Derek Brown

Derek Brown — known around FantasyPros as "DBro" — is a senior fantasy football and NFL analyst for the site, where he writes analysis columns like "The Primer" and co-hosts shows including Sweating Sundays. His work centers on the practical decisions fantasy managers face: rankings, start/sit calls, and detailed player breakdowns. He's also appeared on The Herd with Colin Cowherd. The predictions we've tracked cover the full spectrum of fantasy prep — sleepers and busts, positional finishes, draft rankings, and season stat projections — across teams from the Packers to the Panthers to the Dolphins.

Writes at FantasyPros

Every take from Derek Brown, including the ones still waiting →

Is Derek Brown accurate? Across 114 graded calls in 11 articles, Derek Brown scores 62.71% accuracy and a MissedTakes Score of 35.62, which means their calls were better than a naive guess on the same claims. That is a limited sample, under thirty graded articles, so treat it with caution.

62.71%

Accuracy

How often they were right.

35.62

MissedTakes Score

Versus a naive guess. 0 means no better.

114

Graded calls

across 11 articles. 522 more not yet settled.

A limited sample — under 30 graded articles.

100% of their claims were specific enough to check. Most of what they said committed to something.

Every number here is computed from the published methodology, and every call below shows its own arithmetic.

Graded calls · 114

3 of 11 graded articles on this page, newest first — page 4 of 4.

Brown names Ricky Pearsall a second-year wide receiver breakout he wants everywhere, prefers him to Stefon Diggs, calls Kaleb Johnson a top-24 running back who can win leagues, and says JJ McCarthy will be a QB1 in 2025.5 graded calls · Jun 29, 2025
- Kaleb Johnson to finish top 24 at his position, by fantasy points
  “he should be a top twenty four running back”
  Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skill
  How this was scored
  skill:
  0
  player:
  Kaleb Johnson
  season:
  2025
  zero at:
  12
  accuracy:
  0
  baseline:
  0
  position:
  RB
  ranked by:
  fantasy points
  difficulty:

Brown is scared of the projections on Chase Brown (RB17), Tyreek Hill (WR14/15), Kyren Williams (RB1 range) and Xavier Worthy (WR20 in PPR), calling each likely to fall short of their draft price; he sits in line with the QB20 projection on Drake May but thinks the rushing touchdown total is light.5 graded calls · Jun 14, 2025

Xavier Worthy to fall short of his draft cost (the wide receiver twenty)
“If he goes back into that role and Mahomes is still one of the worst deep all passes in the NFL, he's not going to come close to paying all this projection, not even close”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+200 skill
How this was scored
call:
bust
cost:
the wide receiver twenty
naive:
he repeats last season
skill:
200
player:
Xavier Worthy
season:
2025
correct:
yes
accuracy:
100
baseline:
0
position:
WR
had to beat:
WR32
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
actual finish:
WR59
weeks left when called:
18
measured against:
the source named no cost — measured against his own 2024 finish
Think this grade is wrong?
Chase Brown to fall short of his draft cost (twelve RB overall)
“if that's where he goes he's gonna be a big bust this coming year because people are expecting RB one production if they are rafting Chase Brown.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-200 skill
How this was scored
call:
bust
cost:
twelve RB overall
naive:
he repeats last season
skill:
-200
player:
Chase Brown
season:
2025
correct:
no
accuracy:
0
baseline:
100
position:
RB
had to beat:
RB12
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
actual finish:
RB10
weeks left when called:
18
Tyreek Hill to fall short of his draft cost (wide receiver fifteen and ADP)
“So this projection and where we are where the consensus is on Tyrek Hill scares the Bejesus out of me because I can't see him paying all on this.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+200 skill
How this was scored
call:
bust
cost:
wide receiver fifteen and ADP
naive:
he repeats last season
skill:
200
player:
Tyreek Hill
season:
2025
correct:
yes
accuracy:
100
baseline:
0
position:
WR
had to beat:
WR23
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
actual finish:
WR107
weeks left when called:
Kyren Williams to fall short of his draft cost (ranking him as an RB one)
“So I was in on Kiren last year, but I am out this year... people are drafting him as an RB one, he easily could be an RB two in this offense”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+200 skill
How this was scored
call:
bust
cost:
ranking him as an RB one
naive:
he repeats last season
skill:
200
player:
Kyren Williams
season:
2025
correct:
yes
accuracy:
100
baseline:
0
position:
RB
had to beat:
RB6
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
actual finish:
RB8
weeks left when called:
Drake Maye to finish top 20 at his position, by fantasy points
“I'm actually in line with these projections, Like right now, I've got Drake May as my QB twenty I think”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skill
How this was scored
skill:
0
player:
Drake Maye
season:
2025
zero at:
12
accuracy:
0
baseline:
0
position:
QB
ranked by:
fantasy points
difficulty:
2
the naive guess:
where he finished last season
weeks in the season:
18
naive finish:
22
actual finish:
2
weeks left when called:
18
predicted finish:
20

Brown is out on Kyren Williams, Aaron Jones and DeAndre Swift while targeting R.J. Harvey, Trevion Henderson, Kenneth Walker, Bucky Irving, Tony Pollard, Kaleb Johnson, Cam Skattebo, Jarquez Hunter, Rishard Smith, MarShawn Lloyd and Javonte Williams as guys who beat their current cost.14 graded calls · May 31, 2025

D'Andre Swift to fall short of his draft cost
“you want to talk about guys, I'll continue to fade and happily. So DeAndre Swift, come on down”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-200 skill
How this was scored
call:
bust
cost:
none named
naive:
he repeats last season
skill:
-200
player:
D'Andre Swift
season:
2025
correct:
no
accuracy:
0
baseline:
100
position:
RB
had to beat:
RB19
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
actual finish:
RB14
weeks left when called:
18
measured against:
the source named no cost — measured against his own 2024 finish
Think this grade is wrong?
RJ Harvey to outplay his draft cost (RB twenty three)
“I've got RJ. Harvey is locked in top fifteen back this year”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+200 skill
How this was scored
call:
sleeper
cost:
RB twenty three
naive:
a player with no record returns what an unknown at his position is worth
skill:
200
player:
RJ Harvey
season:
2025
correct:
yes
accuracy:
100
baseline:
0
position:
RB
had to beat:
RB24
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
actual finish:
RB22
weeks left when called:
18
Tony Pollard to outplay his draft cost
“out of the veteran guys in this tier, yeah, I think Tony Pollard is definitely a little bit undervalued”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-200 skill
How this was scored
call:
sleeper
cost:
none named
naive:
he repeats last season
skill:
-200
player:
Tony Pollard
season:
2025
correct:
no
accuracy:
0
baseline:
100
position:
RB
had to beat:
RB22
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
actual finish:
RB23
weeks left when called:
18
measured against:
Kaleb Johnson to outplay his draft cost (RB twenty nine)
“Somebody explained to me why Caleb Johnson is not in this tier... he shouldn't be in this tier. He is the clear guy”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-200 skill
How this was scored
call:
sleeper
cost:
RB twenty nine
naive:
a player with no record returns what an unknown at his position is worth
skill:
-200
player:
Kaleb Johnson
season:
2025
correct:
no
accuracy:
0
baseline:
100
position:
RB
had to beat:
RB24
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
actual finish:
RB104
weeks left when called:
TreVeyon Henderson to outplay his draft cost (RB twenty four)
“outside of r J. Harvey, Trevion is gonna be definitely one of my big targets this year”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+200 skill
How this was scored
call:
sleeper
cost:
RB twenty four
naive:
a player with no record returns what an unknown at his position is worth
skill:
200
player:
TreVeyon Henderson
season:
2025
correct:
yes
accuracy:
100
baseline:
0
position:
RB
had to beat:
RB24
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
actual finish:
RB19
weeks left when called:
18
Javonte Williams to outplay his draft cost (RB thirty seven)
“if he looks like the guy from weeks one through eight, Yeah, this is this year's JK. Dobbins... I just bumped him up to RB thirty two”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+200 skill
How this was scored
call:
sleeper
cost:
RB thirty seven
naive:
he repeats last season
skill:
200
player:
Javonte Williams
season:
2025
correct:
yes
accuracy:
100
baseline:
0
position:
RB
had to beat:
RB32
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
actual finish:
RB11
weeks left when called:
18
Brashard Smith to outplay his draft cost (RB ninety one)
“I think Rishard Smith is gonna make noise in this backfield as the new Jerrick McKinnon... He should be inside the top fifty like he is in my ranks”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-200 skill
How this was scored
call:
sleeper
cost:
RB ninety one
naive:
a player with no record returns what an unknown at his position is worth
skill:
-200
player:
Brashard Smith
season:
2025
correct:
no
accuracy:
0
baseline:
100
position:
RB
had to beat:
RB24
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
actual finish:
RB70
weeks left when called:
Bucky Irving to outplay his draft cost
“Bucky Irving's the guy that I want to be above consensus. I have him at RB six”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-200 skill
How this was scored
call:
sleeper
cost:
none named
naive:
he repeats last season
skill:
-200
player:
Bucky Irving
season:
2025
correct:
no
accuracy:
0
baseline:
100
position:
RB
had to beat:
RB14
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
actual finish:
RB36
weeks left when called:
18
measured against:
Cam Skattebo to outplay his draft cost
“I've got Skataboo at RB thirty two... yeah, I want to be above consensus on Skataboo”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-200 skill
How this was scored
call:
sleeper
cost:
none named
naive:
a player with no record returns what an unknown at his position is worth
skill:
-200
player:
Cam Skattebo
season:
2025
correct:
no
accuracy:
0
baseline:
100
position:
RB
had to beat:
RB24
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
actual finish:
RB38
weeks left when called:
18
Kaleb Johnson to be 1st on the depth chart
“going back to Caleb Johnson, he shouldn't be in this tier. He is the clear guy”
Hit · 83Scored 83.33a naive guess scored 91.67-16.67 skill
How this was scored
club:
PIT
skill:
-16.67
player:
Kaleb Johnson
season:
2025
accuracy:
83.33
baseline:
91.67
position:
RB
naive slot:
2
actual slot:
3
difficulty:
2
measured by:
rushing yards
the naive guess:
no prior season — a rookie is assumed to start behind the incumbent
weeks in the season:
18
predicted slot:
1
weeks left when called:
18
Kyren Williams to fall short of his draft cost
“I'm not drafting Kiraen Williams this year... I don't hate the player. I hate the ADP, I hate the rank on him. I have him as a RB two”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+200 skill
How this was scored
call:
bust
cost:
none named
naive:
he repeats last season
skill:
200
player:
Kyren Williams
season:
2025
correct:
yes
accuracy:
100
baseline:
0
position:
RB
had to beat:
RB6
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
actual finish:
RB8
weeks left when called:
18
Aaron Jones to fall short of his draft cost (RB twenty two)
“So Aaron Jones, I can't draft at RB twenty two right now. I just I can't do it.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+200 skill
How this was scored
call:
bust
cost:
RB twenty two
naive:
he repeats last season
skill:
200
player:
Aaron Jones
season:
2025
correct:
yes
accuracy:
100
baseline:
0
position:
RB
had to beat:
RB16
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
actual finish:
RB44
weeks left when called:
18
measured against:
Tony Pollard to be 1st on the depth chart
“I think Tony Pollard is still going to be the quick, clear, workhorse, sixty to sixty five percent snap guy. He's gonna get the red zone touches”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skill
How this was scored
club:
TEN
skill:
0
player:
Tony Pollard
season:
2025
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
position:
RB
naive slot:
1
actual slot:
1
difficulty:
2
measured by:
rushing yards
the naive guess:
where he sat last season
weeks in the season:
18
predicted slot:
1
weeks left when called:
18
Kenneth Walker III to outplay his draft cost
“he is way too low in ranks, man Like. This all leads to I'm gonna be drafting a ton of Kenneth Walker”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+200 skill
How this was scored
call:
sleeper
cost:
none named
naive:
he repeats last season
skill:
200
player:
Kenneth Walker III
season:
2025
correct:
yes
accuracy:
100
baseline:
0
position:
RB
had to beat:
RB29
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
actual finish:
RB21
weeks left when called:
18
measured against:

Derek Brown Predictions: Record, Accuracy, Every Take, page 4 | MissedTakes