Nick Shook· Mar 3, 2025
Nick Shook offered draft projections from the combine: Bhayshul Tuten will go earlier than expected, Nick Emmanwori is a first-round pick and the first safety drafted, Maxwell Hairston will be the first cornerback off the board, and Malaki Starks may have snuck into the first round. He also predicted Will Campbell profiles as a top-five guard in the NFL despite his short arms.
“He's the first-round pick, he's the first safety out the board.”
said on air or in an interview · Around the NFL (podcast) · read the original →
The page this came from has changed since we captured it on Aug 5, 2026. The quote and evidence above are from our capture, not from what the page says today.
7 checkable claims — 3 mock draft picks, 2 position order calls, 1 depth chart call and 1 positional finishe — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.
It names 5 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
5 of 7 have settled so far, averaging 84.2 out of 100, against 47.5 for a naive guess at the same calls.
Their call against what happened
Their call against what actually happened.
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Who this take is about
7 checkable claims in this take
Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.
- Depth Chart CallsWill CampbellMar 3, 2025
Will Campbell to be 1st on the depth chart
“he's got the potential to be an all pro guard because he wins with, his feet not with. His arms”
Hit · 92Scored 91.67a naive guess scored 100-16.67 skillHow this was scored
- club:
- NE
- skill:
- -16.67
- player:
- Will Campbell
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 91.67
- baseline:
- 100
- position:
- T
- naive slot:
- 2
- actual slot:
- 2
- difficulty:
- 2
- measured by:
- offensive snaps
- the naive guess:
- no prior season — a rookie is assumed to start behind the incumbent
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- predicted slot:
- 1
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- Mock Draft PicksMalaki StarksMar 3, 2025
Malaki Starks to be picked “may have snuck into the first round” (picks 1–32)
“he may have snuck into the first round”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 50How this was scored
- draft:
- 2025
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- player:
- Malaki Starks
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 27
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 100
- predicted pick:
- may have snuck into the first round (picks 1–32)
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- only one pick — no order to score
- Mock Draft PicksNick EmmanworiMar 3, 2025
Nick Emmanwori to be picked “first round pick” (picks 1–32)
“yeah he's the first, round pick he's the first safety out, the board”
Hit · 88Scored 87.81a naive guess scored 50How this was scored
- draft:
- 2025
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- player:
- Nick Emmanwori
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 87.81
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 35
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 87.81
- predicted pick:
- first round pick (picks 1–32)
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- only one pick — no order to score
- Position Order CallsNick EmmanworiMar 3, 2025
Nick Emmanwori to be 1st safety off the board
“he's the first safety out, the board”
Close · 71Scored 70.71a naive guess scored 19.61+51.1 skillHow this was scored
- draft:
- 2025
- naive:
- naming one of the 21 at random averages 19.61
- skill:
- 51.1
- player:
- Nick Emmanwori
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- credit halves every two places
- accuracy:
- 70.71
- baseline:
- 19.61
- position:
- safety
- class size:
- 21
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- actual order:
- 2
- predicted order:
- 1
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- Position Order CallsMaxwell HairstonMar 3, 2025
Maxwell Hairston to be 1st cornerback off the board
“I think he's going to be the first one off the board at the position and he makes the team”
Close · 71Scored 70.71a naive guess scored 17.91+52.8 skillHow this was scored
- draft:
- 2025
- naive:
- naming one of the 23 at random averages 17.91
- skill:
- 52.8
- player:
- Maxwell Hairston
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- credit halves every two places
- accuracy:
- 70.71
- baseline:
- 17.91
- position:
- cornerback
- class size:
- 23
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- actual order:
- 2
- predicted order:
- 1
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- Positional FinishesWill CampbellMar 3, 2025
Will Campbell to finish top 5 at his position, by an unstated measure
“He might be top five guard IN the nfl for a Long Time”
Too vague to check — we could not tell what would count as right.
- Mock Draft PicksBhayshul TutenMar 3, 2025
Bhayshul Tuten to be picked “goes earlier than expected”
“With Tuton, we're on the street. He's gaining some serious attention. So keep his name on your radar as somebody who goes earlier than expected.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
What others said about the same people
- Randy GurziRoster Spot Calls · Maxwell HairstonHit · 100Gurzi predicts the Buffalo Bills' final 53-man roster ahead of Week 1 against Houston, naming every player who makes it, who gets cut, and a few depth-chart outcomes (Damar Hamlin as backup safety, Alec Anderson as a new starter on the offensive line, Shane Buechele back on the practice squad).
- Joe MarinoRoster Spot Calls · Maxwell HairstonHit · 100Joe Marino gives his final projection of the Buffalo Bills' initial 53-man roster after the preseason finale, naming who makes it, who gets cut, and who lands on injured reserve/PUP, along with several starting-job calls (Kyle Allen as QB2, TJ Sanders starting over Landon Jackson, Maxwell Hairston starting opposite Christian Benford, and Tommy Doman winning the punting job).
- Ethan HurwitzRoster Spot Calls · Will CampbellHit · 100Hurwitz gives his latest 53-man roster projection for the Patriots after the preseason opener, naming who makes the team at each position and slotting rookie Jam Miller as RB3, Karon Prunty as CB4 and Kindle Vildor as CB5.
- Joe MarinoRoster Spot Calls · Maxwell HairstonHit · 100Marino gives his pre-training-camp 53-man roster projection for the Buffalo Bills, naming who makes the roster at each position group, who gets cut or lands on the practice squad, and a few depth-chart calls (Josh Allen as starter, Tommy Doman winning the punting job).
- Joe MarinoRoster Spot Calls · Maxwell HairstonHit · 100Marino gives his first 2026 Buffalo Bills 53-man roster projection, naming which players make the roster at each position, who gets cut, and who wins the starting jobs along the offensive line and at punter.
- Andrew EricksonSleeper Calls · Bhayshul TutenMiss · 0Erickson's must-have targets round by round: Nico Collins in round one (1,500 receiving yards if healthy), Drake London as a top-five WR in round two, Omarion Hampton as the Chargers' bell cow in round three, Kenneth Walker as a top-five fantasy back in round four, plus Tetairoa McMillan, Jaylen Waddle, Ricky Pearsall, Jordan Mason, Tucker Kraft, Drake Maye and a set of late-round fliers.
More mock draft picks
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
- Lance ZierleinMock Draft Picks · Jeremiyah LoveHit · 100Zierlein laid out his final mock draft: Jeremiah Love at No. 3 to Arizona, Sonny Styles at No. 4 to Robert Saleh's team, and Caleb Downs to the Giants at No. 5. He also called Styles the only first-round linebacker in the class and said Ty Simpson is a lock to be a first-round pick, most likely to Arizona.
- Gregg RosenthalMock Draft Picks · K.C. ConcepcionClose · 68Rosenthal disagrees most with Casey Concepcion being left out of the first round, arguing he could go as high as the top 15 and certainly won't last past receiver-needy teams in the late twenties.
- Daniel JeremiahMock Draft Picks · Keyron CrawfordHit · 81In discussing teams without first-round picks, Jeremiah projected specific Day 2 picks: Clemson WR Antonio Williams to the Falcons at 48, Texas Tech LB Jacob Rodriguez to the Colts in the second round, Oklahoma edge R Mason Thomas to the Packers at 52, and Auburn edge Keiroon Crawford to the Broncos at 62. He also expects Riley Leonard to open as the Colts' starting QB and Travis Hunter to play cornerback full time in Jacksonville.
- Daniel JeremiahMock Draft Picks · Carnell TateHit · 92Jeremiah says Denver, not Kansas City, will be the clear favorite in the AFC West this season; he also puts Carnell Tate sixth and Monroe Freeling twentieth on his prospect board, mocks Tate to Cleveland at No. 6, and expects Georgia receiver Branch to be a Day 2 pick after a strong pro day.
- Bucky BrooksMock Draft Picks · Carnell TateHit · 81In a mock draft covering the first 14 picks, Brooks made the odd-numbered selections: Fernando Mendoza to the Raiders at No. 1, a Miami offensive lineman to Arizona at No. 3, Caleb Downs to the Giants at No. 5, Ohio State's Arvell Reese to Washington at No. 7, Carnell Tate to Kansas City at No. 9, tight end Kenyon Sadiq to Miami at No. 11, and Spencer Fano to the Rams at No. 13.
- Jeff CavanaughMock Draft Picks · Lorenzo StylesMiss · 1Streaming from the NFL Combine, Jeff pegged safety Dylan Thienemann's draft range at roughly picks 20-35, said LSU safety AJ Halsey would cost a second- or third-round pick, and insisted Sonny Styles' brother would not be a top-50 selection despite a fast 40.