JP Acosta· Feb 25, 2026

Acosta says Peter Woods and Caleb Banks will be the first two defensive tackles off the board, bets on Christian Miller sneaking into the first round, has Fernando Mendoza going No. 1 overall as the clear QB1 with Ty Simpson QB2, Kenyan Suik as TE1 and Makai Lemmon as his WR1, expects Caleb Lomu to weigh around 308 pounds, and pegs Munro Freeling as a candidate to be the first offensive lineman drafted with Maxi Amator sneaking into the back of round one; he calls Jermaine McCoy a sure-fire CB1 if healthy.

“We all know Fernando Mendoza is going to go number one overall.”

said on air, transcribed by us · Pushing the Pile (podcast) · read the original →

12 checkable claims — 8 position order calls, 3 mock draft picks and 1 combine measurement — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.

It names 12 players and teams, each linked to their own record.

10 of 12 have settled so far, averaging 65 out of 100, against 36.3 for a naive guess at the same calls.

Where do you stand? Pick this and every open claim on Picks →

Who this take is about

12 checkable claims in this take

Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.

Combine Measurements Caleb LomuFeb 25, 2026
“I think he's gonna come in at maybe three hundred and eight pounds, which is really light for an NFL offensive tackle.”
Close · 77Scored 77.26a naive guess scored 79.53-2.27 skill
How this was scored
off:
5
drill:
weight lbs
naive:
the average OT (317.44, from 132 results)
scale:
credit halves every 13.43 — one standard deviation for a OT
skill:
-2.27
player:
Caleb Lomu
result:
313
season:
2025
combine year:
2026
accuracy:
77.26
baseline:
79.53
predicted:
308
sigmas out:
0.37
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
0
Combine results via Pro-Football-Reference.com.
Think this is wrong?
Mock Draft Picks Max IheanachorFeb 25, 2026
Max Iheanachor to be picked “the back of the first round” (picks 1–32)
“So if he runs really well, he tests really well, I could see him sneaking into the back of the first round.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 50
How this was scored
draft:
2026
naive:
a shuffled mock scores 50
player:
Max Iheanachor
season:
2025
zero at:
32
accuracy:
100
baseline:
50
actual pick:
21
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
pick accuracy:
100
predicted pick:
the back of the first round (picks 1–32)
weeks left when called:
0
mock ordering score:
only one pick — no order to score
Think this is wrong?
Mock Draft Picks Fernando MendozaFeb 25, 2026
Fernando Mendoza to be picked at number 1
“We all know Fernando Mendoza is going to go number one overall.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 50
How this was scored
draft:
2026
naive:
a shuffled mock scores 50
player:
Fernando Mendoza
season:
2025
zero at:
32
accuracy:
100
baseline:
50
actual pick:
1
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
pick accuracy:
100
predicted pick:
1
weeks left when called:
0
mock ordering score:
only one pick — no order to score
Think this is wrong?
Mock Draft Picks Christian MillerFeb 25, 2026
Christian Miller to be picked “first round” (picks 1–32)
“So I would bet on Christian Miller because of the youth and because of the explosiveness (asked who would work his way into the first round)”
Miss · 3Scored 2.74a naive guess scored 50
How this was scored
draft:
2019
naive:
a shuffled mock scores 50
player:
Christian Miller
season:
2025
zero at:
32
accuracy:
2.74
baseline:
50
actual pick:
115
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
pick accuracy:
2.74
predicted pick:
first round (picks 1–32)
weeks left when called:
0
mock ordering score:
only one pick — no order to score
Think this is wrong?
Position Order Calls Fernando MendozaFeb 25, 2026
Fernando Mendoza to be 1st quarterback off the board
“He is the far and away QB one in this draft class.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 33.08+66.92 skill
How this was scored
draft:
2026
naive:
naming one of the 10 at random averages 33.08
skill:
66.92
player:
Fernando Mendoza
season:
2025
zero at:
credit halves every two places
accuracy:
100
baseline:
33.08
position:
quarterback
class size:
10
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
actual order:
1
predicted order:
1
weeks left when called:
0
Think this is wrong?
Position Order Calls Jermod McCoy Tennessee TitansFeb 25, 2026
Jermod McCoy to be 1st cornerback off the board
“I think he is sure fired c b one in this class if everything checks out and he's healthy.”
Miss · 2Scored 2.21a naive guess scored 21.34-19.13 skill
How this was scored
draft:
2026
naive:
naming one of the 27 at random averages 21.34
skill:
-19.13
player:
Jermod McCoy
season:
2025
zero at:
credit halves every two places
accuracy:
2.21
baseline:
21.34
position:
cornerback
class size:
27
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
actual order:
12
predicted order:
1
weeks left when called:
0
Think this is wrong?
Position Order Calls Ty SimpsonFeb 25, 2026
Ty Simpson to be 2nd quarterback off the board
“So I think right now QB two is Ty Simpson”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 39.7+60.3 skill
How this was scored
draft:
2026
naive:
naming one of the 10 at random averages 39.7
skill:
60.3
player:
Ty Simpson
season:
2025
zero at:
credit halves every two places
accuracy:
100
baseline:
39.7
position:
quarterback
class size:
10
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
actual order:
2
predicted order:
2
weeks left when called:
0
Think this is wrong?
Position Order Calls Kenyon SadiqFeb 25, 2026
Kenyon Sadiq to be 1st tight end off the board
“Because we already know Kenyan Suik is tight end one”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 15.51+84.49 skill
How this was scored
draft:
2026
naive:
naming one of the 22 at random averages 15.51
skill:
84.49
player:
Kenyon Sadiq
season:
2025
zero at:
credit halves every two places
accuracy:
100
baseline:
15.51
position:
tight end
class size:
22
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
actual order:
1
predicted order:
1
weeks left when called:
0
Think this is wrong?
Position Order Calls Monroe FreelingFeb 25, 2026
Monroe Freeling to be 1st offensive lineman off the board
“I actually think Munro Freeling has a really good chance to be the the first offensive lineman off the board come April”
Miss · 18Scored 17.68a naive guess scored 10.8+6.87 skill
How this was scored
draft:
2026
naive:
naming one of the 50 at random averages 10.8
skill:
6.87
player:
Monroe Freeling
season:
2025
zero at:
credit halves every two places
accuracy:
17.68
baseline:
10.8
position:
offensive lineman
class size:
50
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
actual order:
6
predicted order:
1
weeks left when called:
0
Think this is wrong?
Position Order Calls Makai LemonFeb 25, 2026
Makai Lemon to be 1st wide receiver off the board
“Makai Lemmon is actually my wide receiver one so far in this draft class”
Close · 50Scored 50a naive guess scored 12.84+37.16 skill
How this was scored
draft:
2026
naive:
naming one of the 36 at random averages 12.84
skill:
37.16
player:
Makai Lemon
season:
2025
zero at:
credit halves every two places
accuracy:
50
baseline:
12.84
position:
wide receiver
class size:
36
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
actual order:
3
predicted order:
1
weeks left when called:
0
Think this is wrong?
Position Order Calls Peter WoodsFeb 25, 2026
Peter Woods to be one of the first two defensive tackles to go off the board defensive tackle off the board
“there's Peter Woods from Clemson, Caleb Banks from Florida. Those feel like the first two guys that are going to go off the board come April when it comes to the defensive tackle class.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
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Position Order Calls Caleb BanksFeb 25, 2026
Caleb Banks to be one of the first two defensive tackles to go off the board defensive tackle off the board
“Those feel like the first two guys that are going to go off the board come April when it comes to the defensive tackle class.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
Think this is wrong?

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12 checkable claims in this take

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