Ian Rapoport· Feb 17, 2026
Rapoport said he believes the Raiders will draft quarterback Fernando Mendoza with the No. 1 overall pick, expects Miami to part ways with Tua Tagovailoa, thinks Malik Willis will have a strong market, and would be surprised if Kenneth Walker or Breece Hall received the franchise tag. He also predicted the Raiders' offensive line will play better with better coaching, that Mendoza likely won't throw at the combine, and that free agency will be trade-heavy.
“It's it's draft for Nelme Doza, which I I do believe will happen.”
said on air, transcribed by us · The Rich Eisen Show (podcast) · read the original →
2 checkable claims — 1 mock draft pick and 1 trade and signing call — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.
It names 4 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
1 of 2 have settled so far, averaging 100 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess at the same calls.
Their call against what happened
overall pick1They said
1What happened
Their call against what actually happened.
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Who this take is about
2 checkable claims in this take
Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.
Fernando Mendoza to be picked at number 1
“the Raiders do it at one overall? Is it Fernando Mendoza coming in?... It's it's draft for Nelme Doza, which I I do believe will happen.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 50How this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- player:
- Fernando Mendoza
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 1
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 100
- predicted pick:
- 1
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- only one pick — no order to score
Tua Tagovailoa to move to Miami Dolphins
“feels like Miami is probably parting ways with two of them”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
What others said about the same people
- Chris BroussardGame Outcome Picks · Las Vegas RaidersHit · 100Broussard picked the Bills to beat the Chargers in a competitive, higher-scoring game, said the Chiefs will rout the Dolphins, and for upset alert parlayed the Patriots over the Jaguars and the Raiders over the Saints. He also restated his Cowboys-versus-Ravens Super Bowl matchup pick.
- Tyler DeSenaRoster Spot Calls · Kevin ColemanHit · 100DeSena expects Chris Bell to function as Miami's X-receiver, with Caleb Douglas as the deep-threat Z and Malik Washington in the slot, and considers Bell, Douglas, Washington and fifth-round rookie Kevin Coleman locks to make the 53-man roster.
- Alain PoupartRoster Spot Calls · Keith Cooper Jr.Miss · 0Poupart's third 53-man roster projection of 2026 for the Dolphins names which players make the roster and which are cut at each position group.
- Mike MoraitisRoster Spot Calls · Andre Jones Jr.Hit · 100Moraitis expects Andre Jones Jr. to hold a spot on Miami's 53-man roster after being signed off Buffalo's practice squad, with a significant special teams role under coordinator Chris Tabor.
- Scott KennedyRoster Spot Calls · Tua TagovailoaHit · 100Kennedy reports that Atlanta is expected to keep three quarterbacks on its 53-man roster: Tua Tagovailoa, Michael Penix Jr., and undrafted rookie Jack Strand.
- Alain PoupartRoster Spot Calls · Jalen TolbertHit · 100Previewing the Dolphins' preseason finale and roster cutdown, Poupart states Malik Willis is locked in as the starting quarterback, Mark Gronowski is effectively gone, and identifies Greg Dulcich and Will Kacmarek as the only certainties at tight end while treating several receivers as settled roster locks.
More mock draft picks
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
- Lance ZierleinMock Draft Picks · Jeremiyah LoveHit · 100Zierlein laid out his final mock draft: Jeremiah Love at No. 3 to Arizona, Sonny Styles at No. 4 to Robert Saleh's team, and Caleb Downs to the Giants at No. 5. He also called Styles the only first-round linebacker in the class and said Ty Simpson is a lock to be a first-round pick, most likely to Arizona.
- Nick ShookMock Draft Picks · Max IheanachorHit · 88Shook walks through his full first-round mock draft, assigning a prospect to every pick from No. 1 to No. 32, headlined by Fernando Mendoza to the Raiders, David Bailey to the Jets and Jeremiah Love to the Cardinals in the top three.
- Gregg RosenthalMock Draft Picks · K.C. ConcepcionClose · 68Rosenthal disagrees most with Casey Concepcion being left out of the first round, arguing he could go as high as the top 15 and certainly won't last past receiver-needy teams in the late twenties.
- Daniel JeremiahMock Draft Picks · Keyron CrawfordHit · 81In discussing teams without first-round picks, Jeremiah projected specific Day 2 picks: Clemson WR Antonio Williams to the Falcons at 48, Texas Tech LB Jacob Rodriguez to the Colts in the second round, Oklahoma edge R Mason Thomas to the Packers at 52, and Auburn edge Keiroon Crawford to the Broncos at 62. He also expects Riley Leonard to open as the Colts' starting QB and Travis Hunter to play cornerback full time in Jacksonville.
- Daniel JeremiahMock Draft Picks · Carnell TateHit · 92Jeremiah says Denver, not Kansas City, will be the clear favorite in the AFC West this season; he also puts Carnell Tate sixth and Monroe Freeling twentieth on his prospect board, mocks Tate to Cleveland at No. 6, and expects Georgia receiver Branch to be a Day 2 pick after a strong pro day.
- Bucky BrooksMock Draft Picks · Carnell TateHit · 81In a mock draft covering the first 14 picks, Brooks made the odd-numbered selections: Fernando Mendoza to the Raiders at No. 1, a Miami offensive lineman to Arizona at No. 3, Caleb Downs to the Giants at No. 5, Ohio State's Arvell Reese to Washington at No. 7, Carnell Tate to Kansas City at No. 9, tight end Kenyon Sadiq to Miami at No. 11, and Spencer Fano to the Rams at No. 13.