The host of the Week 2 gambling segment (unnamed in the transcript) laid out five picks, predicting New England beats Miami, Jacksonville wins outright at Cincinnati 27-21, Arizona handles Carolina, Kansas City beats Philadelphia 27-24 at home, and Atlanta wins at Minnesota.

5 checkable claims from this

Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.

• Game Outcome PicksArizona CardinalsSep 12, 2025

  “I just I think Carolina is really, really bad... I will lay the six and a half with Arizona.”

  Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skill
  How this was scored

  won:

  ARI

  score:

  22-27

  skill:

  0

  they picked:

  ARI

  season:

  2025

  accuracy:

  100

  baseline:

  100

  naive pick:

  ARI

  difficulty:

  1.94

  weeks in the season:

  18

  weeks left when called:

  17

  Think this is wrong?

• Score PredictionsKansas City ChiefsSep 12, 2025

  “my game pick for Casey Philly is twenty seven to twenty four Kansas City... the Chiefs plus one in a game, I expect them to win, outright”

  Scored 50a naive guess scored 47.69+4.49 skill
  How this was scored

  score:

  20-17

  skill:

  4.49

  they picked:

  KC

  season:

  2025

  accuracy:

  50

  baseline:

  47.69

  difficulty:

  1.94

  weeks in the season:

  18

  actual margin:

  3

  weeks left when called:

  17

  naive home margin:

  2.03

  predicted margin:

  3

  Think this is wrong?

• Game Outcome PicksAtlanta FalconsSep 12, 2025

  “It would not shock me at all if Atlanta wins this game... And so I like Atlanta in this spot indoors, short week”

  Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+194 skill
  How this was scored

  won:

  ATL

  score:

  22-6

  skill:

  194

  they picked:

  ATL

  season:

  2025

  accuracy:

  100

  baseline:

  0

  naive pick:

  MIN

  difficulty:

  1.94

  weeks in the season:

  18

  weeks left when called:

  17

  Think this is wrong?

• Score PredictionsJacksonville JaguarsSep 12, 2025

  “I think Jacksonville wins this game outright... I think Jacksonville wins this game twenty seven, twenty one. I will take the Jags getting three points.”

  Scored 45.24a naive guess scored 95.3-97.13 skill
  How this was scored

  score:

  27-31

  skill:

  -97.13

  they picked:

  JAX

  season:

  2025

  accuracy:

  45.24

  baseline:

  95.3

  difficulty:

  1.94

  weeks in the season:

  18

  actual margin:

  4

  weeks left when called:

  17

  naive home margin:

  2.03

  predicted margin:

  6

  Think this is wrong?

• Game Outcome PicksNew England PatriotsSep 12, 2025

  “I like New England getting the one point in Miami... I think this is an absolute, true must win for New England... and I will take New England plus a point.”

  Not settled yet. This is graded once the season it describes has finished.

  Think this is wrong?