Andrew Erickson · Jan 17, 2026

Erickson gave his 2026 first-round board, leaning on running backs early with Bijan Robinson and Jahmyr Gibbs, Ja'Marr Chase as his WR1 and Christian McCaffrey slipping to 12. He also touted Malik Nabers as a buying opportunity, projected big touchdown numbers for Burrow and Chase, and called Barkley a buy-low.

“So pick nine, I'm on Ross Saint Brown. Pick ten, Devon a Chan... Pick eleven is take one Barkley... And then pick twelve, mister Christian McCaffrey.”

said on air or in an interview · read the original →

8 checkable claims from this

Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.

Fantasy RankingsJan 17, 2026
“Yes, going with Jeon Robinson... So he's my number two player [Gibbs]... My number one wide receiver is Jamar Chase... So James Cook for me is number four... I got Jackson Smith and Jig Pooka, Nakua, Jonathan Taylor, and Cede Lamb rounding out picks five through eight... So pick nine, I'm on Ross Saint Brown. Pick ten, Devon a Chan. Pick eleven is take one Barkley... And then pick twelve, mister Christian McCaffrey.”
Scored 56.25a naive guess scored 50+6.25 skill
How this was scored
naive:
a coin-flip ordering scores 50
skill:
6.25
placed:
12
season:
2025
players:
12
accuracy:
56.25
baseline:
50
by position:
RB 7: 57.14, WR 5: 55
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
could not place:
0
weeks left when called:
0
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Player Season NumbersJan 17, 2026
“and that means Chase is going to catch fifteen, sixty, maybe twenty touchdowns”
Scored 6.67a naive guess scored 56.87-50.21 skill
How this was scored
naive:
10.2
skill:
-50.21
what happened:
8
player:
Ja'Marr Chase
season:
2025
accuracy:
6.67
baseline:
56.87
predicted:
15
statistic:
receiving_tds
difficulty:
1
last season:
17
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
0
position average:
3.4
zero at percent out:
50
Think this is wrong?
Player Season NumbersJan 17, 2026
“I wouldn't blink twice if Joe Burrow throws forty five touchdowns next year if he's healthy”
Scored 0a naive guess scored 20.05-20.05 skill
How this was scored
naive:
28.32
skill:
-20.05
what happened:
17
player:
Joe Burrow
season:
2025
accuracy:
0
baseline:
20.05
predicted:
45
statistic:
passing_tds
difficulty:
1
last season:
43
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
0
position average:
13.64
zero at percent out:
50
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Positional FinishesJan 17, 2026
“they're like, no, we're playing James Hook on third downs Now, I could see him being a top three finisher again.”
Scored 83.33a naive guess scored 83.33+0 skill
How this was scored
skill:
0
player:
James Cook
season:
2025
zero at:
12
accuracy:
83.33
baseline:
83.33
position:
RB
ranked by:
fantasy points
difficulty:
1
naive basis:
where he finished last season
weeks in the season:
18
naive finish:
7
actual finish:
5
weeks left when called:
0
predicted finish:
3
Think this is wrong?
Depth Chart CallsJan 17, 2026
“so you have Devonte Smith stepping in as a wide receiver One.”
Scored 91.67a naive guess scored 91.67+0 skill
How this was scored
club:
PHI
skill:
0
player:
DeVonta Smith
season:
2025
accuracy:
91.67
baseline:
91.67
position:
WR
naive slot:
1
actual slot:
2
difficulty:
1
measured by:
receptions
naive basis:
where he sat last season
weeks in the season:
18
predicted slot:
1
weeks left when called:
0
Think this is wrong?
Sleeper CallsJan 17, 2026
“So I like Barkley as a BILO option this year.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the season it describes has finished.
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Trade and Signing CallsJan 17, 2026
“AJJ Brown is gone, like he's not coming back to the Philadelphia Eagles”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the season it describes has finished.
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Sleeper CallsJan 17, 2026
“I think that there's a buying opportunity when it comes to Malik Neighbors because it just takes that one game where oh he's back, and then he's valued as that top five wide receiver”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the season it describes has finished.
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