Simon Hunter· Jul 18, 2025
Simon ranked twelve quarterbacks based on past performance — Mahomes first, Jalen Hurts second, Josh Allen third, with Dak Prescott seventh and Herbert outside the top 10 at 12 and Purdy at 14. He also called the Cowboys an undervalued, slept-on team and said he'd bet the Chiefs to win the AFC West over the hyped Chargers.
“I had Baker at ten... CJ at number eight... number seven, the man that's left for dead... Dak.”
said on air or in an interview · The Herd with Colin Cowherd (podcast) · read the original →
The page this came from has changed since we captured it on Aug 5, 2026. The quote and evidence above are from our capture, not from what the page says today.
3 checkable claims — 1 division winner, 1 surprise team call and 1 top player list — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.
It names 2 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
2 of 3 have settled so far, averaging 27.5 out of 100, against 25 for a naive guess at the same calls.
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Who this take is about
3 checkable claims in this take
Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.
- Division WinnersKansas City ChiefsJul 18, 2025
Kansas City Chiefs to win the division
“You're getting minus one ten of the chiefs in that division running to the window to bet that one.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skillHow this was scored
- skill:
- 0
- method:
- division winners read off the bracket: the bye teams and the wild-card hosts
- they picked:
- KC
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- the naive pick:
- KC
- difficulty:
- 2
- the naive guess:
- last season's winner of the same division
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- won the division:
- no
- Top Player ListsJul 18, 2025
“my number twelve was Herbert... Golf [eleven]... I had Baker at ten... So I have him in nine [Daniels]. CJ at number eight. number seven... Dak... Number six I got Joe Burrow... I have Stafford number five... number four went with Lamar... I put Josh on number three... [Hurts] number two... obviously number one Chad, no doubt about it. Mahomes... I do have pretty at fourteen”
Close · 55Scored 54.95a naive guess scored 50+9.89 skillHow this was scored
- naive:
- a coin-flip ordering scores 50
- skill:
- 9.89
- placed:
- 13
- season:
- 2025
- players:
- 13
- accuracy:
- 54.95
- baseline:
- 50
- by position:
- QB 13: 54.95
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- could not place:
- 0
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- Surprise Team CallsDallas CowboysJul 18, 2025
Dallas Cowboys to beat expectations
“So their team that Chad knows I've been talking about for about four months now, is just an undervalued team that's gonna be slept on... they should have a really good offense and a good defense.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
What others said about the same people
- Randy GurziRoster Spot Calls · Reddy StewardMiss · 0Gurzi predicts the Cowboys' 17-man practice squad, naming each player he expects Dallas to sign, including a surprise addition of released Giants tackle Evan Neal. He also predicts Jaydon Blue will be claimed off waivers by another team and that Sam Williams will land elsewhere.
- Jeff CavanaughRoster Spot Calls · Curtis RobinsonMiss · 0Building his projected Cowboys 53-man roster on defense, Jeff keeps five interior linemen (Kenny Clark, Quentin, Tito Obonia, LT Overton, Bullard), six edge rushers including Von Miller, Malachi Lawrence and Marist Liufau while cutting Sam Williams, four linebackers with Jayshawn Barham starting, six corners including rookie Devin Moore, and four safeties including Marquise Bell.
- Charean WilliamsRoster Spot Calls · Israel AbanikandaMiss · 0Williams expects the Cowboys to elevate practice squad running back Israel Abanikanda to the active roster for Sunday's season opener after Malik Davis's hip injury.
- Randy GurziRoster Spot Calls · Nick LeverettMiss · 0Gurzi writes that Tyler Smith's thumb surgery will land him on IR to start the season with a return around midseason, that capable backup T.J. Bass will step in along the interior line, and that practice squad lineman Nick Leverett should be elevated for Week 1 and could be added to the active roster.
- Nathan JahnkeRoster Spot Calls · Brashard SmithMiss · 0An unsigned PFF preseason recap makes numerous depth-chart, roster and usage projections across the league, based on Week 3 preseason playing time — including Roman Wilson winning Pittsburgh's third receiver job, Luke McCaffrey's roster spot being in danger, Charlie Kolar as the Chargers' top tight end, and Kendre Miller as the Saints' RB2.
- Nathan JahnkeRoster Spot Calls · Brashard SmithMiss · 0PFF's preseason fantasy recap makes a series of depth-chart, roster and usage projections based on final-week preseason snap counts, including Ja'Kobi Lane locking down the Ravens' third receiver role, Luke McCaffrey's roster spot being in danger, Kyle Pitts facing reduced 12-personnel usage, Kendre Miller as the Saints' RB2 and Emmett Johnson as the Chiefs' backup running back.
More division winners
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
- Daniel DiBerardinisDivision Winners · Atlanta FalconsMiss · 0Danny D predicts Sonny Styles goes in the top ten (maybe top five), doesn't think Ty Simpson goes before late first round, says Kenyon Sadiq lands with the Rams at 13, and picks the Falcons to win the NFC South while naming the Bengals an AFC bounce-back team. He also gives a Final Four of Michigan, Florida, Purdue and Arizona with Michigan winning.
- Colin CowherdDivision Winners · New York GiantsMiss · 0Cowherd projects the NFC East with the Giants winning the division ahead of Philadelphia, Washington and Dallas, pegging the Cowboys as a six- or seven-win team. He also expects Malik Willis to land a big free-agent deal, Kayvon Thibodeaux to be moved, and Baltimore to lose Isaiah Likely, and he floats the Rams reaching on Ty Simpson late in round one.
- Colin CowherdDivision Winners · Los Angeles ChargersMiss · 0Cowherd unveiled his top 10 NFL teams entering next season, with Seattle first, the Rams second and the Chiefs tenth, and separately picked the Chargers to win the AFC West.
- Colin CowherdDivision Winners · Baltimore RavensMiss · 0Cowherd likes Jacksonville, Chicago and Pittsburgh (with DK Metcalf back) in the wild-card round, ranks the league's head coaches with McVay first and Ben Johnson seventh, and predicts Lamar Jackson has about two strong years left. He also names the Rams as a possible team to draft a receiver and floats next year's draft having seven first-round quarterbacks.
- Danny ParkinsDivision Winners · Baltimore RavensMiss · 0Parkins lays the points with the Eagles and Cowboys, takes Baltimore to beat Pittsburgh and win the AFC North, picks Carolina over Tampa Bay and Seattle over San Francisco, and says he'd probably pick the Rams to come out of the NFC.
- Rich EisenDivision Winners · Jacksonville JaguarsHit · 100Eisen forecast the Week 18 results and the entire wild-card field: Buccaneers over Panthers but Carolina still gets in as the 5 seed when Atlanta beats New Orleans, 49ers over Seahawks, Ravens over Steelers, Jaguars beating Tennessee to win the AFC South, and six wild-card matchups (Seahawks-Panthers, Bills-Jaguars, Texans-Ravens, Packers-Bears, Chargers-Patriots, Rams-Eagles), with Houston upsetting Baltimore. He also tabbed Saints rookie Tyler Shough as a possible Offensive Rookie of the Year.