Matt Verderame· Sep 9, 2026
Verderame's Week 1 straight-up picks for all 16 games.
published in writing · Sports Illustrated · read the original →
16 checkable claims — 16 game outcome picks — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.
It names 16 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
All 16 have settled, averaging 62.5 out of 100, against 62.5 for a naive guess at the same calls.
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Who this take is about
The games in this take
- Patriots at Seahawks 33 calls
- 49ers at Rams 37 calls
- Ravens at Colts 24 calls
- Browns at Jaguars 26 calls
- Falcons at Steelers 34 calls
- Jets at Titans 25 calls
- Saints at Lions 22 calls
- Buccaneers at Bengals 31 calls
- Bears at Panthers 28 calls
- Bills at Texans 46 calls
- Cardinals at Chargers 23 calls
- Commanders at Eagles 31 calls
- Packers at Vikings 41 calls
- Dolphins at Raiders 34 calls
- Cowboys at Giants 42 calls
- Broncos at Chiefs 45 calls
16 checkable claims in this take
Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.
- Game Outcome PicksKansas City ChiefsSep 9, 2026
Kansas City Chiefs to win
“Broncos at Chiefs — Matt Verderame: Chiefs”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skillHow this was scored
- won:
- KC
- score:
- 10-31
- skill:
- 0
- they picked:
- KC
- season:
- 2026
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive pick:
- KC
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- Game Outcome PicksBaltimore RavensSep 9, 2026
Baltimore Ravens to win
“Ravens at Colts — Matt Verderame: Ravens”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+200 skillHow this was scored
- won:
- BAL
- score:
- 41-23
- skill:
- 200
- they picked:
- BAL
- season:
- 2026
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- the naive pick:
- IND
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- Game Outcome PicksPittsburgh SteelersSep 9, 2026
Pittsburgh Steelers to win
“Falcons at Steelers — Matt Verderame: Steelers”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skillHow this was scored
- won:
- PIT
- score:
- 13-20
- skill:
- 0
- they picked:
- PIT
- season:
- 2026
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive pick:
- PIT
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- Game Outcome PicksHouston TexansSep 9, 2026
Houston Texans to win
“Bills at Texans — Matt Verderame: Texans”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skillHow this was scored
- won:
- BUF
- score:
- 36-31
- skill:
- 0
- they picked:
- HOU
- season:
- 2026
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- the naive pick:
- HOU
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- Game Outcome PicksPhiladelphia EaglesSep 9, 2026
Philadelphia Eagles to win
“Commanders at Eagles — Matt Verderame: Eagles”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skillHow this was scored
- won:
- PHI
- score:
- 22-24
- skill:
- 0
- they picked:
- PHI
- season:
- 2026
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive pick:
- PHI
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- Game Outcome PicksGreen Bay PackersSep 9, 2026
Green Bay Packers to win
“Packers at Vikings — Matt Verderame: Packers”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-200 skillHow this was scored
- won:
- MIN
- score:
- 22-39
- skill:
- -200
- they picked:
- GB
- season:
- 2026
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive pick:
- MIN
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- Game Outcome PicksDetroit LionsSep 9, 2026
Detroit Lions to win
“Saints at Lions — Matt Verderame: Lions”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skillHow this was scored
- won:
- DET
- score:
- 30-31
- skill:
- 0
- they picked:
- DET
- season:
- 2026
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive pick:
- DET
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- Game Outcome PicksLos Angeles ChargersSep 9, 2026
Los Angeles Chargers to win
“Cardinals at Chargers — Matt Verderame: Chargers”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skillHow this was scored
- won:
- ARI
- score:
- 26-14
- skill:
- 0
- they picked:
- LAC
- season:
- 2026
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- the naive pick:
- LAC
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- Game Outcome PicksLas Vegas RaidersSep 9, 2026
Las Vegas Raiders to win
“Dolphins at Raiders — Matt Verderame: Raiders”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skillHow this was scored
- won:
- LV
- score:
- 13-27
- skill:
- 0
- they picked:
- LV
- season:
- 2026
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive pick:
- LV
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- Game Outcome PicksTennessee TitansSep 9, 2026
Tennessee Titans to win
“Jets at Titans — Matt Verderame: Titans”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skillHow this was scored
- won:
- NYJ
- score:
- 23-10
- skill:
- 0
- they picked:
- TEN
- season:
- 2026
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- the naive pick:
- TEN
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- Game Outcome PicksDallas CowboysSep 9, 2026
Dallas Cowboys to win
“Cowboys at Giants — Matt Verderame: Cowboys”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-200 skillHow this was scored
- won:
- NYG
- score:
- 20-28
- skill:
- -200
- they picked:
- DAL
- season:
- 2026
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive pick:
- NYG
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- Game Outcome PicksCincinnati BengalsSep 9, 2026
Cincinnati Bengals to win
“Buccaneers at Bengals — Matt Verderame: Bengals”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skillHow this was scored
- won:
- CIN
- score:
- 27-33
- skill:
- 0
- they picked:
- CIN
- season:
- 2026
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive pick:
- CIN
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- Game Outcome PicksJacksonville JaguarsSep 9, 2026
Jacksonville Jaguars to win
“Browns at Jaguars — Matt Verderame: Jaguars”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skillHow this was scored
- won:
- JAX
- score:
- 10-34
- skill:
- 0
- they picked:
- JAX
- season:
- 2026
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive pick:
- JAX
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- Game Outcome PicksChicago BearsSep 9, 2026
Chicago Bears to win
“Bears at Panthers — Matt Verderame: Bears”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+200 skillHow this was scored
- won:
- CHI
- score:
- 59-37
- skill:
- 200
- they picked:
- CHI
- season:
- 2026
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- the naive pick:
- CAR
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- Game Outcome PicksLos Angeles RamsSep 9, 2026
Los Angeles Rams to win
“49ers vs. Rams — Matt Verderame: Rams”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skillHow this was scored
- won:
- SF
- score:
- 27-7
- skill:
- 0
- they picked:
- LAR
- season:
- 2026
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- the naive pick:
- LAR
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- Game Outcome PicksSeattle SeahawksSep 9, 2026
Seattle Seahawks to win
“Patriots at Seahawks — Matt Verderame: Seahawks”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skillHow this was scored
- won:
- SEA
- score:
- 10-13
- skill:
- 0
- they picked:
- SEA
- season:
- 2026
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive pick:
- SEA
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
What others said about the same people
- Tyler SullivanDepth Chart Calls · Drew LockMiss · 0In an unsigned Week 2 odds roundup, the piece states that with Sam Darnold hurt, Drew Lock will likely start at quarterback for Seattle against Arizona.
- Mike MoraitisTrade and Signing Calls · DaRon BlandHit · 100Moraitis names five Cowboys he expects to be playing their final season opener in Dallas in 2026: George Pickens (likely tag-and-trade or departure), Malik Hooker, Luke Schoonmaker, DeMarvion Overshown and DaRon Bland.
- John ShipleyRoster Spot Calls · Jack KiserMiss · 0Shipley projects a full 16-player (plus one international/exemption spot) Jaguars practice squad for 2026, naming specific players at each position he expects to land there.
- Emmett MatasovskyDepth Chart Calls · Christian IzienMiss · 0Matasovsky says Dobbs is currently leading the backup quarterback race and suggests Christian Izien may be pressed into a starting safety role in Week 1 while Brian Branch and Kerby Joseph rehab.
- Jared DubinDepth Chart Calls · Daniel FaaleleMiss · 0Dubin grades the Faalele trade, predicting Faalele has a decent chance to be Jacksonville's Week 1 starting right guard in competition with Wyatt Milum, and that Evan Neal's odds of making the Giants' 53-man roster improved while Jon Runyan and Francis Mauigoa hold the Giants' starting guard jobs.
- Mike MoraitisDepth Chart Calls · Ozzy TrapiloMiss · 0Moraitis writes that although Braxton Jones has looked like the favorite, Ozzy Trapilo is likely to take over as the Bears' starting left tackle once he's healthy enough to play.
More game outcome picks
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
- Danny ParkinsGame Outcome Picks · Denver BroncosMiss · 0Parkins picked the Giants to upset Dallas, the Steelers to beat Atlanta by two scores, the Bears to beat Carolina, the Bills to beat Houston and Denver to beat Kansas City outright; he also said Justin Herbert will win an MVP and had the Bengals as AFC North champs.
- Eric ManginiGame Outcome Picks · Denver BroncosMiss · 0Mangini's upset alert was Washington over Philadelphia; in the chips segment he backed Houston, Dallas and Denver; and his Monday headline was Cincinnati mauling Tampa Bay, with Joe Burrow as his MVP and the Bengals as AFC North champs.
- Shannon SharpeGame Outcome Picks · Denver BroncosMiss · 0Sharpe predicted Matthew Stafford would throw four touchdowns in the Thursday night game against the 49ers, picked Tampa Bay to beat Cincinnati at home, took the Broncos over Kansas City on Monday night with Bonitto getting 2.5 sacks, and expects big fantasy value from kicker Brandon Aubrey.
- Tyler SullivanGame Outcome Picks · Denver BroncosMiss · 0An unsigned CBS Sports piece flags five Week 1 underdogs as upset candidates: the 49ers over the Rams in Melbourne, the Texans over the Bills, the Panthers over the Bears, the Jets over the Titans, and the Broncos over the Chiefs on Monday night.
- Mitch GoldichGame Outcome Picks · Denver BroncosMiss · 0Goldich's Week 1 straight-up picks for all 16 games.
- Conor OrrGame Outcome Picks · Denver BroncosMiss · 0Orr's Week 1 straight-up picks, including several upsets (Patriots, Buccaneers, Browns, Dolphins, Commanders, Broncos).