Middlekauff calls this the Bills' year — they beat the Chiefs next week and win the Super Bowl — and reorders the league's quarterbacks with Mahomes first, then Josh Allen, Burrow and Lamar Jackson.

3 checkable claims from this

Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.

• Super Bowl PicksBuffalo BillsJan 20, 2025

  “I think the Bills are gonna win next week, and I think they're gonna win the super Bowl.”

  Scored 0a naive guess scored 50-50 skill
  How this was scored

  skill:

  -50

  they picked:

  BUF

  season:

  2024

  accuracy:

  0

  baseline:

  50

  champion:

  PHI

  runner up:

  KC

  naive pick:

  KC

  difficulty:

  1

  weeks in the season:

  18

  weeks left when called:

  0

  Think this is wrong?

• Top Player ListsJan 20, 2025

  “you could make the argument because of the last lack of play off success, we got to reorder this is it goes Mahomes, Josh, then Joe Burrow and then Lamar Jackson.”

  Scored 10a naive guess scored 50-40 skill
  How this was scored

  naive:

  a coin-flip ordering scores 50

  skill:

  -40

  placed:

  4

  season:

  2024

  players:

  4

  accuracy:

  10

  baseline:

  50

  by position:

  QB 4: 10

  difficulty:

  1

  weeks in the season:

  18

  could not place:

  0

  weeks left when called:

  0

  Think this is wrong?

• Game Outcome PicksBuffalo BillsJan 20, 2025

  “I do think this is the Bill's year. I think the Bills are gonna win next week”

  Not settled yet. This is graded once the season it describes has finished.

  Think this is wrong?