John Middlekauff· Apr 27, 2026
Middlekauff hammers the Rams for taking quarterback Ty Simpson 13th overall, arguing Simpson's ceiling is only that of a 10th-to-15th-best NFL quarterback and that the pick can't repay its cost. He also cautions against the 2027 quarterback hype, saying that based on last season's play Dante Moore, not Arch Manning, would be his No. 1 overall pick.
“His best case scenario is to be like the tenth to fifteenth quarterback in the NFL, that's best case scenario.”
said on air or in an interview · The Herd with Colin Cowherd (podcast) · read the original →
The page this came from has changed since we captured it on Aug 5, 2026. The quote and evidence above are from our capture, not from what the page says today.
2 checkable claims — 1 draft bust call and 1 mock draft pick — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.
It names 3 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
1 of 2 have settled so far, averaging 0 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess at the same calls.
Their call against what happened
overall pickTheir call against what actually happened.
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Who this take is about
2 checkable claims in this take
Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.
- Mock Draft PicksMatt MooreApr 27, 2026
Matt Moore to be picked at number 1
“everyone's Saying Arch banning is the number one overall. Pick i'm rooting for. HIM ... but based on what we saw last. Year number one overall Pick Dante. Moore”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 50How this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- player:
- Matt Moore
- season:
- 2026
- zero at:
- undrafted
- outcome:
- went undrafted in 2026; later signed with KC
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- undrafted
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 0
- predicted pick:
- 1
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- only one pick — no order to score
- Draft Bust CallsTy SimpsonLos Angeles RamsApr 27, 2026
Ty Simpson to disappoint at the next level
“But when you use the thirteenth overall pick on a quarterback, the pressure on that guy is to be a top ten quarterback... And that is the issue with the Rams is they paid a premium for a guy, by all accounts, is not a premium. His best case scenario is to be like the tenth to fifteenth quarterback in the NFL that's best case scenario.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
What others said about the same people
- Jared DubinScore Predictions · Los Angeles RamsClose · 50Dubin picks the Rams to beat the Giants on Monday Night Football, sticking with preseason expectations over Week 1 overreaction. He gives two conditional scores depending on whether Puka Nacua plays: a comfortable 27-17 win if Nacua suits up, and a narrow 17-16 win if he sits.
- Dan OrlovskyGame Outcome Picks · Los Angeles RamsHit · 100Orlovsky said that even without Puka Nacua the Rams would find a way to beat the Giants on Monday night, though he thought the Giants would keep it within a touchdown.
- Jared DubinScore Predictions · Los Angeles RamsClose · 71Dubin picked the Rams to beat the Giants 27-17 on Monday night.
- Pete PriscoScore Predictions · Los Angeles RamsHit · 86Prisco picked the Rams to beat the Giants 30-14.
- Jordan DajaniScore Predictions · Los Angeles RamsClose · 69Dajani picked the Rams to beat the Giants 30-21.
- John BreechScore Predictions · Los Angeles RamsClose · 55Breech expects Caleb Williams to return quickly from his hamstring injury, at the latest by Week 4 against the Jets or Week 5 against the Packers, and he picked the Rams to beat the Giants on Monday night. He also floated the Saints as a potential surprise team this season.
More draft bust calls
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
- Kyle SoppeDraft Bust Calls · Xavier WorthyPendingSoppe names four players he considers overvalued for 2026 fantasy football after hot 2025 seasons — Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Patrick Mahomes, Rhamondre Stevenson and Harold Fannin Jr. — and argues Smith-Njigba is far more likely to repeat his modest 2024 line than his 2025 explosion, while Xavier Worthy won't justify his first-round draft capital and TreVeyon Henderson takes over New England's lead backfield role.
- Colin CowherdDraft Bust Calls · Quentin JohnstonPendingIn a one-minute-per-team AFC preview, the unnamed host called the Bills a near-lock for 10 wins and still the AFC East favorite, tabbed the Dolphins as the league's worst team with the Jets close behind, said Aaron Glenn may be the NFL's worst head coach, projected another nine-win season for the Bengals, called Cleveland's quarterback room the league's worst, insisted Patrick Mahomes will start Week 1, and doubted Quentin Johnston will justify his draft slot.
- Eric CrockerDraft Bust Calls · De'Zhaun StriblingPendingIn a mock war-room debate, Crocker argued the 49ers wasted the 33rd overall pick on Dejean Stribling, comparing him to the Trey Lance gamble on traits and work ethic, and citing inconsistent route-running and trouble playing through contact.
- Gregg RosenthalDraft Bust Calls · David BaileyPendingAfter the first round, Rosenthal said he's going back to being bullish on Tampa Bay, expecting them to exceed whatever win total is set, and made several role/depth-chart calls on newly drafted players — Mendoza starting Week 1 in Las Vegas, Concepcion leading Cleveland in targets, Mauiinoa opening at guard, Rutledge at center, Price as Seattle's RB1 and Wandell Robinson sliding to a No. 3 receiver role. He also called the Jets' David Bailey pick at No. 2 a mistake.
- Pat GustavsonDraft Bust Calls · Jordyn TysonPendingGustafson handled the even-numbered mock draft picks: David Bailey No. 2 to the Jets, Jeremiah Love No. 4 to the Titans, Karnell Tate No. 6 to the Browns, Ruben Bane No. 8 to the Saints, Jordan Tyson No. 10 to the Giants, and so on. He also said Ty Simpson will be the biggest first-round bust and predicted the Cowboys will trade up into the top five.
- Brandon CarneyDraft Bust Calls · Kenyon SadiqPendingCo-hosting a mock draft, Carney made the odd-numbered picks: Fernando Mendoza No. 1 to the Raiders, Arvell Reese No. 3 to the Cardinals, Sonny Styles No. 5 to the Giants, Mekhi Lemon No. 7 to the Commanders, Caleb Downs No. 9 to the Chiefs, and more. He also predicted AJ Brown will be a Patriot, said Kenyan Saddiq will be the first-round bust, and picked the Bengals to finish ahead of the Ravens in the AFC North.