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Matt Miller· Feb 21, 2026

Miller expects a consequential Chiefs offseason with Chris Jones potentially traded, predicts Kyler Murray gets traded, and offers draft-board opinions: Jeremiah Love as his top overall player, Makai Lemon as his top receiver ranked eighth overall with a ceiling around pick five, Keldrick Faulk around 20th on his board, plus combine expectations for Reuben Bain's and David Bailey's weights and Malik Muhammad's 40 time.

“I think we're gonna see Kyler Murray probably get traded this offseason.”

said on air, transcribed by us · KC Sports Network (podcast) · read the original →

9 checkable claims — 3 combine measurements, 3 mock draft picks, 2 trade and signing calls and 1 position order call — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.

It names 6 players and teams, each linked to their own record.

7 of 9 have settled so far, averaging 64.1 out of 100, against 50.4 for a naive guess at the same calls.

Where this call stands in the room

Makai Lemon · 2025 season · positional finish

4 calls from 3 pundits between 1 positional finish and 3 positional finish. Matt Miller said 1 positional finish. the room's median is 1 positional finish. what happened: 3 positional finish

Matt Miller — 1 positional finishthe room — 4 calls from 3 punditsmedian 1 positional finishwhat happened — 3 positional finish

Every dot is a call somebody published on the same question, before the answer existed. The bar is what actually happened. Hover a dot for the name and number; click it to read that take.

Where do you stand? Pick this and every open claim on Picks →

Who this take is about

9 checkable claims in this take

Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.

  • “I have him at five eleven, one ninety five”

    Hit · 87Scored 86.96a naive guess scored 73+13.96 skill
    How this was scored
    off:
    3
    drill:
    weight lbs
    naive:
    the average WR (198.76, from 336 results)
    scale:
    credit halves every 14.88 — one standard deviation for a WR
    skill:
    13.96
    player:
    Makai Lemon
    result:
    192
    season:
    2025
    combine year:
    2026
    accuracy:
    86.96
    baseline:
    73
    predicted:
    195
    sigmas out:
    0.2
    difficulty:
    1
    weeks in the season:
    18
    weeks left when called:
    0

    Combine results via Pro-Football-Reference.com.

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  • Rueben Bain to post come in light, like, two sixty, two sixty five at the combine

    “I always expect Bane to come in light, like, two sixty, two sixty five.”

    Hit · 83Scored 82.62a naive guess scored 59.18+23.44 skill
    How this was scored
    off:
    3
    drill:
    weight lbs
    naive:
    the average EDGE (254.76, from 149 results)
    scale:
    credit halves every 10.89 — one standard deviation for a EDGE
    skill:
    23.44
    player:
    Rueben Bain
    result:
    263
    season:
    2025
    combine year:
    2026
    accuracy:
    82.62
    baseline:
    59.18
    predicted:
    260
    sigmas out:
    0.28
    difficulty:
    1
    weeks in the season:
    18
    weeks left when called:
    0

    Combine results via Pro-Football-Reference.com.

    Think this is wrong?

  • Makai Lemon to post five eleven at the combine

    “I have him at five eleven, one ninety five, and the those my height weights, I don't pull offline. I get them from scouts.”

    Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 57.87+42.13 skill
    How this was scored
    off:
    0
    drill:
    height in
    naive:
    the average WR (72.82, from 336 results)
    scale:
    credit halves every 2.31 — one standard deviation for a WR
    skill:
    42.13
    player:
    Makai Lemon
    result:
    71
    season:
    2025
    combine year:
    2026
    accuracy:
    100
    baseline:
    57.87
    predicted:
    71
    sigmas out:
    0
    difficulty:
    1
    weeks in the season:
    18
    weeks left when called:
    0

    Combine results via Pro-Football-Reference.com.

    Think this is wrong?

  • Makai Lemon to be 1st receiver off the board

    “he's my he's my top receiver. He's my top 10.”

    Close · 50Scored 50a naive guess scored 12.84+37.16 skill
    How this was scored
    draft:
    2026
    naive:
    naming one of the 36 at random averages 12.84
    skill:
    37.16
    player:
    Makai Lemon
    season:
    2025
    zero at:
    credit halves every two places
    accuracy:
    50
    baseline:
    12.84
    position:
    receiver
    class size:
    36
    difficulty:
    1
    weeks in the season:
    18
    actual order:
    3
    predicted order:
    1
    weeks left when called:
    0

    Think this is wrong?

  • Makai Lemon to be picked at number 8

    “Oh, man. Five? Five, six? I had him at eight overall.”

    Close · 59Scored 59.46 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 100 against a shuffle’s 50+50 skill
    How this was scored
    draft:
    2026
    naive:
    a shuffled mock scores 50
    skill:
    50
    player:
    Makai Lemon
    season:
    2025
    zero at:
    32
    accuracy:
    59.46
    baseline:
    50
    actual pick:
    20
    difficulty:
    1
    weeks in the season:
    18
    pick accuracy:
    59.46
    predicted pick:
    8
    weeks left when called:
    0
    mock ordering score:
    100

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  • Malik Muhammad to be picked “a second round guy” (picks 33–64)

    “I think if Malik Mohammed can hit four fives, it's gonna be a really, really good number for him. That's gonna help his stock, and he could be a second round guy.”

    Miss · 7Scored 7.43 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 100 against a shuffle’s 50+50 skill
    How this was scored
    draft:
    2026
    naive:
    a shuffled mock scores 50
    skill:
    50
    player:
    Malik Muhammad
    season:
    2025
    zero at:
    32
    accuracy:
    7.43
    baseline:
    50
    actual pick:
    124
    difficulty:
    1
    weeks in the season:
    18
    pick accuracy:
    7.43
    predicted pick:
    a second round guy (picks 33–64)
    weeks left when called:
    0
    mock ordering score:
    100

    Think this is wrong?

  • Keldric Faulk to be picked at number 20

    “I think I have him as, like, right around 20 overall on my board.”

    Close · 62Scored 62.09 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 100 against a shuffle’s 50+50 skill
    How this was scored
    draft:
    2026
    naive:
    a shuffled mock scores 50
    skill:
    50
    player:
    Keldric Faulk
    season:
    2025
    zero at:
    32
    accuracy:
    62.09
    baseline:
    50
    actual pick:
    31
    difficulty:
    1
    weeks in the season:
    18
    pick accuracy:
    62.09
    predicted pick:
    20
    weeks left when called:
    0
    mock ordering score:
    100

    Think this is wrong?

  • Chris Jones to move

    “you said, hey. Yeah. You know, Chris Jones might find his way on the trading block this year... So I wouldn't I wouldn't say that if it wasn't something that I had heard or something I believe.”

    Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.

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  • Kyler Murray to move

    “I think we're gonna see Kyler Murray probably get traded this offseason, and that's gonna hammer home that point of money is fake in the NFL.”

    Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.

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What others said about the same people

More combine measurements

The same kind of call, about other players and teams.

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