Conor Orr· Sep 9, 2026
Orr's Week 1 straight-up picks, including several upsets (Patriots, Buccaneers, Browns, Dolphins, Commanders, Broncos).
“He is also the only person taking the Patriots on the road this week.”
published in writing · Sports Illustrated · read the original →
16 checkable claims — 16 game outcome picks — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.
It names 16 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
All 16 have settled, averaging 31.3 out of 100, against 62.5 for a naive guess at the same calls.
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Who this take is about
The games in this take
- Patriots at Seahawks 33 calls
- 49ers at Rams 37 calls
- Ravens at Colts 24 calls
- Browns at Jaguars 26 calls
- Falcons at Steelers 34 calls
- Jets at Titans 25 calls
- Saints at Lions 22 calls
- Buccaneers at Bengals 31 calls
- Bears at Panthers 28 calls
- Bills at Texans 46 calls
- Cardinals at Chargers 23 calls
- Commanders at Eagles 31 calls
- Packers at Vikings 41 calls
- Dolphins at Raiders 34 calls
- Cowboys at Giants 42 calls
- Broncos at Chiefs 45 calls
16 checkable claims in this take
Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.
- Game Outcome PicksDenver BroncosSep 9, 2026
Denver Broncos to win
“Broncos at Chiefs — Conor Orr: Broncos”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-200 skillHow this was scored
- won:
- KC
- score:
- 10-31
- skill:
- -200
- they picked:
- DEN
- season:
- 2026
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive pick:
- KC
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- Game Outcome PicksTampa Bay BuccaneersSep 9, 2026
Tampa Bay Buccaneers to win
“Buccaneers at Bengals — Conor Orr: Buccaneers”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-200 skillHow this was scored
- won:
- CIN
- score:
- 27-33
- skill:
- -200
- they picked:
- TB
- season:
- 2026
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive pick:
- CIN
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- Game Outcome PicksNew York JetsSep 9, 2026
New York Jets to win
“Jets at Titans — Conor Orr: Jets”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+200 skillHow this was scored
- won:
- NYJ
- score:
- 23-10
- skill:
- 200
- they picked:
- NYJ
- season:
- 2026
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- the naive pick:
- TEN
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- Game Outcome PicksBaltimore RavensSep 9, 2026
Baltimore Ravens to win
“Ravens at Colts — Conor Orr: Ravens”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+200 skillHow this was scored
- won:
- BAL
- score:
- 41-23
- skill:
- 200
- they picked:
- BAL
- season:
- 2026
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- the naive pick:
- IND
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- Game Outcome PicksChicago BearsSep 9, 2026
Chicago Bears to win
“Bears at Panthers — Conor Orr: Bears”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+200 skillHow this was scored
- won:
- CHI
- score:
- 59-37
- skill:
- 200
- they picked:
- CHI
- season:
- 2026
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- the naive pick:
- CAR
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- Game Outcome PicksCleveland BrownsSep 9, 2026
Cleveland Browns to win
“Browns at Jaguars — Conor Orr: Browns”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-200 skillHow this was scored
- won:
- JAX
- score:
- 10-34
- skill:
- -200
- they picked:
- CLE
- season:
- 2026
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive pick:
- JAX
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- Game Outcome PicksGreen Bay PackersSep 9, 2026
Green Bay Packers to win
“Packers at Vikings — Conor Orr: Packers”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-200 skillHow this was scored
- won:
- MIN
- score:
- 22-39
- skill:
- -200
- they picked:
- GB
- season:
- 2026
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive pick:
- MIN
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- Game Outcome PicksWashington CommandersSep 9, 2026
Washington Commanders to win
“Commanders at Eagles — Conor Orr: Commanders”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-200 skillHow this was scored
- won:
- PHI
- score:
- 22-24
- skill:
- -200
- they picked:
- WAS
- season:
- 2026
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive pick:
- PHI
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- Game Outcome PicksMiami DolphinsSep 9, 2026
Miami Dolphins to win
“Dolphins at Raiders — Conor Orr: Dolphins”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-200 skillHow this was scored
- won:
- LV
- score:
- 13-27
- skill:
- -200
- they picked:
- MIA
- season:
- 2026
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive pick:
- LV
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- Game Outcome PicksHouston TexansSep 9, 2026
Houston Texans to win
“Bills at Texans — Conor Orr: Texans”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skillHow this was scored
- won:
- BUF
- score:
- 36-31
- skill:
- 0
- they picked:
- HOU
- season:
- 2026
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- the naive pick:
- HOU
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- Game Outcome PicksDetroit LionsSep 9, 2026
Detroit Lions to win
“Saints at Lions — Conor Orr: Lions”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skillHow this was scored
- won:
- DET
- score:
- 30-31
- skill:
- 0
- they picked:
- DET
- season:
- 2026
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive pick:
- DET
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- Game Outcome PicksLos Angeles ChargersSep 9, 2026
Los Angeles Chargers to win
“Cardinals at Chargers — Conor Orr: Chargers”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skillHow this was scored
- won:
- ARI
- score:
- 26-14
- skill:
- 0
- they picked:
- LAC
- season:
- 2026
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- the naive pick:
- LAC
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- Game Outcome PicksDallas CowboysSep 9, 2026
Dallas Cowboys to win
“Cowboys at Giants — Conor Orr: Cowboys”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-200 skillHow this was scored
- won:
- NYG
- score:
- 20-28
- skill:
- -200
- they picked:
- DAL
- season:
- 2026
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive pick:
- NYG
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- Game Outcome PicksPittsburgh SteelersSep 9, 2026
Pittsburgh Steelers to win
“Falcons at Steelers — Conor Orr: Steelers”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skillHow this was scored
- won:
- PIT
- score:
- 13-20
- skill:
- 0
- they picked:
- PIT
- season:
- 2026
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive pick:
- PIT
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- Game Outcome PicksLos Angeles RamsSep 9, 2026
Los Angeles Rams to win
“49ers vs. Rams — Conor Orr: Rams”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skillHow this was scored
- won:
- SF
- score:
- 27-7
- skill:
- 0
- they picked:
- LAR
- season:
- 2026
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- the naive pick:
- LAR
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- Game Outcome PicksNew England PatriotsSep 9, 2026
New England Patriots to win
“Patriots at Seahawks — Conor Orr: Patriots”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-200 skillHow this was scored
- won:
- SEA
- score:
- 10-13
- skill:
- -200
- they picked:
- NE
- season:
- 2026
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive pick:
- SEA
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
What others said about the same people
- Chris BrockmanTrade and Signing Calls · Baker MayfieldHit · 100Brockman's season-preview overreactions: Fernando Mendoza becomes an Offensive Rookie of the Year finalist; Dak Prescott wins MVP and the Cowboys win the Super Bowl; Jesse Minter's Ravens win the AFC North; C.J. Stroud leads Houston to the AFC's No. 1 seed; Jonathan Taylor approaches 2,000 rushing yards; Baker Mayfield wins the NFC South, goes 12-5 and reaches the NFC title game while landing a $60 million-per-year deal; and Aaron Rodgers throws 35-plus touchdowns as the Steelers go 11-6 and win the North.
- Mike MoraitisTrade and Signing Calls · DaRon BlandHit · 100Moraitis names five Cowboys he expects to be playing their final season opener in Dallas in 2026: George Pickens (likely tag-and-trade or departure), Malik Hooker, Luke Schoonmaker, DeMarvion Overshown and DaRon Bland.
- Jon GrudenTrade and Signing Calls · Baker MayfieldHit · 100The former Buccaneers head coach predicted that Tampa Bay and Baker Mayfield are closer on a new contract than believed and that an extension will get done.
- Joel CorryTrade and Signing Calls · Baker MayfieldHit · 100The unsigned CBS Sports analysis lays out the contract it believes Tampa Bay will have to give Mayfield at minimum: a two-year extension averaging $50 million per year with $110 million in guarantees and a no-trade clause.
- Mike FlorioDepth Chart Calls · Shedeur SandersMiss · 0Florio reports the Browns will start Deshaun Watson in Week 1 but predicts Shedeur Sanders will likely be the starting quarterback by Week 3.
- Nathan JahnkeDepth Chart Calls · Jalen TolbertMiss · 0PFF's preseason fantasy recap makes a large number of depth-chart, role and fantasy-value calls across the league, including Chig Okonkwo as a top sleeper tight end, Tre Tucker as the Raiders' top receiver, and various backfield hierarchies.
More game outcome picks
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
- John PluymGame Outcome Picks · Kansas City ChiefsHit · 100Pluym's Week 1 straight-up picks for all 16 games.
- Matt VerderameGame Outcome Picks · Kansas City ChiefsHit · 100Verderame's Week 1 straight-up picks for all 16 games.
- Mike KadlickGame Outcome Picks · Kansas City ChiefsHit · 100Kadlick's Week 1 straight-up picks for all 16 games.
- Nick WrightGame Outcome Picks · Kansas City ChiefsHit · 100Nick Wright lays out his 2026 season picks: all eight division winners, the Ravens as the AFC's No. 1 seed with 13 wins and a 6-0 start, Chiefs and Eagles in the Super Bowl with Kansas City winning, plus value picks on the Seahawks and Eagles to win the NFC.
- Richard ShermanGame Outcome Picks · Kansas City ChiefsHit · 100Sherman previewed the AFC, picking the Bills, Chiefs, Ravens and Texans as division winners with Denver, New England and Jacksonville as wild cards, called several individual early-season games, and predicted a big year for Travis Hunter at cornerback.
- Nick WrightGame Outcome Picks · Kansas City ChiefsHit · 100Nick Wright locked in his preseason picks: the Ravens as the AFC's No. 1 seed with 13 wins, eight division winners, Eagles/Broncos/Chiefs to make the playoffs, Eagles and Seahawks to come out of the NFC, and a Chiefs win over the Eagles in the Super Bowl.