Rich Eisen· Mar 3, 2025
Eisen predicts three quarterbacks go in the first round, with Jaxson Dart taken at the end of the first round, and rejects the notion of three running backs or four quarterbacks in round one. He says Shedeur Sanders will not fall out of the top 10, and that the Browns will draft a quarterback second overall.
“I think three quarterbacks go in the first round.”
said on air, transcribed by us · Overreaction Monday (podcast) · read the original →
5 checkable claims — 2 mock draft picks, 1 conference champion, 1 division winner and 1 team draft slot call — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.
It names 5 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
All 5 have settled, averaging 37.6 out of 100, against 22.4 for a naive guess at the same calls.
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Who this take is about
5 checkable claims in this take
Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.
- Division WinnersLos Angeles RamsMar 3, 2025
Los Angeles Rams to win the division
“With him staying put, the NFC West Rams division to lose in 2025. I totally agree. I absolutely totally agree.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skillHow this was scored
- skill:
- 0
- method:
- division winners read off the bracket: the bye teams and the wild-card hosts
- they picked:
- LAR
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- the naive pick:
- LAR
- difficulty:
- 2
- the naive guess:
- last season's winner of the same division
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- won the division:
- no
- Conference ChampionsPhiladelphia EaglesMar 3, 2025
Philadelphia Eagles to reach the Super Bowl
“How do we go from that to, oh, they got Deebo, and, no longer are they the the leaders in the clubhouse in their own conference. Jeez, man. That's an overreaction.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skillHow this was scored
- skill:
- 0
- they picked:
- PHI
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- champions:
- NE,SEA
- difficulty:
- 2
- the naive guess:
- last season's conference champions
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- reached the Super Bowl:
- no
- lost the conference final:
- no
- Mock Draft PicksJaxson DartMar 3, 2025
Jaxson Dart to be picked “taken the end of the first round” (picks 1–32)
“So I think Jackson Dart is gonna get taken the end of the first round.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 50How this was scored
- draft:
- 2025
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- player:
- Jaxson Dart
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 25
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 100
- predicted pick:
- taken the end of the first round (picks 1–32)
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- only one pick — no order to score
- Mock Draft PicksShedeur SandersMar 3, 2025
Shedeur Sanders to be picked “not falling out of the top 10” (picks 1–10)
“So I don't think he's falling out of the top 10 at all. No way, man.”
Miss · 0Scored 0.3a naive guess scored 50How this was scored
- draft:
- 2025
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- player:
- Shedeur Sanders
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 0.3
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 144
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 0.3
- predicted pick:
- not falling out of the top 10 (picks 1–10)
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- only one pick — no order to score
- Team Draft Slot CallsCleveland BrownsMar 3, 2025
Cleveland Browns to pick at number 2
“virtually every human I I ran into in the Indianapolis thinks the Browns are taking a quarterback second overall, and that's the end of that”
Hit · 88Scored 87.81a naive guess scored 11.97+151.69 skillHow this was scored
- team:
- CLE
- draft:
- 2025
- naive:
- they picked 54 the year before
- skill:
- 151.69
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 87.81
- baseline:
- 11.97
- actual pick:
- 5
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- predicted pick:
- 2
- weeks left when called:
- 18
What others said about the same people
- Blaine GrisakRoster Spot Calls · Dean ConnorsMiss · 0Grisak argues Wesley Bailey has essentially played his way onto the Rams' roster after a 10-pressure preseason game, suggests Dean Connors and Tim Keenan III could be cut and stashed on the practice squad, and makes a case for Jarquez Hunter making the 53 despite bubble status.
- Blaine GrisakRoster Spot Calls · Dean ConnorsHit · 100After the Rams' first preseason game, Grisak predicted the full 53-man roster, naming three quarterbacks, four running backs, five receivers, five tight ends, nine offensive linemen, four linebackers, six defensive linemen, four edge rushers, five cornerbacks, five safeties and three special teamers, with Dean Connors headed for the practice squad instead.
- Blaine GrisakRoster Spot Calls · Dean ConnorsMiss · 0Reviewing the Rams' preseason win, Grisak predicted roster outcomes: Dean Connors likely lands on the practice squad rather than the 53, Xavier Smith's roster chances look poor, Nick Andersen is a strong practice squad candidate, and Mark Redman is likely a practice squad candidate.
- Patricia TrainaRoster Spot Calls · Jaxson DartHit · 100Traina projects the Giants' initial 53-man roster position by position, naming who makes the team and who lands on the practice squad, including keeping Tyrone Tracy Jr. and Evan Neal (with a possible trade), Dalen Cambre over Braxton Berrios, Lucas Patrick as backup center, and Dominic Zvada as the kicker.
- Jeff KerrRoster Spot Calls · Cole PaytonHit · 100Kerr ranks the Eagles' 2025 draft picks by cut risk, predicting seventh-rounders Keyshawn James-Newby and Cole Wisniewski land on the practice squad, while Cole Payton, Uar Bernard, Makai Lemon, Eli Stowers and Markel Bell make the 53. He also says Lemon starts Week 1 and Bell is the right tackle of the future.
- Jeff KerrRoster Spot Calls · Rocco UnderwoodMiss · 0Kerr ranks the Eagles' eight undrafted free agents by their chances of making the initial 53-man roster, with Kapena Gushiken the most likely and predicts at least one UDFA makes the 53. He also forecasts practice squad spots for Zion Wilson, Deontae Lawson and Maximus Pulley, and a release for long snapper Rocco Underwood.
More mock draft picks
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
- Lance ZierleinMock Draft Picks · Jeremiyah LoveHit · 100Zierlein laid out his final mock draft: Jeremiah Love at No. 3 to Arizona, Sonny Styles at No. 4 to Robert Saleh's team, and Caleb Downs to the Giants at No. 5. He also called Styles the only first-round linebacker in the class and said Ty Simpson is a lock to be a first-round pick, most likely to Arizona.
- Gregg RosenthalMock Draft Picks · K.C. ConcepcionClose · 68Rosenthal disagrees most with Casey Concepcion being left out of the first round, arguing he could go as high as the top 15 and certainly won't last past receiver-needy teams in the late twenties.
- Nick ShookMock Draft Picks · Dillon ThienemanClose · 57Shook walks through his full first-round mock draft, assigning a prospect to every pick from No. 1 to No. 32, headlined by Fernando Mendoza to the Raiders, David Bailey to the Jets and Jeremiah Love to the Cardinals in the top three.
- Daniel JeremiahMock Draft Picks · Keyron CrawfordHit · 81In discussing teams without first-round picks, Jeremiah projected specific Day 2 picks: Clemson WR Antonio Williams to the Falcons at 48, Texas Tech LB Jacob Rodriguez to the Colts in the second round, Oklahoma edge R Mason Thomas to the Packers at 52, and Auburn edge Keiroon Crawford to the Broncos at 62. He also expects Riley Leonard to open as the Colts' starting QB and Travis Hunter to play cornerback full time in Jacksonville.
- Bucky BrooksMock Draft Picks · Carnell TateHit · 81In a mock draft covering the first 14 picks, Brooks made the odd-numbered selections: Fernando Mendoza to the Raiders at No. 1, a Miami offensive lineman to Arizona at No. 3, Caleb Downs to the Giants at No. 5, Ohio State's Arvell Reese to Washington at No. 7, Carnell Tate to Kansas City at No. 9, tight end Kenyon Sadiq to Miami at No. 11, and Spencer Fano to the Rams at No. 13.
- Jeff CavanaughMock Draft Picks · Lorenzo StylesMiss · 1Streaming from the NFL Combine, Jeff pegged safety Dylan Thienemann's draft range at roughly picks 20-35, said LSU safety AJ Halsey would cost a second- or third-round pick, and insisted Sonny Styles' brother would not be a top-50 selection despite a fast 40.