Derek Brown· Jun 14, 2025
Brown is scared of the projections on Chase Brown (RB17), Tyreek Hill (WR14/15), Kyren Williams (RB1 range) and Xavier Worthy (WR20 in PPR), calling each likely to fall short of their draft price; he sits in line with the QB20 projection on Drake May but thinks the rushing touchdown total is light.
“if that's where he goes he's gonna be a big bust this coming year because people are expecting RB one production if they are rafting Chase Brown.”
said on air or in an interview · The Herd with Colin Cowherd (podcast) · read the original →
The page this came from has changed since we captured it on Aug 5, 2026. The quote and evidence above are from our capture, not from what the page says today.
5 checkable claims — 4 fantasy bust calls and 1 positional finishe — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.
It names 10 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
All 5 have settled, averaging 60 out of 100, against 20 for a naive guess at the same calls.
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Who this take is about
5 checkable claims in this take
Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.
- Fantasy Bust CallsTyreek HillMiami DolphinsJun 14, 2025
Tyreek Hill to fall short of his draft cost (wide receiver fifteen and ADP)
“So this projection and where we are where the consensus is on Tyrek Hill scares the Bejesus out of me because I can't see him paying all on this.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+200 skillHow this was scored
- call:
- bust
- cost:
- wide receiver fifteen and ADP
- naive:
- he repeats last season
- skill:
- 200
- player:
- Tyreek Hill
- season:
- 2025
- correct:
- yes
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- position:
- WR
- had to beat:
- WR23
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- actual finish:
- WR107
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- measured against:
- the source named no cost — measured against his own 2024 finish
Xavier Worthy to fall short of his draft cost (the wide receiver twenty)
“If he goes back into that role and Mahomes is still one of the worst deep all passes in the NFL, he's not going to come close to paying all this projection, not even close”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+200 skillHow this was scored
- call:
- bust
- cost:
- the wide receiver twenty
- naive:
- he repeats last season
- skill:
- 200
- player:
- Xavier Worthy
- season:
- 2025
- correct:
- yes
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- position:
- WR
- had to beat:
- WR32
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- actual finish:
- WR59
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- measured against:
- the source named no cost — measured against his own 2024 finish
- Fantasy Bust CallsChase BrownCincinnati BengalsJun 14, 2025
Chase Brown to fall short of his draft cost (twelve RB overall)
“if that's where he goes he's gonna be a big bust this coming year because people are expecting RB one production if they are rafting Chase Brown.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-200 skillHow this was scored
- call:
- bust
- cost:
- twelve RB overall
- naive:
- he repeats last season
- skill:
- -200
- player:
- Chase Brown
- season:
- 2025
- correct:
- no
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 100
- position:
- RB
- had to beat:
- RB12
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- actual finish:
- RB10
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- measured against:
- the source named no cost — measured against his own 2024 finish
- Fantasy Bust CallsKyren WilliamsLos Angeles RamsJun 14, 2025
Kyren Williams to fall short of his draft cost (ranking him as an RB one)
“So I was in on Kiren last year, but I am out this year... people are drafting him as an RB one, he easily could be an RB two in this offense”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+200 skillHow this was scored
- call:
- bust
- cost:
- ranking him as an RB one
- naive:
- he repeats last season
- skill:
- 200
- player:
- Kyren Williams
- season:
- 2025
- correct:
- yes
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- position:
- RB
- had to beat:
- RB6
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- actual finish:
- RB8
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- measured against:
- the source named no cost — measured against his own 2024 finish
Drake Maye to finish top 20 at his position, by fantasy points
“I'm actually in line with these projections, Like right now, I've got Drake May as my QB twenty I think”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skillHow this was scored
- skill:
- 0
- player:
- Drake Maye
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- 12
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- position:
- QB
- ranked by:
- fantasy points
- difficulty:
- 2
- the naive guess:
- where he finished last season
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- naive finish:
- 22
- actual finish:
- 2
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- predicted finish:
- 20
What others said about the same people
- Steven RuizTrade and Signing Calls · A.J. BrownHit · 100Ruiz expects the Eagles to trade A.J. Brown once the June 1 dead-cap threshold passes, most likely to New England, and thinks Baker Mayfield will get a Buccaneers extension making him the league's highest-paid quarterback within a month or two. He also argues the Lions may have to let one or two of their 2023 draft class leave, and that Houston should extend C.J. Stroud.
- Brandon CarneyTrade and Signing Calls · A.J. BrownHit · 100Carney drafted a team of rookies he expects to make an immediate fantasy impact (headlined by Karnell Tate and Makai Lemon), predicted landing spots for the remaining big-name free agents, and gave way-too-early division winners, wild cards and award picks — Patriots, Chargers, Bengals, Jaguars, Eagles, Rams, Vikings and Saints as division champs with Joe Burrow as MVP.
- Jeremy WhiteTrade and Signing Calls · A.J. BrownHit · 100Jeremy White expects the Patriots to acquire AJ Brown, calling the trade likely inevitable within about a month.
- Chris BrockmanTrade and Signing Calls · A.J. BrownHit · 100Brockman predicted only Stafford and Josh Allen of last year's MVP vote-getters get votes again, Fernando Mendoza starts and wins Rookie of the Year, the Colts win the AFC South, AJ Brown is traded to New England leaving DeVonta Smith as Philadelphia's clear No. 1 and a breakout star, five running backs top 1,600 yards, George Pickens breaks a Cowboys receiving record, and Justin Fields starts for Kansas City in September.
- Shannon SharpeTrade and Signing Calls · A.J. BrownHit · 100Sharpe predicted that A.J. Brown will be playing for New England once June 1 arrives.
- Chad Ochocinco JohnsonTrade and Signing Calls · A.J. BrownHit · 100Ochocinco predicted George Pickens will be traded away from Dallas now that he has signed the franchise tag, naming the Browns, Raiders and possibly Buffalo as his three landing spots. He also called both No. 2 pick David Bailey and No. 3 pick Jeremiah Love immediate Day 1 starters, and said he has been saying for months that A.J. Brown will end up in New England.
More fantasy bust calls
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
- Ryan WormeliFantasy Bust Calls · Zay FlowersMiss · 0Host Ryan Warmley endorsed Ricky Pearsall as a bet worth making and put his rookie-receiver capital in Tetairoa McMillan, while fading Zay Flowers at his cost and opting out of Marvin Harrison Jr.
- Chris WelshFantasy Bust Calls · Austin EkelerHit · 100Welsh drafted Christian McCaffrey, Breece Hall, RJ Harvey, Tetairoa McMillan, Travis Hunter, the Rams and Saints receivers, Justin Fields (a top-10 QB), Drake Maye (QB10-14), Travis Kelce and Tyler Warren, while passing on Joe Mixon, the Commanders backfield, Tyreek Hill, Rashee Rice and Xavier Worthy.
- Pat FitzmauriceFantasy Bust Calls · Breece HallMiss · 0Pat Fitzmaurice gave draft-or-pass calls: reluctant drafts on Christian McCaffrey, RJ Harvey, Tetairoa McMillan (his WR16), Rashee Rice at a ninth-round price, Austin Ekeler, Chris Rodriguez, Chris Olave, Drake Maye (his QB8) and Tyler Warren, with passes on Breece Hall, Joe Mixon, Croskey-Merritt, Tyreek Hill, Travis Hunter, the Rams receivers and Justin Fields.
- Joe PisapiaFantasy Bust Calls · Christian McCaffreyMiss · 0Joey P (Joe Pisapia) played draft-or-pass on 2025 fantasy values: he passed on Christian McCaffrey at pick 7, Breece Hall, Rashee Rice, Xavier Worthy, Travis Hunter and Chris Olave, while drafting RJ Harvey, Tyreek Hill, Tetairoa McMillan, Puka Nacua, Tyler Warren and a late-round Joe Mixon.
- Sean KernerFantasy Bust Calls · Travis HunterMiss · 0Kerner's top move is Travis Hunter to Jacksonville, though he calls Hunter's WR30 price a bit rich given usage uncertainty. He is all-in on Ashton Jeanty as a workhorse with top-five rookie upside, likes Ben Johnson's arrival for Caleb Williams and rookie TE Colston Loveland, expects DeVonta Adams to boost Matthew Stafford's touchdown total over 22.5, and is heavily drafting Jayden Higgins as Houston's No. 2 receiver.
- Jake CielyFantasy Bust Calls · Romeo DoubsMiss · 0Seeley mocks anyone going back to Kyle Pitts, treating him as a tight end who will burn drafters again, while touting Trey Benson as a discounted value who remains the clear backup to James Connor. He also calls out late-round picks like Justice Hill, Rashad Bateman and Romeo Doubs as upside-less bench wastes.