Mike Mayock· Apr 21, 2025
Mayock completed his mock draft, assigning picks 20 through 32: Tetairoa McMillan at 20, Shedeur Sanders to Pittsburgh at 21, and on through Walter Nolen to the Eagles at 32, including the Giants trading up to 24 for Jackson Dart.
“I've got the New York Giants trading up from 34 to 24 and taking Jackson Dart.”
said on air, transcribed by us · The Rich Eisen Show (podcast) · read the original →
13 checkable claims — 13 mock draft picks — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.
It names 25 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
All 13 have settled, averaging 69.3 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess at the same calls.
Their call against what happened
overall pick29They said
11What happened
Their call against what actually happened.
Where do you stand? Pick this and every open claim on Picks →
Who this take is about
- Mykel Williams
- Washington Commanders
- Shemar Stewart
- Kansas City Chiefs
- Malaki Starks
- Baltimore Ravens
- Emeka Egbuka
- Los Angeles Chargers
- Jaxson Dart
- New York Giants
- Tetairoa McMillan
- Shedeur Sanders
- Pittsburgh Steelers
- Donovan Ezeiruaku
- Detroit Lions
- Donovan Jackson
- Los Angeles Rams
- Walter Nolen
- Philadelphia Eagles
- Derrick Harmon
- Green Bay Packers
- Maxwell Hairston
- Buffalo Bills
- Josh Simmons
- Houston Texans
13 checkable claims in this take
Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.
Mykel Williams to be picked at number 29
“Let's start with Washington... They take Mikael Williams, six five, two sixty five, long arms”
Close · 46Scored 45.85 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 44.78 against a shuffle’s 50-5.22 skillHow this was scored
- draft:
- 2025
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- -5.22
- player:
- Mykel Williams
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 45.85
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 11
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 45.85
- predicted pick:
- 29
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 44.78
- Mock Draft PicksShemar StewartKansas City ChiefsApr 21, 2025
Shemar Stewart to be picked at number 31
“what do the Chiefs do here?... I've got him taking Shamar Stewart, the defensive band from A and M”
Close · 55Scored 54.53 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 44.78 against a shuffle’s 50-5.22 skillHow this was scored
- draft:
- 2025
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- -5.22
- player:
- Shemar Stewart
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 54.53
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 17
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 54.53
- predicted pick:
- 31
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 44.78
- Mock Draft PicksMalaki StarksBaltimore RavensApr 21, 2025
Malaki Starks to be picked at number 27
“The Ravens, with six more picks to go, twenty seventh overall... So they stick and pick a safety. Malachi Starks.”
Hit · 100Scored 100 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 44.78 against a shuffle’s 50-5.22 skillHow this was scored
- draft:
- 2025
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- -5.22
- player:
- Malaki Starks
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 27
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 100
- predicted pick:
- 27
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 44.78
- Mock Draft PicksEmeka EgbukaLos Angeles ChargersApr 21, 2025
Emeka Egbuka to be picked at number 22
“And I finally went, you know what? I'm I'm Mecca Abuka, the wide out from Ohio State to pair him with Ladd McConkie.”
Hit · 88Scored 87.81 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 44.78 against a shuffle’s 50-5.22 skillHow this was scored
- draft:
- 2025
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- -5.22
- player:
- Emeka Egbuka
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 87.81
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 19
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 87.81
- predicted pick:
- 22
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 44.78
- Mock Draft PicksJaxson DartNew York GiantsApr 21, 2025
Jaxson Dart to be picked at number 24
“So I've got the New York Giants trading up from 34 to 24 and taking jack Jackson Dart.”
Hit · 96Scored 95.76 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 44.78 against a shuffle’s 50-5.22 skillHow this was scored
- draft:
- 2025
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- -5.22
- player:
- Jaxson Dart
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 95.76
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 25
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 95.76
- predicted pick:
- 24
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 44.78
- Mock Draft PicksTetairoa McMillanApr 21, 2025
Tetairoa McMillan to be picked at number 20
“Tete McMillan, twentieth.”
Close · 59Scored 59.46 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 44.78 against a shuffle’s 50-5.22 skillHow this was scored
- draft:
- 2025
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- -5.22
- player:
- Tetairoa McMillan
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 59.46
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 8
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 59.46
- predicted pick:
- 20
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 44.78
Shedeur Sanders to be picked at number 21
“I do like Shador Sanders to Pittsburgh... And I'm hoping at 21, there'll be a little less pressure.”
Miss · 0Scored 0.49 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 44.78 against a shuffle’s 50-5.22 skillHow this was scored
- draft:
- 2025
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- -5.22
- player:
- Shedeur Sanders
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 0.49
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 144
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 0.49
- predicted pick:
- 21
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 44.78
- Mock Draft PicksDonovan EzeiruakuDetroit LionsApr 21, 2025
Donovan Ezeiruaku to be picked at number 28
“Twenty eighth overall Lions... So I gave him Dominic Esaraku from Boston College.”
Close · 50Scored 50 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 44.78 against a shuffle’s 50-5.22 skillHow this was scored
- draft:
- 2025
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- -5.22
- player:
- Donovan Ezeiruaku
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 50
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 44
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 50
- predicted pick:
- 28
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 44.78
- Mock Draft PicksDonovan JacksonLos Angeles RamsApr 21, 2025
Donovan Jackson to be picked at number 26
“And now the Rams do what? Twenty sixth overall... So I went with Donovan Jackson, another Buckeye.”
Hit · 92Scored 91.7 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 44.78 against a shuffle’s 50-5.22 skillHow this was scored
- draft:
- 2025
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- -5.22
- player:
- Donovan Jackson
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 91.7
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 24
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 91.7
- predicted pick:
- 26
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 44.78
- Mock Draft PicksWalter NolenPhiladelphia EaglesApr 21, 2025
Walter Nolen to be picked at number 32
“And Howie Roseman's now on the clock thirty second overall... So I'm giving him Walter Nolan, who is most one of the most gifted players in this draft.”
Close · 50Scored 50 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 44.78 against a shuffle’s 50-5.22 skillHow this was scored
- draft:
- 2025
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- -5.22
- player:
- Walter Nolen
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 50
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 16
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 50
- predicted pick:
- 32
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 44.78
- Mock Draft PicksDerrick HarmonGreen Bay PackersApr 21, 2025
Derrick Harmon to be picked at number 23
“So they they get Derek Harmon from Oregon, who's an immediate plug and play starter, a defensive tackle... I think he starts day one for for Green Bay.”
Hit · 92Scored 91.7 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 44.78 against a shuffle’s 50-5.22 skillHow this was scored
- draft:
- 2025
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- -5.22
- player:
- Derrick Harmon
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 91.7
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 21
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 91.7
- predicted pick:
- 23
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 44.78
- Mock Draft PicksMaxwell HairstonBuffalo BillsApr 21, 2025
Maxwell Hairston to be picked at number 30
“The Bills thirtieth overall do what?... We're gonna get the fourth corner, Maxwell Hairston from, Kentucky.”
Hit · 100Scored 100 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 44.78 against a shuffle’s 50-5.22 skillHow this was scored
- draft:
- 2025
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- -5.22
- player:
- Maxwell Hairston
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 30
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 100
- predicted pick:
- 30
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 44.78
- Mock Draft PicksJosh SimmonsHouston TexansApr 21, 2025
Josh Simmons to be picked at number 25
“I have them taken Josh Simmons from Ohio State... from an athletic perspective, he's a higher pick than 25.”
Close · 74Scored 73.84 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 44.78 against a shuffle’s 50-5.22 skillHow this was scored
- draft:
- 2025
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- -5.22
- player:
- Josh Simmons
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 73.84
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 32
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 73.84
- predicted pick:
- 25
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 44.78
What others said about the same people
- Thomas MartinezRoster Spot Calls · Patrick HerbertMiss · 0Martinez projects the Chargers' starting lineups on offense and defense for their Week 3 game at Buffalo, with injuries forcing several changes — Oronde Gadsden II at tight end, Trevor Penning at left guard, Jamaree Caldwell at defensive tackle and RJ Mickens at safety — while expecting Ladd McConkey to play and Marquez Valdez-Scantling to debut.
- Tyler SullivanRoster Spot Calls · Jake HaenerMiss · 0Sullivan expects the Giants, thin at quarterback after Jaxson Dart's season-ending knee injury, to elevate Jake Haener from the practice squad for Week 3.
- Randy GurziRoster Spot Calls · Te'Cory CouchMiss · 0Gurzi predicts the Buffalo Bills' final 53-man roster ahead of Week 1 against Houston, naming every player who makes it, who gets cut, and a few depth-chart outcomes (Damar Hamlin as backup safety, Alec Anderson as a new starter on the offensive line, Shane Buechele back on the practice squad).
- Joe MarinoRoster Spot Calls · Te'Cory CouchMiss · 0Joe Marino gives his final projection of the Buffalo Bills' initial 53-man roster after the preseason finale, naming who makes it, who gets cut, and who lands on injured reserve/PUP, along with several starting-job calls (Kyle Allen as QB2, TJ Sanders starting over Landon Jackson, Maxwell Hairston starting opposite Christian Benford, and Tommy Doman winning the punting job).
- Blaine GrisakRoster Spot Calls · Dean ConnorsMiss · 0Grisak argues Wesley Bailey has essentially played his way onto the Rams' roster after a 10-pressure preseason game, suggests Dean Connors and Tim Keenan III could be cut and stashed on the practice squad, and makes a case for Jarquez Hunter making the 53 despite bubble status.
- Blaine GrisakRoster Spot Calls · Dean ConnorsHit · 100After the Rams' first preseason game, Grisak predicted the full 53-man roster, naming three quarterbacks, four running backs, five receivers, five tight ends, nine offensive linemen, four linebackers, six defensive linemen, four edge rushers, five cornerbacks, five safeties and three special teamers, with Dean Connors headed for the practice squad instead.
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- Nick ShookMock Draft Picks · Max IheanachorHit · 88Shook walks through his full first-round mock draft, assigning a prospect to every pick from No. 1 to No. 32, headlined by Fernando Mendoza to the Raiders, David Bailey to the Jets and Jeremiah Love to the Cardinals in the top three.
- Gregg RosenthalMock Draft Picks · K.C. ConcepcionClose · 68Rosenthal disagrees most with Casey Concepcion being left out of the first round, arguing he could go as high as the top 15 and certainly won't last past receiver-needy teams in the late twenties.
- Daniel JeremiahMock Draft Picks · Keyron CrawfordHit · 81In discussing teams without first-round picks, Jeremiah projected specific Day 2 picks: Clemson WR Antonio Williams to the Falcons at 48, Texas Tech LB Jacob Rodriguez to the Colts in the second round, Oklahoma edge R Mason Thomas to the Packers at 52, and Auburn edge Keiroon Crawford to the Broncos at 62. He also expects Riley Leonard to open as the Colts' starting QB and Travis Hunter to play cornerback full time in Jacksonville.
- Daniel JeremiahMock Draft Picks · Carnell TateHit · 92Jeremiah says Denver, not Kansas City, will be the clear favorite in the AFC West this season; he also puts Carnell Tate sixth and Monroe Freeling twentieth on his prospect board, mocks Tate to Cleveland at No. 6, and expects Georgia receiver Branch to be a Day 2 pick after a strong pro day.
- Jeff CavanaughMock Draft Picks · Lorenzo StylesMiss · 1Streaming from the NFL Combine, Jeff pegged safety Dylan Thienemann's draft range at roughly picks 20-35, said LSU safety AJ Halsey would cost a second- or third-round pick, and insisted Sonny Styles' brother would not be a top-50 selection despite a fast 40.