Joe Marino· Apr 12, 2026
Marino ranks the 2026 edge rusher class for the Bills' draft board, putting Ruben Bain first with first-round grades on Bain, David Bailey and Malachi Lawrence, and assigns round-by-round grades down through LT Overton. He predicts Bailey goes in the top 10 even though he doesn't see him as that caliber of prospect.
“So my number one edge is Ruben Bayne out of Miami, and I have first round grades on Reuben Bain, David Bailey out of Texas Tech, and Malachi Lawrence out of Central Florida.”
said on air, transcribed by us · Locked On Bills (podcast) · read the original →
7 checkable claims — 6 mock draft picks and 1 top player list — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.
It names 7 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
5 of 7 have settled so far, averaging 65.2 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess at the same calls.
Their call against what happened
overall pickTheir call against what actually happened.
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Who this take is about
7 checkable claims in this take
Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.
- Mock Draft PicksDerek MooreApr 12, 2026
Derek Moore to be picked “day three grade, probably later in the fourth round” (picks 101–140)
“So to me, day three grade, probably probably later in the fourth round is where I would value Derek Moore.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 50How this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- player:
- Derek Moore
- season:
- 2026
- zero at:
- undrafted
- outcome:
- went undrafted in 2026; has not appeared on an NFL roster
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- undrafted
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 0
- predicted pick:
- day three grade, probably later in the fourth round (picks 101–140)
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- only one pick — no order to score
- Mock Draft PicksAkheem MesidorMiami DolphinsApr 12, 2026
Akheem Mesidor to be picked “late first, early second round” (picks 1–64)
“So I think of him as a as a late first, early second round, type prospect.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 50How this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- player:
- Akheem Mesidor
- season:
- 2026
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 22
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 100
- predicted pick:
- late first, early second round (picks 1–64)
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- only one pick — no order to score
- Mock Draft PicksRomello HeightApr 12, 2026
Romello Height to be picked “fourth round type prospect” (picks 101–140)
“I think of him as an, as a fourth round type prospect.”
Miss · 26Scored 26.11a naive guess scored 50How this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- player:
- Romello Height
- season:
- 2026
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 26.11
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 70
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 26.11
- predicted pick:
- fourth round type prospect (picks 101–140)
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- only one pick — no order to score
- Mock Draft PicksDavid BaileyApr 12, 2026
David Bailey to be picked “top 10” (picks 1–10)
“I would say David Bailey's probably gonna go in the top 10.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 50How this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- player:
- David Bailey
- season:
- 2026
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 2
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 100
- predicted pick:
- top 10 (picks 1–10)
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- only one pick — no order to score
- Mock Draft PicksMalachi LawrenceApr 12, 2026
Malachi Lawrence to be picked “first round” (picks 1–32)
“a first round grade, easy first round grade for me”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 50How this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- player:
- Malachi Lawrence
- season:
- 2026
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 23
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 100
- predicted pick:
- first round (picks 1–32)
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- only one pick — no order to score
- Top Player ListsApr 12, 2026
“So my number one edge is Ruben Bayne out of Miami, and I have first round grades on Reuben Bain, David Bailey out of Texas Tech, and Malachi Lawrence out of Central Florida... In terms of late first, early second round, I have Keldrick Falk out of Auburn and then Akeem Mesador out of Miami. Second round grades, Gabe Yakis or Aches out of Illinois... Zion Young out of Missouri, Cassius Howell out of Texas a and m, our Mason Thomas out of Oklahoma, TJ Parker out of Clemson... a late two early three on Deshaun Barham out of Michigan... third round grade out of Kieran Crawford out of Auburn and Joshua Joseph's out of Tennessee. Fourth round grades on Romello Height and Derek Moore... a late fourth, early fifth on Danny Dennis Sutton out of Penn State, and then a fifth round grade out of l on LT Overton out of Alabama.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
- Mock Draft PicksZion YoungApr 12, 2026
Zion Young to be picked “day two grade”
“So I think even more of a as a day two grade, good good football player”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
What others said about the same people
- Tyler DeSenaRoster Spot Calls · Kevin ColemanHit · 100DeSena expects Chris Bell to function as Miami's X-receiver, with Caleb Douglas as the deep-threat Z and Malik Washington in the slot, and considers Bell, Douglas, Washington and fifth-round rookie Kevin Coleman locks to make the 53-man roster.
- Alain PoupartRoster Spot Calls · Keith Cooper Jr.Miss · 0Poupart's third 53-man roster projection of 2026 for the Dolphins names which players make the roster and which are cut at each position group.
- Mike MoraitisRoster Spot Calls · Andre Jones Jr.Hit · 100Moraitis expects Andre Jones Jr. to hold a spot on Miami's 53-man roster after being signed off Buffalo's practice squad, with a significant special teams role under coordinator Chris Tabor.
- Alain PoupartRoster Spot Calls · Jalen TolbertHit · 100Previewing the Dolphins' preseason finale and roster cutdown, Poupart states Malik Willis is locked in as the starting quarterback, Mark Gronowski is effectively gone, and identifies Greg Dulcich and Will Kacmarek as the only certainties at tight end while treating several receivers as settled roster locks.
- Jeff CavanaughRoster Spot Calls · Malachi LawrenceHit · 100Building his projected Cowboys 53-man roster on defense, Jeff keeps five interior linemen (Kenny Clark, Quentin, Tito Obonia, LT Overton, Bullard), six edge rushers including Von Miller, Malachi Lawrence and Marist Liufau while cutting Sam Williams, four linebackers with Jayshawn Barham starting, six corners including rookie Devin Moore, and four safeties including Marquise Bell.
- Brian PeacockRoster Spot Calls · Romello HeightHit · 100Peacock lays out his projected 53-man roster for the 49ers, position by position: three specialists, three quarterbacks (including Curtis Rourke), five running backs, six receivers (cutting Christian Kirk), three tight ends (cutting Braden Willis), nine offensive linemen, ten defensive linemen (with Mykel Williams on PUP), five linebackers, six cornerbacks and four safeties. He also predicts a new player will take center snaps in preseason week three.
More mock draft picks
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
- Lance ZierleinMock Draft Picks · Jeremiyah LoveHit · 100Zierlein laid out his final mock draft: Jeremiah Love at No. 3 to Arizona, Sonny Styles at No. 4 to Robert Saleh's team, and Caleb Downs to the Giants at No. 5. He also called Styles the only first-round linebacker in the class and said Ty Simpson is a lock to be a first-round pick, most likely to Arizona.
- Nick ShookMock Draft Picks · Max IheanachorHit · 88Shook walks through his full first-round mock draft, assigning a prospect to every pick from No. 1 to No. 32, headlined by Fernando Mendoza to the Raiders, David Bailey to the Jets and Jeremiah Love to the Cardinals in the top three.
- Gregg RosenthalMock Draft Picks · K.C. ConcepcionClose · 68Rosenthal disagrees most with Casey Concepcion being left out of the first round, arguing he could go as high as the top 15 and certainly won't last past receiver-needy teams in the late twenties.
- Daniel JeremiahMock Draft Picks · Keyron CrawfordHit · 81In discussing teams without first-round picks, Jeremiah projected specific Day 2 picks: Clemson WR Antonio Williams to the Falcons at 48, Texas Tech LB Jacob Rodriguez to the Colts in the second round, Oklahoma edge R Mason Thomas to the Packers at 52, and Auburn edge Keiroon Crawford to the Broncos at 62. He also expects Riley Leonard to open as the Colts' starting QB and Travis Hunter to play cornerback full time in Jacksonville.
- Daniel JeremiahMock Draft Picks · Carnell TateHit · 92Jeremiah says Denver, not Kansas City, will be the clear favorite in the AFC West this season; he also puts Carnell Tate sixth and Monroe Freeling twentieth on his prospect board, mocks Tate to Cleveland at No. 6, and expects Georgia receiver Branch to be a Day 2 pick after a strong pro day.
- Bucky BrooksMock Draft Picks · Carnell TateHit · 81In a mock draft covering the first 14 picks, Brooks made the odd-numbered selections: Fernando Mendoza to the Raiders at No. 1, a Miami offensive lineman to Arizona at No. 3, Caleb Downs to the Giants at No. 5, Ohio State's Arvell Reese to Washington at No. 7, Carnell Tate to Kansas City at No. 9, tight end Kenyon Sadiq to Miami at No. 11, and Spencer Fano to the Rams at No. 13.