Rich Eisen· Dec 29, 2025
Eisen called the 49ers-as-NFC-favorites take an overreaction, picked the Jaguars to beat the Titans and win their division, leaned Ravens over the Steelers in the Week 18 Sunday night game, expects the Bills to beat the Jets even without Josh Allen, sees the Chargers as the AFC's seventh seed, agreed Tyler Shough could win Offensive Rookie of the Year with a good Saints 2026, said Malik Willis will be a starter somewhere next season, and insisted Detroit goes into 2026 with Goff.
“I think the Jaguars will beat the Titans at home and win their division”
said on air, transcribed by us · Overreaction Monday (podcast) · read the original →
10 checkable claims — 3 game outcome picks, 2 depth chart calls, 2 season win totals, 1 award pick, 1 division winner and 1 seeding, byes and home field — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.
It names 10 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
All 10 have settled, averaging 73.2 out of 100, against 74 for a naive guess at the same calls.
Where do you stand? Pick this and every open claim on Picks →
Who this take is about
10 checkable claims in this take
Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.
- Game Outcome PicksBaltimore RavensDec 29, 2025
Baltimore Ravens to beat Steelers
“Who are you picking? In this one? ... I'm my early thoughts would be the Ravens.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-111 skillHow this was scored
- won:
- PIT
- score:
- 24-26
- skill:
- -111
- they picked:
- BAL
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive pick:
- PIT
- difficulty:
- 1.11
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 2
- Game Outcome PicksBuffalo BillsDec 29, 2025
Buffalo Bills to beat Jets
“because I think the Bills, even without Josh Allen, are gonna beat the Jets in their final home game”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skillHow this was scored
- won:
- BUF
- score:
- 8-35
- skill:
- 0
- they picked:
- BUF
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive pick:
- BUF
- difficulty:
- 1.11
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 2
- Game Outcome PicksJacksonville JaguarsDec 29, 2025
Jacksonville Jaguars to beat Titans
“because I think the Jaguars will beat the Titans at home and win their division”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skillHow this was scored
- won:
- JAX
- score:
- 7-41
- skill:
- 0
- they picked:
- JAX
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive pick:
- JAX
- difficulty:
- 1.11
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 2
- Division WinnersJacksonville JaguarsDec 29, 2025
Jacksonville Jaguars to win the division
“I think the Jaguars will beat the Titans at home and win their division and doesn't matter what Houston does against Indianapolis week 18”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+111 skillHow this was scored
- skill:
- 111
- method:
- division winners read off the bracket: the bye teams and the wild-card hosts
- they picked:
- JAX
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- the naive pick:
- HOU
- difficulty:
- 1.11
- the naive guess:
- last season's winner of the same division
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 2
- won the division:
- yes
- Seeding, Byes and Home FieldLos Angeles ChargersDec 29, 2025
Los Angeles Chargers to take the top seed
“I I think they're gonna wind up maybe being the seventh seed in the AFC”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skillHow this was scored
- skill:
- 0
- they picked:
- LAC
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- checked as:
- seeds 5–7 visit a wild-card game — the bracket cannot separate them further
- actual tier:
- visitor
- difficulty:
- 1.11
- the naive guess:
- where they finished last season (visitor)
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- claimed seed:
- 7
- claimed tier:
- visitor
- weeks left when called:
- 2
- Season Win TotalsNew Orleans SaintsDec 29, 2025
New Orleans Saints to finish with 9 wins
“having him over five hundred next season is a tall order ... So I'll I'll say this is not an overreaction right now ... I look at this Saints team as having a a nice 2026.”
Close · 40Scored 40a naive guess scored 85-49.95 skillHow this was scored
- team:
- NO
- naive:
- 6.75
- skill:
- -49.95
- what happened:
- 6
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- 5
- accuracy:
- 40
- baseline:
- 85
- predicted:
- 9
- difficulty:
- 1.11
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 2
- Award PicksTyler ShoughNew Orleans SaintsDec 29, 2025
Tyler Shough to win Offensive Rookie of the Year
“Is is 100% in play. ... So I'll I'll say this is not an overreaction right now. Certainly, when you could see, how Shuck has performed”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skillHow this was scored
- award:
- offensive_rookie_of_the_year
- naive:
- the naive pick was Jayden Daniels, who won it the year before
- skill:
- 0
- player:
- Tyler Shough
- season:
- 2025
- winner:
- Tetairoa McMillan
- correct:
- no
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- difficulty:
- 1.11
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 2
- Depth Chart CallsJared GoffDetroit LionsDec 29, 2025
Jared Goff to be 1st on the depth chart
“They're gonna go into 2026 with golf 100%.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skillHow this was scored
- club:
- DET
- skill:
- 0
- player:
- Jared Goff
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- position:
- QB
- naive slot:
- 1
- actual slot:
- 1
- difficulty:
- 1.11
- measured by:
- passing yards
- the naive guess:
- where he sat last season
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- predicted slot:
- 1
- weeks left when called:
- 2
- Depth Chart CallsMalik WillisDec 29, 2025
Malik Willis to be 1st on the depth chart
“He's gonna be starting somewhere next year. I think that's, without a doubt.”
Hit · 92Scored 91.67a naive guess scored 100-9.25 skillHow this was scored
- club:
- GB
- skill:
- -9.25
- player:
- Malik Willis
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 91.67
- baseline:
- 100
- position:
- QB
- naive slot:
- 2
- actual slot:
- 2
- difficulty:
- 1.11
- measured by:
- passing yards
- the naive guess:
- where he sat last season
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- predicted slot:
- 1
- weeks left when called:
- 2
- Season Win TotalsMinnesota VikingsDec 29, 2025
Minnesota Vikings to finish with 9 wins
“The Vikings might finish above 500.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 55+49.95 skillHow this was scored
- team:
- MIN
- naive:
- 11.25
- skill:
- 49.95
- what happened:
- 9
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- 5
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 55
- predicted:
- 9
- difficulty:
- 1.11
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 2
What others said about the same people
- Thomas MartinezRoster Spot Calls · Patrick HerbertMiss · 0Martinez projects the Chargers' starting lineups on offense and defense for their Week 3 game at Buffalo, with injuries forcing several changes — Oronde Gadsden II at tight end, Trevor Penning at left guard, Jamaree Caldwell at defensive tackle and RJ Mickens at safety — while expecting Ladd McConkey to play and Marquez Valdez-Scantling to debut.
- Randy GurziRoster Spot Calls · Te'Cory CouchMiss · 0Gurzi predicts the Buffalo Bills' final 53-man roster ahead of Week 1 against Houston, naming every player who makes it, who gets cut, and a few depth-chart outcomes (Damar Hamlin as backup safety, Alec Anderson as a new starter on the offensive line, Shane Buechele back on the practice squad).
- Joe MarinoRoster Spot Calls · Te'Cory CouchMiss · 0Joe Marino gives his final projection of the Buffalo Bills' initial 53-man roster after the preseason finale, naming who makes it, who gets cut, and who lands on injured reserve/PUP, along with several starting-job calls (Kyle Allen as QB2, TJ Sanders starting over Landon Jackson, Maxwell Hairston starting opposite Christian Benford, and Tommy Doman winning the punting job).
- Fox SportsRoster Spot Calls · J.J. McCarthyHit · 100FOX Sports projects Kyle McCord as Miami's backup behind starter Malik Willis, Mitchell Trubisky as Tennessee's primary backup behind starter Cam Ward, and J.J. McCarthy making the Vikings' 53-man roster.
- Nathan JahnkeRoster Spot Calls · Ameer AbdullahHit · 100An unsigned PFF preseason recap makes numerous depth-chart, roster and usage projections across the league, based on Week 3 preseason playing time — including Roman Wilson winning Pittsburgh's third receiver job, Luke McCaffrey's roster spot being in danger, Charlie Kolar as the Chargers' top tight end, and Kendre Miller as the Saints' RB2.
- Nathan JahnkeRoster Spot Calls · Elijah SarrattHit · 100PFF's preseason fantasy recap makes a series of depth-chart, roster and usage projections based on final-week preseason snap counts, including Ja'Kobi Lane locking down the Ravens' third receiver role, Luke McCaffrey's roster spot being in danger, Kyle Pitts facing reduced 12-personnel usage, Kendre Miller as the Saints' RB2 and Emmett Johnson as the Chiefs' backup running back.
More game outcome picks
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
- Richard ShermanGame Outcome Picks · Green Bay PackersMiss · 0Sherman picked winners and several exact scores across the Week 3 slate, favoring Seattle, San Francisco, Cincinnati, Detroit, Green Bay, Carolina, New Orleans, Baltimore, the Rams, Philadelphia, Buffalo, Kansas City, Minnesota, the Giants, Jacksonville and Houston, and named Kenneth Walker his MVP.
- Bill HuberGame Outcome Picks · Green Bay PackersMiss · 0Huber forecasts the Packers starting 3-4 through seven games — losing at Minnesota and Tampa Bay, beating the Jets and Falcons, losing to the Bears — and finishing the season with about eight wins.
- Jared DubinGame Outcome Picks · Los Angeles RamsHit · 100Dubin picks the Rams to beat the Giants on Monday Night Football, sticking with preseason expectations over Week 1 overreaction. He gives two conditional scores depending on whether Puka Nacua plays: a comfortable 27-17 win if Nacua suits up, and a narrow 17-16 win if he sits.
- Dan OrlovskyGame Outcome Picks · Los Angeles RamsHit · 100Orlovsky said that even without Puka Nacua the Rams would find a way to beat the Giants on Monday night, though he thought the Giants would keep it within a touchdown.
- Patricia TrainaGame Outcome Picks · New York GiantsMiss · 0In her weekly Giants mailbag, Traina said the Giants would beat the Rams if Los Angeles didn't play its best, predicted Aaron Donald wouldn't play a full game Monday night, and said she doesn't expect Paulson Adebo to still be with the Giants in 2027.
- Danny ParkinsGame Outcome Picks · New York GiantsMiss · 0Parkins picked the Giants to beat the Rams outright, backed Jacksonville over Denver, Cincinnati over Houston and Chicago over Minnesota in the chips segment, endorsed Buffalo as the AFC's Super Bowl representative, and predicted Deshaun Watson has started his last NFL game.