Field Yates· Feb 27, 2026
Yates pegged David Bailey as a top-four pick, called Jeremiah Love clearly the best running back in the class with a draft range from No. 3 overall to the Chiefs at No. 9, put Karnell Tate atop his receiver board, projected Jordan Tyson as a top-15 pick, and expected Brennan Thompson to run in the 4.2s. He also sees both Miami's Mauigoa and Utah's Spencer Fano taken inside the top 15, with Mauigoa having a chance to be the first offensive lineman off the board.
“I think David Bailey reinforced yesterday. He's going somewhere between pick two and pick four.”
said on air, transcribed by us · NFL Live (podcast) · read the original →
9 checkable claims — 5 mock draft picks, 3 position order calls and 1 combine measurement — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.
It names 9 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
4 of 9 have settled so far, averaging 91.8 out of 100, against 27 for a naive guess at the same calls.
Where do you stand? Pick this and every open claim on Picks →
Who this take is about
9 checkable claims in this take
Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.
- Combine MeasurementsBrenen ThompsonFeb 27, 2026
Brenen Thompson to post four two speed at the combine
“But we're talking four two speed, Brennan Thompson, and he's not even being discussed as a first round pick.”
Close · 67Scored 67.27a naive guess scored 22.7+44.57 skillHow this was scored
- off:
- 0.06
- drill:
- forty time
- naive:
- the average WR (4.48, from 283 results)
- scale:
- credit halves every 0.1 — one standard deviation for a WR
- skill:
- 44.57
- player:
- Brenen Thompson
- result:
- 4.26
- season:
- 2025
- combine year:
- 2026
- accuracy:
- 67.27
- baseline:
- 22.7
- predicted:
- 4.2
- sigmas out:
- 0.57
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 0
Combine results via Pro-Football-Reference.com.
- Position Order CallsJeremiyah LoveFeb 27, 2026
Jeremiyah Love to be 1st running back off the board
“I think make him the best running back in this class by miles... Yeah. He's clearly the best running back, one of the best players.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 25.97+74.03 skillHow this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- naming one of the 13 at random averages 25.97
- skill:
- 74.03
- player:
- Jeremiyah Love
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- credit halves every two places
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 25.97
- position:
- running back
- class size:
- 13
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- actual order:
- 1
- predicted order:
- 1
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- Mock Draft PicksJordyn TysonFeb 27, 2026
Jordyn Tyson to be picked “top 15 pick” (picks 1–15)
“I have a hard time imagining that he's not a top 15 pick based off of the talent and the character as well.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 50How this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- player:
- Jordyn Tyson
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 8
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 100
- predicted pick:
- top 15 pick (picks 1–15)
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- only one pick — no order to score
- Position Order CallsCarnell TateFeb 27, 2026
Carnell Tate to be 1st wide receiver off the board
“I got 42 wide receivers for the draftable grade this year, but Carnell Tate does stand at the very top”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 9.48+90.52 skillHow this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- naming one of the 36 at random averages 9.48
- skill:
- 90.52
- player:
- Carnell Tate
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- credit halves every two places
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 9.48
- position:
- wide receiver
- class size:
- 36
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- actual order:
- 1
- predicted order:
- 1
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- Mock Draft PicksDavid BaileyFeb 27, 2026
David Bailey to be picked “somewhere between pick two and pick four”
“I think David Bailey reinforced yesterday. He's going somewhere between pick two and pick four... with teams from two to four in the Jets, Cardinals, and Titans that definitely need pass rush help, wouldn't surprise me if that is his range.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
Francis Mauigoa to be a chance to be the first offensive lineman taken offensive lineman off the board
“So now we know as a chance, I think, to be the first offensive tackle first offensive lineman taken”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
- Mock Draft PicksJeremiyah LoveFeb 27, 2026
Jeremiyah Love to be picked “as high as number three overall or maybe slides to the Chiefs at number nine”
“a much more important philosophical question that I think dictates whether he goes as high as number three overall or maybe slides to the Chiefs at number nine”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
- Mock Draft PicksCC Maui NoahMiami DolphinsFeb 27, 2026
CC Maui Noah to be picked “the first 15 picks”
“I think both of these guys have a chance to be taken in the first 15 picks.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
- Mock Draft PicksSpencer FanoFeb 27, 2026
Spencer Fano to be picked “the first 15 picks”
“I think both of these guys have a chance to be taken in the first 15 picks.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
What others said about the same people
- Patricia TrainaRoster Spot Calls · Francis MauigoaHit · 100Traina projects the Giants' initial 53-man roster position by position, naming who makes the team and who lands on the practice squad, including keeping Tyrone Tracy Jr. and Evan Neal (with a possible trade), Dalen Cambre over Braxton Berrios, Lucas Patrick as backup center, and Dominic Zvada as the kicker.
- Tyler DeSenaRoster Spot Calls · Kevin ColemanHit · 100DeSena expects Chris Bell to function as Miami's X-receiver, with Caleb Douglas as the deep-threat Z and Malik Washington in the slot, and considers Bell, Douglas, Washington and fifth-round rookie Kevin Coleman locks to make the 53-man roster.
- Alain PoupartRoster Spot Calls · Keith Cooper Jr.Miss · 0Poupart's third 53-man roster projection of 2026 for the Dolphins names which players make the roster and which are cut at each position group.
- Mike MoraitisRoster Spot Calls · Andre Jones Jr.Hit · 100Moraitis expects Andre Jones Jr. to hold a spot on Miami's 53-man roster after being signed off Buffalo's practice squad, with a significant special teams role under coordinator Chris Tabor.
- Alain PoupartRoster Spot Calls · Jalen TolbertHit · 100Previewing the Dolphins' preseason finale and roster cutdown, Poupart states Malik Willis is locked in as the starting quarterback, Mark Gronowski is effectively gone, and identifies Greg Dulcich and Will Kacmarek as the only certainties at tight end while treating several receivers as settled roster locks.
- Alain PoupartRoster Spot Calls · Chris JohnsonHit · 100Poupart sorts the Dolphins roster into tiers ahead of the 53-man cutdown, naming 28 players as locks to make the roster and eight more as borderline locks who more than likely make it. He also expects Quinn Ewers to be the No. 2 quarterback behind Malik Willis, and says Darrell Baker Jr. and Storm Duck will start the season on PUP.
More mock draft picks
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
- Nick ShookMock Draft Picks · Max IheanachorHit · 88Shook walks through his full first-round mock draft, assigning a prospect to every pick from No. 1 to No. 32, headlined by Fernando Mendoza to the Raiders, David Bailey to the Jets and Jeremiah Love to the Cardinals in the top three.
- Gregg RosenthalMock Draft Picks · K.C. ConcepcionClose · 68Rosenthal disagrees most with Casey Concepcion being left out of the first round, arguing he could go as high as the top 15 and certainly won't last past receiver-needy teams in the late twenties.
- Daniel JeremiahMock Draft Picks · Keyron CrawfordHit · 81In discussing teams without first-round picks, Jeremiah projected specific Day 2 picks: Clemson WR Antonio Williams to the Falcons at 48, Texas Tech LB Jacob Rodriguez to the Colts in the second round, Oklahoma edge R Mason Thomas to the Packers at 52, and Auburn edge Keiroon Crawford to the Broncos at 62. He also expects Riley Leonard to open as the Colts' starting QB and Travis Hunter to play cornerback full time in Jacksonville.
- Jeff CavanaughMock Draft Picks · Lorenzo StylesMiss · 1Streaming from the NFL Combine, Jeff pegged safety Dylan Thienemann's draft range at roughly picks 20-35, said LSU safety AJ Halsey would cost a second- or third-round pick, and insisted Sonny Styles' brother would not be a top-50 selection despite a fast 40.
- Scott BogmanMock Draft Picks · Olaivavega IoaneClose · 71He gave David Bailey to Tennessee at 4, Sonny Styles to Washington at 7, Caleb Downs to Cincinnati at 10, Carnell Tate to the Rams at 13, Denzel Boston to the Jets at 16, Kayden McDonald to Carolina at 19, Vega Ioane to the Chargers at 22, Peter Woods to Chicago at 25, Emmanuel Pregnon to Houston at 28 and Romello Height to Denver at 31, and insisted both Bailey and Downs are top-10 locks.
- Steve MenschMock Draft Picks · Caleb LomuClose · 62Making the even-numbered picks in the mock, he sent Arvell Reese to the Jets at No. 2, Spencer Fano to the Giants at 5, Jordan Tyson to the Saints at 8, a Tennessee cornerback to Miami at 11, Keldric Faulk to Baltimore at 14, Akheem Mesidor to Dallas at 20, Kenyon Sadiq to Philadelphia at 23, Caleb Banks to Buffalo at 26, Ty Simpson to the Rams at 29 and Chris Johnson to Seattle at 32, plus Caleb Lomu to Detroit at 17.