John Middlekauff · Apr 23, 2026

On his Three and Out podcast, Middlekauff gave ten bold predictions for the first round of the 2026 NFL Draft: Fernando Mendoza first overall as the only first-round quarterback, Ty Simpson falling out of round one, Jeremiah Love sliding out of the top five, Sonny Styles to the Titans at four, Omar Cooper as the second receiver drafted, the Lions trading up for a tackle, and Aaron Rodgers' return being announced around draft week.

“So my bold prediction is Jeremiah Love does not go in the top five.”

said on air or in an interview · The Herd with Colin Cowherd (podcast) · read the original →

7 checkable claims from this

Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.

Mock Draft Picks Ty SimpsonApr 23, 2026
“I do not think That Ty simpson goes in the first round... SO i do not think Ty simpson's off the board On thursday night”
Scored 100a naive guess scored 50
How this was scored
draft:
2026
naive:
a shuffled mock scores 50
player:
Ty Simpson
season:
2026
zero at:
32
accuracy:
100
baseline:
50
actual pick:
13
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
pick accuracy:
100
predicted pick:
does not go in the first round (picks 1–32)
weeks left when called:
0
mock ordering score:
only one pick — no order to score
Think this is wrong?
Mock Draft Picks Jeremiyah LoveApr 23, 2026
“so my bold prediction Is Jeremiah love does not go in the top five”
Scored 100a naive guess scored 50
How this was scored
draft:
2026
naive:
a shuffled mock scores 50
player:
Jeremiyah Love
season:
2026
zero at:
32
accuracy:
100
baseline:
50
actual pick:
3
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
pick accuracy:
100
predicted pick:
does not go in the top five (picks 1–5)
weeks left when called:
0
mock ordering score:
only one pick — no order to score
Think this is wrong?
Position Order Calls Omar CooperApr 23, 2026
“So Omar Cooper, second wide receiver off the board.”
Scored 35.36a naive guess scored 14.51+20.84 skill
How this was scored
draft:
2026
naive:
naming one of the 36 at random averages 14.51
skill:
20.84
player:
Omar Cooper
season:
2026
zero at:
credit halves every two places
accuracy:
35.36
baseline:
14.51
position:
wide receiver
class size:
36
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
actual order:
5
predicted order:
2
weeks left when called:
0
Think this is wrong?
Mock Draft Picks Sonny Styles Tennessee TitansApr 23, 2026
“I do think The titans can Go Sony styles because everyone's telling me they're gonna Ta jeremiah... so you Go mendoza the two pass Rushers. Styles”
Scored 0a naive guess scored 50
How this was scored
draft:
2026
naive:
a shuffled mock scores 50
player:
Sonny Styles
season:
2026
zero at:
undrafted
outcome:
went undrafted in 2026; later signed with WAS
accuracy:
0
baseline:
50
actual pick:
undrafted
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
pick accuracy:
0
predicted pick:
4
weeks left when called:
0
mock ordering score:
only one pick — no order to score
Think this is wrong?
Mock Draft Picks Fernando MendozaApr 23, 2026
“I think we see one quarterback get drafted and That's Fernando mendez at number one... So fernando goes one”
Scored 100a naive guess scored 50
How this was scored
draft:
2026
naive:
a shuffled mock scores 50
player:
Fernando Mendoza
season:
2026
zero at:
32
accuracy:
100
baseline:
50
actual pick:
1
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
pick accuracy:
100
predicted pick:
1
weeks left when called:
0
mock ordering score:
only one pick — no order to score
Think this is wrong?
Trade and Signing Calls Aaron Rodgers Pittsburgh SteelersApr 23, 2026
“I predicted Aaron Rodgers. We get some news during the draft that Aaron Rodgers officially coming back... It'll definitely happen by Friday.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the season it describes has finished.
Think this is wrong?
Team Draft Slot Calls Detroit LionsApr 23, 2026
“I think the Lions at seventeen have moving up for a tackle written all over them... But I can see the Lions moving up seven or eight spots and taking an offensive line”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the season it describes has finished.
Think this is wrong?