will beat Kamara/Olave in yards and TDs. He also picked the AFC West order and said Deion Sanders is more likely than Bill Belichick to have a winning record.