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Anthony Gargano· Feb 28, 2026

Gargano expects Fernando Mendoza to be the No. 1 overall pick to the Raiders, sees Kenyon Sadiq as a top-15 tight end pick (his own guess around 14-15, and no later than Carolina at 19), and rolls through a mock draft placing several prospects. He also thinks Ty Simpson is the second QB off the board and only one QB goes in the first round.

“So you got Mendoza's slated to go one.”

said on air or in an interview · Fox Sports Radio (podcast) · read the original →

4 checkable claims — 3 mock draft picks and 1 position order call — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.

It names 5 players and teams, each linked to their own record.

3 of 4 have settled so far, averaging 98.6 out of 100, against 46.6 for a naive guess at the same calls.

Their call against what happened

overall pick
1They said
1What happened

Their call against what actually happened.

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Who this take is about

4 checkable claims in this take

Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.

  • Mock Draft PicksFernando MendozaLas Vegas RaidersFeb 28, 2026

    Fernando Mendoza to be picked at number 1

    “So, Raiders, obviously mendoza. That's done”

    Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 50
    How this was scored
    draft:
    2026
    naive:
    a shuffled mock scores 50
    player:
    Fernando Mendoza
    season:
    2025
    zero at:
    32
    accuracy:
    100
    baseline:
    50
    actual pick:
    1
    difficulty:
    1
    weeks in the season:
    18
    pick accuracy:
    100
    predicted pick:
    1
    weeks left when called:
    0
    mock ordering score:
    only one pick — no order to score

    Think this is wrong?

  • Mock Draft PicksKenyon SadiqFeb 28, 2026

    Kenyon Sadiq to be picked “top fifteen” (picks 1–15)

    “My guess is he again? I think top fifteen for sure... because I have him around fourteen to fifteen”

    Hit · 96Scored 95.76a naive guess scored 50
    How this was scored
    draft:
    2026
    naive:
    a shuffled mock scores 50
    player:
    Kenyon Sadiq
    season:
    2025
    zero at:
    32
    accuracy:
    95.76
    baseline:
    50
    actual pick:
    16
    difficulty:
    1
    weeks in the season:
    18
    pick accuracy:
    95.76
    predicted pick:
    top fifteen (picks 1–15)
    weeks left when called:
    0
    mock ordering score:
    only one pick — no order to score

    Think this is wrong?

  • Position Order CallsTy SimpsonFeb 28, 2026

    Ty Simpson to be 2nd quarterback off the board

    “but is Ty Simpson the second quarterback off the board?”

    Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 39.7+60.3 skill
    How this was scored
    draft:
    2026
    naive:
    naming one of the 10 at random averages 39.7
    skill:
    60.3
    player:
    Ty Simpson
    season:
    2025
    zero at:
    credit halves every two places
    accuracy:
    100
    baseline:
    39.7
    position:
    quarterback
    class size:
    10
    difficulty:
    1
    weeks in the season:
    18
    actual order:
    2
    predicted order:
    2
    weeks left when called:
    0

    Think this is wrong?

  • Mock Draft PicksKenyon SadiqCarolina PanthersFeb 28, 2026

    Kenyon Sadiq to be picked “there's no way he gets past nineteen”

    “So carolina would be the back End For SADIQ”

    Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.

    Think this is wrong?

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