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Ross Jackson· Feb 27, 2026

Previewing the NFL Combine's defensive back and tight end workouts, Jackson projected draft ranges for several prospects — Caleb Downs as a top-10 (and deserving top-five) pick, Dylan Thieneman early Day 2, Mansoor Delane inside the top 15 and as the first cornerback off the board, and Colton Hood in the second round. He also said undersized Indiana corner D'Angelo Ponds could run in the 4.2s and become the first small corner in 20 years taken in the top 100.

“Caleb Downs is probably a top 10 pick, period. Should be a top five pick.”

said on air, transcribed by us · Locked On Saints (podcast) · read the original →

7 checkable claims — 5 mock draft picks, 1 combine measurement and 1 position order call — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.

It names 5 players and teams, each linked to their own record.

5 of 7 have settled so far, averaging 99.2 out of 100, against 42.5 for a naive guess at the same calls.

Their call against what happened

positional finish
1They said
1What happened

Their call against what actually happened.

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Who this take is about

7 checkable claims in this take

Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.

  • Position Order CallsMansoor DelaneFeb 27, 2026

    Mansoor Delane to be 1st corner off the board

    “Should be the first corner off the board.”

    Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 12.64+87.36 skill
    How this was scored
    draft:
    2026
    naive:
    naming one of the 27 at random averages 12.64
    skill:
    87.36
    player:
    Mansoor Delane
    season:
    2025
    zero at:
    credit halves every two places
    accuracy:
    100
    baseline:
    12.64
    position:
    corner
    class size:
    27
    difficulty:
    1
    weeks in the season:
    18
    actual order:
    1
    predicted order:
    1
    weeks left when called:
    0

    Think this is wrong?

  • Mock Draft PicksColton HoodFeb 27, 2026

    Colton Hood to be picked “a second round pick” (picks 33–64)

    “Colton Hood, probably a second round pick.”

    Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 50
    How this was scored
    draft:
    2026
    naive:
    a shuffled mock scores 50
    player:
    Colton Hood
    season:
    2025
    zero at:
    32
    accuracy:
    100
    baseline:
    50
    actual pick:
    37
    difficulty:
    1
    weeks in the season:
    18
    pick accuracy:
    100
    predicted pick:
    a second round pick (picks 33–64)
    weeks left when called:
    0
    mock ordering score:
    only one pick — no order to score

    Think this is wrong?

  • Mock Draft PicksCaleb DownsFeb 27, 2026

    Caleb Downs to be picked “top 10 pick” (picks 1–10)

    “Caleb Downs is probably a top 10 pick, period. Should be a top five pick.”

    Hit · 96Scored 95.76a naive guess scored 50
    How this was scored
    draft:
    2026
    naive:
    a shuffled mock scores 50
    player:
    Caleb Downs
    season:
    2025
    zero at:
    32
    accuracy:
    95.76
    baseline:
    50
    actual pick:
    11
    difficulty:
    1
    weeks in the season:
    18
    pick accuracy:
    95.76
    predicted pick:
    top 10 pick (picks 1–10)
    weeks left when called:
    0
    mock ordering score:
    only one pick — no order to score

    Think this is wrong?

  • Mock Draft PicksMansoor DelaneFeb 27, 2026

    Mansoor Delane to be picked “top 15 pick” (picks 1–15)

    “Mansoor Delane's probably a top 15 pick.”

    Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 50
    How this was scored
    draft:
    2026
    naive:
    a shuffled mock scores 50
    player:
    Mansoor Delane
    season:
    2025
    zero at:
    32
    accuracy:
    100
    baseline:
    50
    actual pick:
    6
    difficulty:
    1
    weeks in the season:
    18
    pick accuracy:
    100
    predicted pick:
    top 15 pick (picks 1–15)
    weeks left when called:
    0
    mock ordering score:
    only one pick — no order to score

    Think this is wrong?

  • Mock Draft PicksD'Angelo PondsFeb 27, 2026

    D'Angelo Ponds to be picked “selected in the top 100” (picks 1–100)

    “if D'Angelo Ponds does one thing in this draft, he could become the first corner in twenty years with his measurable selected in the top 100”

    Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 50
    How this was scored
    draft:
    2026
    naive:
    a shuffled mock scores 50
    player:
    D'Angelo Ponds
    season:
    2025
    zero at:
    32
    accuracy:
    100
    baseline:
    50
    actual pick:
    50
    difficulty:
    1
    weeks in the season:
    18
    pick accuracy:
    100
    predicted pick:
    selected in the top 100 (picks 1–100)
    weeks left when called:
    0
    mock ordering score:
    only one pick — no order to score

    Think this is wrong?

  • Mock Draft PicksDillon ThienemanFeb 27, 2026

    Dillon Thieneman to be picked “a day two early day two pick”

    “Dylan Thineman's probably a a day two early day two pick, period.”

    Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.

    Think this is wrong?

  • Combine MeasurementsD'Angelo PondsFeb 27, 2026

    D'Angelo Ponds to post potential to run four three, and some people think he might run in the four twos at the combine

    “watch that 40 yard dash because he's got the potential to run four three, and some people think he might run-in the four twos”

    Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.

    Think this is wrong?

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