Derek Brown· May 31, 2025
Brown is out on Kyren Williams, Aaron Jones and DeAndre Swift while targeting R.J. Harvey, Trevion Henderson, Kenneth Walker, Bucky Irving, Tony Pollard, Kaleb Johnson, Cam Skattebo, Jarquez Hunter, Rishard Smith, MarShawn Lloyd and Javonte Williams as guys who beat their current cost.
“I've got RJ. Harvey is locked in top fifteen back this year.”
said on air or in an interview · The Herd with Colin Cowherd (podcast) · read the original →
The page this came from has changed since we captured it on Aug 5, 2026. The quote and evidence above are from our capture, not from what the page says today.
10 checkable claims — 7 sleeper calls, 2 depth chart calls and 1 fantasy bust call — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.
It names 18 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
8 of 10 have settled so far, averaging 72.9 out of 100, against 49 for a naive guess at the same calls.
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Who this take is about
10 checkable claims in this take
Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.
- Sleeper CallsJavonte WilliamsDallas CowboysMay 31, 2025
Javonte Williams to outplay his draft cost (RB thirty seven)
“if he looks like the guy from weeks one through eight, Yeah, this is this year's JK. Dobbins... I just bumped him up to RB thirty two”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+200 skillHow this was scored
- call:
- sleeper
- cost:
- RB thirty seven
- naive:
- he repeats last season
- skill:
- 200
- player:
- Javonte Williams
- season:
- 2025
- correct:
- yes
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- position:
- RB
- had to beat:
- RB32
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- actual finish:
- RB11
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- measured against:
- the source named no cost — measured against his own 2024 finish
- Sleeper CallsBrashard SmithKansas City ChiefsMay 31, 2025
Brashard Smith to outplay his draft cost (RB ninety one)
“I think Rishard Smith is gonna make noise in this backfield as the new Jerrick McKinnon... He should be inside the top fifty like he is in my ranks”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-200 skillHow this was scored
- call:
- sleeper
- cost:
- RB ninety one
- naive:
- a player with no record returns what an unknown at his position is worth
- skill:
- -200
- player:
- Brashard Smith
- season:
- 2025
- correct:
- no
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 100
- position:
- RB
- had to beat:
- RB24
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- actual finish:
- RB70
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- measured against:
- the source named no cost, and he has no prior season — measured against the startable tier
- Sleeper CallsKaleb JohnsonPittsburgh SteelersMay 31, 2025
Kaleb Johnson to outplay his draft cost (RB twenty nine)
“Somebody explained to me why Caleb Johnson is not in this tier... he shouldn't be in this tier. He is the clear guy”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-200 skillHow this was scored
- call:
- sleeper
- cost:
- RB twenty nine
- naive:
- a player with no record returns what an unknown at his position is worth
- skill:
- -200
- player:
- Kaleb Johnson
- season:
- 2025
- correct:
- no
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 100
- position:
- RB
- had to beat:
- RB24
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- actual finish:
- RB104
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- measured against:
- the source named no cost, and he has no prior season — measured against the startable tier
- Sleeper CallsRJ HarveyDenver BroncosMay 31, 2025
RJ Harvey to outplay his draft cost (RB twenty three)
“I've got RJ. Harvey is locked in top fifteen back this year”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+200 skillHow this was scored
- call:
- sleeper
- cost:
- RB twenty three
- naive:
- a player with no record returns what an unknown at his position is worth
- skill:
- 200
- player:
- RJ Harvey
- season:
- 2025
- correct:
- yes
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- position:
- RB
- had to beat:
- RB24
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- actual finish:
- RB22
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- measured against:
- the source named no cost, and he has no prior season — measured against the startable tier
- Fantasy Bust CallsAaron JonesMinnesota VikingsMay 31, 2025
Aaron Jones to fall short of his draft cost (RB twenty two)
“So Aaron Jones, I can't draft at RB twenty two right now. I just I can't do it.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+200 skillHow this was scored
- call:
- bust
- cost:
- RB twenty two
- naive:
- he repeats last season
- skill:
- 200
- player:
- Aaron Jones
- season:
- 2025
- correct:
- yes
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- position:
- RB
- had to beat:
- RB16
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- actual finish:
- RB44
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- measured against:
- the source named no cost — measured against his own 2024 finish
TreVeyon Henderson to outplay his draft cost (RB twenty four)
“outside of r J. Harvey, Trevion is gonna be definitely one of my big targets this year”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+200 skillHow this was scored
- call:
- sleeper
- cost:
- RB twenty four
- naive:
- a player with no record returns what an unknown at his position is worth
- skill:
- 200
- player:
- TreVeyon Henderson
- season:
- 2025
- correct:
- yes
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- position:
- RB
- had to beat:
- RB24
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- actual finish:
- RB19
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- measured against:
- the source named no cost, and he has no prior season — measured against the startable tier
Kaleb Johnson to be 1st on the depth chart
“going back to Caleb Johnson, he shouldn't be in this tier. He is the clear guy”
Hit · 83Scored 83.33a naive guess scored 91.67-16.67 skillHow this was scored
- club:
- PIT
- skill:
- -16.67
- player:
- Kaleb Johnson
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 83.33
- baseline:
- 91.67
- position:
- RB
- naive slot:
- 2
- actual slot:
- 3
- difficulty:
- 2
- measured by:
- rushing yards
- the naive guess:
- no prior season — a rookie is assumed to start behind the incumbent
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- predicted slot:
- 1
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- Depth Chart CallsTony PollardTennessee TitansMay 31, 2025
Tony Pollard to be 1st on the depth chart
“I think Tony Pollard is still going to be the quick, clear, workhorse, sixty to sixty five percent snap guy. He's gonna get the red zone touches”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skillHow this was scored
- club:
- TEN
- skill:
- 0
- player:
- Tony Pollard
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- position:
- RB
- naive slot:
- 1
- actual slot:
- 1
- difficulty:
- 2
- measured by:
- rushing yards
- the naive guess:
- where he sat last season
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- predicted slot:
- 1
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- Sleeper CallsMarShawn LloydGreen Bay PackersMay 31, 2025
MarShawn Lloyd to outplay his draft cost (outside the top fifty)
“the guy that he's not inside the top fifty, the Green Bay Packers didn't do anything to add to their backfield. Marshaun Lloyd”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
- Sleeper CallsJarquez HunterLos Angeles RamsMay 31, 2025
Jarquez Hunter to outplay his draft cost (outside the top fifty)
“Jarqust Hunter, I'm going to bring up yet again because he is going to play a role in this backfield”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
What others said about the same people
- Mike MoraitisTrade and Signing Calls · DaRon BlandMiss · 0Moraitis names five Cowboys he expects to be playing their final season opener in Dallas in 2026: George Pickens (likely tag-and-trade or departure), Malik Hooker, Luke Schoonmaker, DeMarvion Overshown and DaRon Bland.
- Steven RuizTrade and Signing Calls · A.J. BrownHit · 100Ruiz expects the Eagles to trade A.J. Brown once the June 1 dead-cap threshold passes, most likely to New England, and thinks Baker Mayfield will get a Buccaneers extension making him the league's highest-paid quarterback within a month or two. He also argues the Lions may have to let one or two of their 2023 draft class leave, and that Houston should extend C.J. Stroud.
- Jason McIntyreTrade and Signing Calls · Baker MayfieldMiss · 0Filling in for Colin Cowherd, McIntyre argued the 49ers' window is closed amid a brutal injury list and record travel, floated a Bijan Robinson trade to the Bears, predicted the Lions can win the NFC North, doubted Atlanta is even a playoff team, said Baker Mayfield's Tampa run ends after this season, and delivered a top-10 quarterback ranking.
- Brandon CarneyTrade and Signing Calls · A.J. BrownHit · 100Carney drafted a team of rookies he expects to make an immediate fantasy impact (headlined by Karnell Tate and Makai Lemon), predicted landing spots for the remaining big-name free agents, and gave way-too-early division winners, wild cards and award picks — Patriots, Chargers, Bengals, Jaguars, Eagles, Rams, Vikings and Saints as division champs with Joe Burrow as MVP.
- Jeremy WhiteTrade and Signing Calls · A.J. BrownHit · 100Jeremy White expects the Patriots to acquire AJ Brown, calling the trade likely inevitable within about a month.
- Chris BrockmanTrade and Signing Calls · A.J. BrownHit · 100Brockman predicted only Stafford and Josh Allen of last year's MVP vote-getters get votes again, Fernando Mendoza starts and wins Rookie of the Year, the Colts win the AFC South, AJ Brown is traded to New England leaving DeVonta Smith as Philadelphia's clear No. 1 and a breakout star, five running backs top 1,600 yards, George Pickens breaks a Cowboys receiving record, and Justin Fields starts for Kansas City in September.
More sleeper calls
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
- Tom StrachanSleeper Calls · Ricky PearsallHit · 100Tom Strachan backed Xavier Worthy, Jalen Coker, Egbuka, Jalen Waddle, Darnell Mooney, Zay Flowers, George Pickens, DeVonta Smith and Travis Hunter as values at their draft costs, while avoiding Jerry Jeudy and the Cleveland receivers.
- Ryan WormeliSleeper Calls · Ricky PearsallHit · 100Host Ryan Warmley endorsed Ricky Pearsall as a bet worth making and put his rookie-receiver capital in Tetairoa McMillan, while fading Zay Flowers at his cost and opting out of Marvin Harrison Jr.
- Chris WelshSleeper Calls · Tyler WarrenHit · 100Welsh drafted Christian McCaffrey, Breece Hall, RJ Harvey, Tetairoa McMillan, Travis Hunter, the Rams and Saints receivers, Justin Fields (a top-10 QB), Drake Maye (QB10-14), Travis Kelce and Tyler Warren, while passing on Joe Mixon, the Commanders backfield, Tyreek Hill, Rashee Rice and Xavier Worthy.
- Pat FitzmauriceSleeper Calls · Chris Rodriguez Jr.Hit · 100Pat Fitzmaurice gave draft-or-pass calls: reluctant drafts on Christian McCaffrey, RJ Harvey, Tetairoa McMillan (his WR16), Rashee Rice at a ninth-round price, Austin Ekeler, Chris Rodriguez, Chris Olave, Drake Maye (his QB8) and Tyler Warren, with passes on Breece Hall, Joe Mixon, Croskey-Merritt, Tyreek Hill, Travis Hunter, the Rams receivers and Justin Fields.
- Joe PisapiaSleeper Calls · Tyreek HillMiss · 0Joey P (Joe Pisapia) played draft-or-pass on 2025 fantasy values: he passed on Christian McCaffrey at pick 7, Breece Hall, Rashee Rice, Xavier Worthy, Travis Hunter and Chris Olave, while drafting RJ Harvey, Tyreek Hill, Tetairoa McMillan, Puka Nacua, Tyler Warren and a late-round Joe Mixon.
- Ryan WormeliSleeper Calls · Tetairoa McMillanHit · 100Hosting the segment, Warmley backed Bryce Young to finish better than his QB22 consensus ranking, endorsed Cedric Tillman as a late-round target, and said Tetairoa McMillan will be a top-15 fantasy receiver this season.