Pat Gustavson· Jan 13, 2026
Gustafson picks the Patriots, Bills, Seahawks and Bears in the divisional round with a Seahawks-Patriots Super Bowl, predicts Mike Tomlin and Matt LaFleur stay, Aaron Rodgers returns to Pittsburgh, and lays out his own coaching landing spots.
“But I'll probably say Seattle, New England.”
said on air, transcribed by us · Bran Coverage with BenchwarmerBran (podcast) · read the original →
12 checkable claims — 4 game outcome picks, 4 positional finishes, 2 conference champions, 1 score prediction and 1 trade and signing call — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.
It names 12 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
11 of 12 have settled so far, averaging 54.9 out of 100, against 51.6 for a naive guess at the same calls.
Where do you stand? Pick this and every open claim on Picks →
Who this take is about
12 checkable claims in this take
Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.
- Conference ChampionsSeattle SeahawksJan 13, 2026
Seattle Seahawks to reach the Super Bowl
“But I'll probably say Seattle, New England.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+100 skillHow this was scored
- skill:
- 100
- they picked:
- SEA
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- champions:
- NE,SEA
- difficulty:
- 1
- the naive guess:
- last season's conference champions
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- reached the Super Bowl:
- yes
- lost the conference final:
- no
- Conference ChampionsNew England PatriotsJan 13, 2026
New England Patriots to reach the Super Bowl
“But I'll probably say Seattle, New England.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+100 skillHow this was scored
- skill:
- 100
- they picked:
- NE
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- champions:
- NE,SEA
- difficulty:
- 1
- the naive guess:
- last season's conference champions
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- reached the Super Bowl:
- yes
- lost the conference final:
- no
- Game Outcome PicksSeattle SeahawksJan 13, 2026
Seattle Seahawks to beat 49ers
“I I like Seattle too... But probably take Seattle here.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skillHow this was scored
- won:
- SEA
- score:
- 6-41
- skill:
- 0
- they picked:
- SEA
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive pick:
- SEA
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- Positional FinishesBijan RobinsonAtlanta FalconsJan 13, 2026
Bijan Robinson to finish top 1 at his position, by rushing yards
“Bijan Robinson is the best running back in football.”
Close · 75Scored 75a naive guess scored 91.67-16.67 skillHow this was scored
- skill:
- -16.67
- player:
- Bijan Robinson
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- 12
- accuracy:
- 75
- baseline:
- 91.67
- position:
- RB
- ranked by:
- rushing yards
- difficulty:
- 1
- the naive guess:
- where he finished last season
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- naive finish:
- 3
- actual finish:
- 4
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- predicted finish:
- 1
- Positional FinishesJosh AllenBuffalo BillsJan 13, 2026
Josh Allen to finish top 1 at his position, by passing yards
“There he's the best player in the NFL at me.”
Miss · 17Scored 16.67a naive guess scored 75-58.33 skillHow this was scored
- skill:
- -58.33
- player:
- Josh Allen
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- 12
- accuracy:
- 16.67
- baseline:
- 75
- position:
- QB
- ranked by:
- passing yards
- difficulty:
- 1
- the naive guess:
- where he finished last season
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- naive finish:
- 14
- actual finish:
- 11
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- predicted finish:
- 1
- Positional FinishesBrock BowersLas Vegas RaidersJan 13, 2026
Brock Bowers to finish top 1 at his position, by receiving yards
“They have Brock Bowers, the best tight end most talented tight end in the league.”
Miss · 25Scored 25a naive guess scored 25+0 skillHow this was scored
- skill:
- 0
- player:
- Brock Bowers
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- 12
- accuracy:
- 25
- baseline:
- 25
- position:
- TE
- ranked by:
- receiving yards
- difficulty:
- 1
- the naive guess:
- where he finished last season
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- naive finish:
- 1
- actual finish:
- 10
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- predicted finish:
- 1
- Positional FinishesDrake LondonAtlanta FalconsJan 13, 2026
Drake London to finish top 10 at his position, by receiving yards
“Drake London is a top 10 wide receiver in football.”
Miss · 8Scored 8.33a naive guess scored 0+8.33 skillHow this was scored
- skill:
- 8.33
- player:
- Drake London
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- 12
- accuracy:
- 8.33
- baseline:
- 0
- position:
- WR
- ranked by:
- receiving yards
- difficulty:
- 1
- the naive guess:
- where he finished last season
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- naive finish:
- 4
- actual finish:
- 21
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- predicted finish:
- 10
- Score PredictionsNew England PatriotsJan 13, 2026
New England Patriots 16 — Texans 13
“I think this is gonna be a very low scoring game. Yeah. You know, I'm we're talking, like, sixteen, thirteen type vibes here.”
Close · 79Scored 78.57a naive guess scored 76.26+2.31 skillHow this was scored
- score:
- 16-28
- skill:
- 2.31
- they picked:
- NE
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 78.57
- baseline:
- 76.26
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- actual margin:
- 12
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- naive home margin:
- 2.03
- predicted margin:
- 3
- Game Outcome PicksNew England PatriotsJan 13, 2026
New England Patriots to beat Texans
“I do think it'll be a close game. I do like the Patriots here.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skillHow this was scored
- won:
- NE
- score:
- 16-28
- skill:
- 0
- they picked:
- NE
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive pick:
- NE
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- Game Outcome PicksBuffalo BillsJan 13, 2026
Buffalo Bills to beat Broncos
“I like the Bills here.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-100 skillHow this was scored
- won:
- DEN
- score:
- 30-33
- skill:
- -100
- they picked:
- BUF
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive pick:
- DEN
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- Game Outcome PicksChicago BearsJan 13, 2026
Chicago Bears to beat Rams
“You're going Bears down. Bear down. I love I love this team, man. Bear fucking down.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skillHow this was scored
- won:
- LAR
- score:
- 20-17
- skill:
- 0
- they picked:
- CHI
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- the naive pick:
- CHI
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 0
Aaron Rodgers to move to Pittsburgh Steelers
“Give it a sixty forty right now saying he's coming back. That's what I'll say right now.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
What others said about the same people
- Ethan HurwitzRoster Spot Calls · Jeremiah Pharms Jr.Miss · 0Hurwitz writes that the elevations of Jeremiah Pharms Jr. and Mike Brown likely mean Leonard Taylor III stays a healthy scratch and Joshua Farmer could be one too for the Week 3 game at Jacksonville, and that both elevated players will revert to the practice squad after Sunday.
- Randy GurziRoster Spot Calls · Te'Cory CouchMiss · 0Gurzi predicts the Buffalo Bills' final 53-man roster ahead of Week 1 against Houston, naming every player who makes it, who gets cut, and a few depth-chart outcomes (Damar Hamlin as backup safety, Alec Anderson as a new starter on the offensive line, Shane Buechele back on the practice squad).
- Joe MarinoRoster Spot Calls · Te'Cory CouchMiss · 0Joe Marino gives his final projection of the Buffalo Bills' initial 53-man roster after the preseason finale, naming who makes it, who gets cut, and who lands on injured reserve/PUP, along with several starting-job calls (Kyle Allen as QB2, TJ Sanders starting over Landon Jackson, Maxwell Hairston starting opposite Christian Benford, and Tommy Doman winning the punting job).
- Fox SportsDepth Chart Calls · Michael Penix Jr.Hit · 100Fox Sports states that a healthy Tua Tagovailoa will serve as Atlanta's backup quarterback in Week 3, with Michael Penix Jr. handling the starting duties against Green Bay.
- Bryan DeArdoRoster Spot Calls · Drew AllarHit · 100A CBS Sports piece lays out Pittsburgh's quarterback pecking order: Aaron Rodgers starts, Mason Rudolph is the No. 2, rookie Drew Allar sits at No. 3 and Will Howard is fourth, with the Steelers expected to keep all four quarterbacks on the initial 53-man roster rather than trading Howard.
- Mike MoraitisRoster Spot Calls · Josh BlackwellHit · 100Moraitis names seven Bears as trade candidates before roster cuts, predicting Kiran Amegadjie and Jedrick Wills are on the roster bubble and likely to be traded, while Ozzy Trapilo avoids an injured list, and listing several players as locks for the 53-man roster.
More game outcome picks
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
- Richard ShermanGame Outcome Picks · Green Bay PackersMiss · 0Sherman picked winners and several exact scores across the Week 3 slate, favoring Seattle, San Francisco, Cincinnati, Detroit, Green Bay, Carolina, New Orleans, Baltimore, the Rams, Philadelphia, Buffalo, Kansas City, Minnesota, the Giants, Jacksonville and Houston, and named Kenneth Walker his MVP.
- Bill HuberGame Outcome Picks · Green Bay PackersMiss · 0Huber forecasts the Packers starting 3-4 through seven games — losing at Minnesota and Tampa Bay, beating the Jets and Falcons, losing to the Bears — and finishing the season with about eight wins.
- Jared DubinGame Outcome Picks · Los Angeles RamsHit · 100Dubin picks the Rams to beat the Giants on Monday Night Football, sticking with preseason expectations over Week 1 overreaction. He gives two conditional scores depending on whether Puka Nacua plays: a comfortable 27-17 win if Nacua suits up, and a narrow 17-16 win if he sits.
- Dan OrlovskyGame Outcome Picks · Los Angeles RamsHit · 100Orlovsky said that even without Puka Nacua the Rams would find a way to beat the Giants on Monday night, though he thought the Giants would keep it within a touchdown.
- Patricia TrainaGame Outcome Picks · New York GiantsMiss · 0In her weekly Giants mailbag, Traina said the Giants would beat the Rams if Los Angeles didn't play its best, predicted Aaron Donald wouldn't play a full game Monday night, and said she doesn't expect Paulson Adebo to still be with the Giants in 2027.
- Danny ParkinsGame Outcome Picks · New York GiantsMiss · 0Parkins picked the Giants to beat the Rams outright, backed Jacksonville over Denver, Cincinnati over Houston and Chicago over Minnesota in the chips segment, endorsed Buffalo as the AFC's Super Bowl representative, and predicted Deshaun Watson has started his last NFL game.