Nick Baumgardner · Mar 31, 2025

The Athletic's draft analyst laid out a full slate of expectations for the upcoming NFL Draft: Abdul Carter to Tennessee at No. 1, Shedeur Sanders falling to the back half of the first or top of the second, Ashton Jeanty as a top-10 pick, Travis Hunter as the class's best player going in the top five, and only two quarterbacks plus fewer than three running backs but more than three receivers taken in Round 1.

“My gut there says Abdul Carter, at one for Tennessee.”

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9 checkable claims from this

Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.

Mock Draft Picks Abdul Carter Tennessee TitansMar 31, 2025
Abdul Carter to be picked at number 1
“my gut there says Abdul Carter, at one for Tennessee, but, it wouldn't shock me if if they go quarterback.”
Hit · 92Scored 91.7a naive guess scored 50
How this was scored
draft:
2025
naive:
a shuffled mock scores 50
player:
Abdul Carter
season:
2025
zero at:
32
accuracy:
91.7
baseline:
50
actual pick:
3
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
pick accuracy:
91.7
predicted pick:
1
weeks left when called:
0
mock ordering score:
only one pick — no order to score
Think this is wrong?
Mock Draft Picks Travis HunterMar 31, 2025
Travis Hunter to be picked “top five” (picks 1–5)
“but, like, top five steal for this guy because he's he's probably the best player in the draft”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 50
How this was scored
draft:
2025
naive:
a shuffled mock scores 50
player:
Travis Hunter
season:
2025
zero at:
32
accuracy:
100
baseline:
50
actual pick:
2
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
pick accuracy:
100
predicted pick:
top five (picks 1–5)
weeks left when called:
0
mock ordering score:
only one pick — no order to score
Think this is wrong?
Mock Draft Picks Ashton JeantyMar 31, 2025
Ashton Jeanty to be picked “top 10 pick” (picks 1–10)
“I think Genti is definitely a top 10 pick in this draft.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 50
How this was scored
draft:
2025
naive:
a shuffled mock scores 50
player:
Ashton Jeanty
season:
2025
zero at:
32
accuracy:
100
baseline:
50
actual pick:
6
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
pick accuracy:
100
predicted pick:
top 10 pick (picks 1–10)
weeks left when called:
0
mock ordering score:
only one pick — no order to score
Think this is wrong?
Mock Draft Picks Shedeur SandersMar 31, 2025
Shedeur Sanders to be picked “back half of the first round, top of the second round” (picks 1–32)
“To me, he's a back half of the first round, top of the second round, player.”
Miss · 1Scored 0.78a naive guess scored 50
How this was scored
draft:
2025
naive:
a shuffled mock scores 50
player:
Shedeur Sanders
season:
2025
zero at:
32
accuracy:
0.78
baseline:
50
actual pick:
144
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
pick accuracy:
0.78
predicted pick:
back half of the first round, top of the second round (picks 1–32)
weeks left when called:
0
mock ordering score:
only one pick — no order to score
Think this is wrong?
Mock Draft Picks Omarion HamptonMar 31, 2025
Omarion Hampton to be picked “first round” (picks 1–32)
“I think Omarian Hampton from Carolina probably sneaks into the first round.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 50
How this was scored
draft:
2025
naive:
a shuffled mock scores 50
player:
Omarion Hampton
season:
2025
zero at:
32
accuracy:
100
baseline:
50
actual pick:
22
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
pick accuracy:
100
predicted pick:
first round (picks 1–32)
weeks left when called:
0
mock ordering score:
only one pick — no order to score
Think this is wrong?
Position Order Calls Jalen MilroeMar 31, 2025
Jalen Milroe to be 3rd quarterback off the board
“jump in there maybe at the bottom of the first or is or at least still be QB three, you know, that comes off the board after Choudhury”
Close · 71Scored 70.71a naive guess scored 35+35.71 skill
How this was scored
draft:
2025
naive:
naming one of the 14 at random averages 35
skill:
35.71
player:
Jalen Milroe
season:
2025
zero at:
credit halves every two places
accuracy:
70.71
baseline:
35
position:
quarterback
class size:
14
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
actual order:
4
predicted order:
3
weeks left when called:
0
Think this is wrong?
Mock Draft Picks Tetairoa McMillan Arizona CardinalsMar 31, 2025
Tetairoa McMillan to be picked “top 10 pick” (picks 1–10)
“I think he's absolutely a top 10 pick still or at least a top 10 player in this class, and I wouldn't be surprised if he was in the top 10.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 50
How this was scored
draft:
2025
naive:
a shuffled mock scores 50
player:
Tetairoa McMillan
season:
2025
zero at:
32
accuracy:
100
baseline:
50
actual pick:
8
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
pick accuracy:
100
predicted pick:
top 10 pick (picks 1–10)
weeks left when called:
0
mock ordering score:
only one pick — no order to score
Think this is wrong?
Mock Draft Picks Quinshon JudkinsMar 31, 2025
Quinshon Judkins to be picked “day two”
“Judkins and Trevion Henderson, I think, are day two guys.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the season it describes has finished.
Think this is wrong?
Mock Draft Picks TreVeyon HendersonMar 31, 2025
TreVeyon Henderson to be picked “day two”
“Judkins and Trevion Henderson, I think, are day two guys.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the season it describes has finished.
Think this is wrong?