Kirk Herbstreit· Sep 11, 2026
Herbstreit made a full slate of Week 1 picks — Lions, Ravens, Bears, Bills, Buccaneers, Jaguars, Titans, Eagles, Packers and Cowboys — and also said he still thinks Seattle is the team to beat in the NFC West.
“The Jags are gonna win, but it's gonna be closer than eight and a half.”
said on air, transcribed by us · The Pat McAfee Show (podcast) · read the original →
11 checkable claims — 10 game outcome picks and 1 division winner — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.
It names 11 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
10 of 11 have settled so far, averaging 60 out of 100, against 60 for a naive guess at the same calls.
Where do you stand? Pick this and every open claim on Picks →
Who this take is about
The games in this take
- Ravens at Colts 24 calls
- Browns at Jaguars 26 calls
- Jets at Titans 25 calls
- Saints at Lions 22 calls
- Buccaneers at Bengals 31 calls
- Bears at Panthers 28 calls
- Bills at Texans 46 calls
- Commanders at Eagles 31 calls
- Packers at Vikings 41 calls
- Cowboys at Giants 42 calls
11 checkable claims in this take
Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.
- Game Outcome PicksDallas CowboysSep 11, 2026
Dallas Cowboys to win
“Herbie. I'm going with Shadi there. Cowboys.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-200 skillHow this was scored
- won:
- NYG
- score:
- 20-28
- skill:
- -200
- they picked:
- DAL
- season:
- 2026
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive pick:
- NYG
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- Game Outcome PicksChicago BearsSep 11, 2026
Chicago Bears to win
“I'm gonna go with Ben Johnson, and I think they're gonna get to cover on the road to open it up, cover the three.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+200 skillHow this was scored
- won:
- CHI
- score:
- 59-37
- skill:
- 200
- they picked:
- CHI
- season:
- 2026
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- the naive pick:
- CAR
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- Game Outcome PicksGreen Bay PackersSep 11, 2026
Green Bay Packers to win
“Kirby, who do you like? Green Bay. For sure. Green Bay.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-200 skillHow this was scored
- won:
- MIN
- score:
- 22-39
- skill:
- -200
- they picked:
- GB
- season:
- 2026
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive pick:
- MIN
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- Game Outcome PicksTennessee TitansSep 11, 2026
Tennessee Titans to win
“I'm going, Titans at home. Homer. I'm doing it.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skillHow this was scored
- won:
- NYJ
- score:
- 23-10
- skill:
- 0
- they picked:
- TEN
- season:
- 2026
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- the naive pick:
- TEN
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- Game Outcome PicksPhiladelphia EaglesSep 11, 2026
Philadelphia Eagles to win
“Let me go with Philly. Okay. Philly, we need to cover. Six.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skillHow this was scored
- won:
- PHI
- score:
- 22-24
- skill:
- 0
- they picked:
- PHI
- season:
- 2026
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive pick:
- PHI
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- Game Outcome PicksJacksonville JaguarsSep 11, 2026
Jacksonville Jaguars to win
“I'm going with the Jags. I'm gonna the Jags are gonna win, but it's gonna be closer in eight and a half.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skillHow this was scored
- won:
- JAX
- score:
- 10-34
- skill:
- 0
- they picked:
- JAX
- season:
- 2026
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive pick:
- JAX
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- Game Outcome PicksBaltimore RavensSep 11, 2026
Baltimore Ravens to win
“But I'm going Baltimore here.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+200 skillHow this was scored
- won:
- BAL
- score:
- 41-23
- skill:
- 200
- they picked:
- BAL
- season:
- 2026
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- the naive pick:
- IND
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- Game Outcome PicksDetroit LionsSep 11, 2026
Detroit Lions to win
“I feel like Detroit coming off a disappointing year. They wanna make a statement early... I like Detroit there.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skillHow this was scored
- won:
- DET
- score:
- 30-31
- skill:
- 0
- they picked:
- DET
- season:
- 2026
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive pick:
- DET
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- Game Outcome PicksBuffalo BillsSep 11, 2026
Buffalo Bills to win
“I want the Bills to win because I have them the next week opening up their new stadium against the Lions. So I'm gonna go with just pulling for the Bills here.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+200 skillHow this was scored
- won:
- BUF
- score:
- 36-31
- skill:
- 200
- they picked:
- BUF
- season:
- 2026
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- the naive pick:
- HOU
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- Game Outcome PicksTampa Bay BuccaneersSep 11, 2026
Tampa Bay Buccaneers to win
“I don't think the Bengals are allowed to win in the month of September... So I'm definitely going with Tampa Bay.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-200 skillHow this was scored
- won:
- CIN
- score:
- 27-33
- skill:
- -200
- they picked:
- TB
- season:
- 2026
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive pick:
- CIN
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- Division WinnersSeattle SeahawksSep 11, 2026
Seattle Seahawks to win the division
“I still like Seattle... I still think Seattle could be the team to beat.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
What others said about the same people
- Tyler SullivanDepth Chart Calls · Drew LockMiss · 0In an unsigned Week 2 odds roundup, the piece states that with Sam Darnold hurt, Drew Lock will likely start at quarterback for Seattle against Arizona.
- Chris BrockmanTrade and Signing Calls · Baker MayfieldHit · 100Brockman's season-preview overreactions: Fernando Mendoza becomes an Offensive Rookie of the Year finalist; Dak Prescott wins MVP and the Cowboys win the Super Bowl; Jesse Minter's Ravens win the AFC North; C.J. Stroud leads Houston to the AFC's No. 1 seed; Jonathan Taylor approaches 2,000 rushing yards; Baker Mayfield wins the NFC South, goes 12-5 and reaches the NFC title game while landing a $60 million-per-year deal; and Aaron Rodgers throws 35-plus touchdowns as the Steelers go 11-6 and win the North.
- Mike MoraitisTrade and Signing Calls · DaRon BlandHit · 100Moraitis names five Cowboys he expects to be playing their final season opener in Dallas in 2026: George Pickens (likely tag-and-trade or departure), Malik Hooker, Luke Schoonmaker, DeMarvion Overshown and DaRon Bland.
- John ShipleyRoster Spot Calls · Jack KiserMiss · 0Shipley projects a full 16-player (plus one international/exemption spot) Jaguars practice squad for 2026, naming specific players at each position he expects to land there.
- Jon GrudenTrade and Signing Calls · Baker MayfieldHit · 100The former Buccaneers head coach predicted that Tampa Bay and Baker Mayfield are closer on a new contract than believed and that an extension will get done.
- Joel CorryTrade and Signing Calls · Baker MayfieldHit · 100The unsigned CBS Sports analysis lays out the contract it believes Tampa Bay will have to give Mayfield at minimum: a two-year extension averaging $50 million per year with $110 million in guarantees and a no-trade clause.
More game outcome picks
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
- Danny ParkinsGame Outcome Picks · Denver BroncosMiss · 0Parkins picked the Giants to upset Dallas, the Steelers to beat Atlanta by two scores, the Bears to beat Carolina, the Bills to beat Houston and Denver to beat Kansas City outright; he also said Justin Herbert will win an MVP and had the Bengals as AFC North champs.
- Eric ManginiGame Outcome Picks · Denver BroncosMiss · 0Mangini's upset alert was Washington over Philadelphia; in the chips segment he backed Houston, Dallas and Denver; and his Monday headline was Cincinnati mauling Tampa Bay, with Joe Burrow as his MVP and the Bengals as AFC North champs.
- Shannon SharpeGame Outcome Picks · Denver BroncosMiss · 0Sharpe predicted Matthew Stafford would throw four touchdowns in the Thursday night game against the 49ers, picked Tampa Bay to beat Cincinnati at home, took the Broncos over Kansas City on Monday night with Bonitto getting 2.5 sacks, and expects big fantasy value from kicker Brandon Aubrey.
- Tyler SullivanGame Outcome Picks · Denver BroncosMiss · 0An unsigned CBS Sports piece flags five Week 1 underdogs as upset candidates: the 49ers over the Rams in Melbourne, the Texans over the Bills, the Panthers over the Bears, the Jets over the Titans, and the Broncos over the Chiefs on Monday night.
- Mitch GoldichGame Outcome Picks · Denver BroncosMiss · 0Goldich's Week 1 straight-up picks for all 16 games.
- John PluymGame Outcome Picks · Kansas City ChiefsHit · 100Pluym's Week 1 straight-up picks for all 16 games.