David Harrison· Mar 16, 2026
In his first post-free-agency mock draft, Harrison has the Commanders trade back with Cincinnati and select Carnell Tate at No. 10, Chris Johnson at No. 41, Jagger Burton at No. 147, Trey Moore at No. 187, VJ Payne at No. 209 and Vincent Anthony Jr. in the seventh round.
“Carnell Tate, wide receiver out of Ohio State, come becomes the first pick in our first mock draft Monday following free agency.”
said on air, transcribed by us · Locked On Commanders (podcast) · read the original →
8 checkable claims — 6 mock draft picks and 2 depth chart calls — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.
It names 9 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
6 of 8 have settled so far, averaging 43.5 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess at the same calls.
Of the 1 unsettled call enough other pundits have weighed in on, this one lands below the rest of the room.
Where this call stands in the room
Chig Okonkwo · 2026 season6 calls from 4 pundits between 1 and 3. David Harrison said 1. the room's median is 1. not settled yet
Every dot is a call somebody published on the same question. Where the dots land says where this take sits, not whether it is right — nothing here is settled yet. Hover a dot for the name and number; click it to read that take.
Their call against what happened
overall pickTheir call against what actually happened.
Where do you stand? Pick this and every open claim on Picks →
Who this take is about
8 checkable claims in this take
Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.
Vincent Anthony to be picked “seventh round” (picks 217–257)
“We wrap it all up with a potential big edge of the future, you know, developmental seventh round guy, Vincent Anthony Junior, edge rusher out of Duke.”
Miss · 0Scored 0 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 95 against a shuffle’s 50+45 skillHow this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 45
- player:
- Vincent Anthony
- season:
- 2026
- zero at:
- undrafted
- outcome:
- went undrafted in 2026; later signed with KC
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- undrafted
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 0
- predicted pick:
- seventh round (picks 217–257)
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 95
Chris Johnson to be picked at number 41
“Second round, forty first overall pick is when we take Chris Johnson... Chris Johnson, cornerback out of San Diego State”
Close · 55Scored 54.53 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 95 against a shuffle’s 50+45 skillHow this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 45
- player:
- Chris Johnson
- season:
- 2026
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 54.53
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 27
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 54.53
- predicted pick:
- 41
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 95
- Mock Draft PicksTrey MooreWashington CommandersMar 16, 2026
Trey Moore to be picked at number 187
“sixth round, pick number one eighty seven linebacker Trey Moore out of Texas comes in”
Miss · 8Scored 8.46 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 95 against a shuffle’s 50+45 skillHow this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 45
- player:
- Trey Moore
- season:
- 2026
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 8.46
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 130
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 8.46
- predicted pick:
- 187
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 95
Carnell Tate to be picked at number 10
“which means that pick number 10, we take wide receiver Carnell Tate in the first round”
Close · 77Scored 77.11 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 100 against a shuffle’s 50+50 skillHow this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 50
- player:
- Carnell Tate
- season:
- 2026
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 77.11
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 4
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 77.11
- predicted pick:
- 10
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 100
Jager Burton to be picked at number 147
“Jagger Burton, center out of Kentucky is sitting there... he's sitting there at one forty seven for us to take, and we absolutely take Jagger Burton”
Close · 77Scored 77.11 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 100 against a shuffle’s 50+50 skillHow this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 50
- player:
- Jager Burton
- season:
- 2026
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 77.11
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 153
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 77.11
- predicted pick:
- 147
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 100
Victor Payne to be picked at number 209
“pick two zero nine, we come back, Vijay Payne... VJ Payne, safety out of Kansas State”
Close · 44Scored 43.91 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 100 against a shuffle’s 50+50 skillHow this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 50
- player:
- Victor Payne
- season:
- 2026
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 43.91
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 228
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 43.91
- predicted pick:
- 209
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 100
Chig Okonkwo to be 1st on the depth chart
“Tight end position, Chikokonkwo, I think, still comes in as kinda your top guy.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
- Depth Chart CallsTrey AmosWashington CommandersMar 16, 2026
Trey Amos to be 1st on the depth chart
“Trey Amos as your starting. Opposite boundary corner.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
What others said about the same people
- Nathan JahnkeRoster Spot Calls · Luke McCaffreyHit · 100An unsigned PFF preseason recap makes numerous depth-chart, roster and usage projections across the league, based on Week 3 preseason playing time — including Roman Wilson winning Pittsburgh's third receiver job, Luke McCaffrey's roster spot being in danger, Charlie Kolar as the Chargers' top tight end, and Kendre Miller as the Saints' RB2.
- Jacob WestendorfRoster Spot Calls · Jager BurtonHit · 100In his final 53-man roster projection for the Packers, Westendorf names every player he expects to make the initial roster, places Luke Musgrave and Micah Parsons on PUP, projects Anthony Campbell as the final cut headed to the practice squad, and sets out several depth-chart calls (Love over Taylor, Jacobs as the bell cow, Franklin/Cooper starting at linebacker, Cox and Dennis-Sutton as the No. 2 edge tandem in Week 1).
- Nathan JahnkeRoster Spot Calls · Luke McCaffreyHit · 100PFF's preseason fantasy recap makes a series of depth-chart, roster and usage projections based on final-week preseason snap counts, including Ja'Kobi Lane locking down the Ravens' third receiver role, Luke McCaffrey's roster spot being in danger, Kyle Pitts facing reduced 12-personnel usage, Kendre Miller as the Saints' RB2 and Emmett Johnson as the Chiefs' backup running back.
- Bill HuberRoster Spot Calls · Jager BurtonHit · 100Ahead of final cuts, Huber assigns Packers players probability tiers for making the 53-man roster, calling 40 players locks and another 12 more likely than not to stick, while projecting Keisean Nixon as a Week 1 starting cornerback, Tyrod Taylor as the backup QB, Skyy Moore as the returner, and Micah Parsons, Luke Musgrave and Jordon Riley opening the season on PUP.
- Philip HughesRoster Spot Calls · Terry McLaurinHit · 100Hughes surveys Washington's remaining roster questions, asserting that Terry McLaurin and Stefon Diggs are locks for the 53-man roster and that Antonio Williams has essentially secured a spot as the third receiver, while Percy Butler's standing improved after safety cuts.
- Philip HughesRoster Spot Calls · Frankie LuvuHit · 100Hughes projects Washington's initial 53-man roster ahead of the final preseason game, naming every player he expects to make the team by position group, and slots Athan Kaliakmanis as the No. 3 quarterback behind Jayden Daniels and Marcus Mariota.
More mock draft picks
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
- Lance ZierleinMock Draft Picks · Jeremiyah LoveHit · 100Zierlein laid out his final mock draft: Jeremiah Love at No. 3 to Arizona, Sonny Styles at No. 4 to Robert Saleh's team, and Caleb Downs to the Giants at No. 5. He also called Styles the only first-round linebacker in the class and said Ty Simpson is a lock to be a first-round pick, most likely to Arizona.
- Nick ShookMock Draft Picks · Max IheanachorHit · 88Shook walks through his full first-round mock draft, assigning a prospect to every pick from No. 1 to No. 32, headlined by Fernando Mendoza to the Raiders, David Bailey to the Jets and Jeremiah Love to the Cardinals in the top three.
- Gregg RosenthalMock Draft Picks · K.C. ConcepcionClose · 68Rosenthal disagrees most with Casey Concepcion being left out of the first round, arguing he could go as high as the top 15 and certainly won't last past receiver-needy teams in the late twenties.
- Daniel JeremiahMock Draft Picks · Keyron CrawfordHit · 81In discussing teams without first-round picks, Jeremiah projected specific Day 2 picks: Clemson WR Antonio Williams to the Falcons at 48, Texas Tech LB Jacob Rodriguez to the Colts in the second round, Oklahoma edge R Mason Thomas to the Packers at 52, and Auburn edge Keiroon Crawford to the Broncos at 62. He also expects Riley Leonard to open as the Colts' starting QB and Travis Hunter to play cornerback full time in Jacksonville.
- Jeff CavanaughMock Draft Picks · Lorenzo StylesMiss · 1Streaming from the NFL Combine, Jeff pegged safety Dylan Thienemann's draft range at roughly picks 20-35, said LSU safety AJ Halsey would cost a second- or third-round pick, and insisted Sonny Styles' brother would not be a top-50 selection despite a fast 40.
- Scott BogmanMock Draft Picks · Olaivavega IoaneClose · 71He gave David Bailey to Tennessee at 4, Sonny Styles to Washington at 7, Caleb Downs to Cincinnati at 10, Carnell Tate to the Rams at 13, Denzel Boston to the Jets at 16, Kayden McDonald to Carolina at 19, Vega Ioane to the Chargers at 22, Peter Woods to Chicago at 25, Emmanuel Pregnon to Houston at 28 and Romello Height to Denver at 31, and insisted both Bailey and Downs are top-10 locks.