Nick Wright· Oct 19, 2025
On the MVP race, Wright argues the award will come down to Baker Mayfield or Patrick Mahomes, with Josh Allen and Matthew Stafford as the real competition, and rules out Daniel Jones, Aaron Rodgers, Jordan Love and Dak Prescott.
“So right now, to me, Patrick and Baker, their real competition would... The real competition demons is Josh and Stafford.”
said on air or in an interview · The Herd with Colin Cowherd (podcast) · read the original →
The page this came from has changed since we captured it on Aug 5, 2026. The quote and evidence above are from our capture, not from what the page says today.
2 checkable claims — 2 award picks — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.
It names 4 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
All 2 have settled, averaging 0 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess at the same calls.
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Who this take is about
2 checkable claims in this take
Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.
- Award PicksBaker MayfieldTampa Bay BuccaneersOct 19, 2025
Baker Mayfield to win MVP
“I have Baker in the preseason at thirty five to one on hard Rock... I think Baker or Patrick to be able to get either one of them to win MVP at only minus one point fifty is a pretty solid bet.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skillHow this was scored
- award:
- mvp
- naive:
- the naive pick was Josh Allen, who won it the year before
- skill:
- 0
- player:
- Baker Mayfield
- season:
- 2025
- winner:
- Matthew Stafford
- correct:
- no
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- difficulty:
- 1.67
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 12
- Award PicksPatrick MahomesKansas City ChiefsOct 19, 2025
Patrick Mahomes to win MVP
“Every year I bet Patrick to win MVP... I think Baker or Patrick to be able to get either one of them to win MVP at only minus one point fifty is a pretty solid bet.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skillHow this was scored
- award:
- mvp
- naive:
- the naive pick was Josh Allen, who won it the year before
- skill:
- 0
- player:
- Patrick Mahomes
- season:
- 2025
- winner:
- Matthew Stafford
- correct:
- no
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- difficulty:
- 1.67
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 12
What others said about the same people
- Nathan JahnkeRoster Spot Calls · Brashard SmithMiss · 0An unsigned PFF preseason recap makes numerous depth-chart, roster and usage projections across the league, based on Week 3 preseason playing time — including Roman Wilson winning Pittsburgh's third receiver job, Luke McCaffrey's roster spot being in danger, Charlie Kolar as the Chargers' top tight end, and Kendre Miller as the Saints' RB2.
- Nathan JahnkeRoster Spot Calls · Brashard SmithMiss · 0PFF's preseason fantasy recap makes a series of depth-chart, roster and usage projections based on final-week preseason snap counts, including Ja'Kobi Lane locking down the Ravens' third receiver role, Luke McCaffrey's roster spot being in danger, Kyle Pitts facing reduced 12-personnel usage, Kendre Miller as the Saints' RB2 and Emmett Johnson as the Chiefs' backup running back.
- Matt MateraRoster Spot Calls · Josh WilliamsMiss · 0Matera suggests Tampa Bay may release short-yardage back Sean Tucker in favor of Josh Williams, using Irving and Gainwell as their one-two punch.
- Darren SmithRoster Spot Calls · Felix Anudike-UzomahHit · 100Smith picks L.J. Snead over Kristian Fulton to stick on the roster, believes the defensive lineman (FAU) is a lock to make the team, and states firmly that Patrick Mahomes will start under center in Week 1.
- JC PearsonRoster Spot Calls · Jaden HicksHit · 100Pearson puts Kristian Fulton among the Chiefs' top four corners who make the team, says the defensive lineman (FAU) has secured his roster spot, and believes Jaden Hicks has played his way onto the roster.
- Chris ClarkRoster Spot Calls · Garrett NussmeierHit · 100Clark says Benson and Nussmeier will make the 53 (with the Chiefs keeping three QBs), Harrison Butker will remain the kicker all season, and Andrew Armstrong will be cut for lack of a return role.
More award picks
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
- Jourdan RodrigueAward Picks · Penei SewellMiss · 0Rodrigue picked Patrick Mahomes for MVP, Jared Verse for Defensive Player of the Year, Ja'Marr Chase for Offensive Player of the Year, Mike Vrabel for Coach of the Year, TreVeyon Henderson for Offensive Rookie of the Year and Abdul Carter for Defensive Rookie of the Year, with Jesse Minter for Assistant Coach of the Year and Penei Sewell for Protector of the Year.
- Brandon SneideAward Picks · Drake MayeMiss · 0Snyder picks the Seahawks to beat the Patriots 31-23 in Super Bowl 60, believing Seattle pulls away late, and says Drake Maye will finish second in MVP voting behind Matthew Stafford.
- Chris BroussardAward Picks · Cooper KuppMiss · 0Broussard picked New England to beat Seattle 24-21, with Drake May winning Super Bowl MVP, and named Cooper Kupp as his dark horse MVP.
- Eric ManginiAward Picks · Drake MayeMiss · 0Mangini picked the Patriots 23-20 with Drake May as Super Bowl MVP, and earlier named Kayshon Boutte ("Kaeshawn Booty") as his dark horse MVP.
- Danny ParkinsAward Picks · Jaxon Smith-NjigbaMiss · 0Parkins picked Seattle to win 27-16 with Jaxon Smith-Njigba as Super Bowl MVP.
- Willie ColonAward Picks · Sam DarnoldMiss · 0Colon picked the Seahawks to win 24-14 with Sam Darnold as Super Bowl MVP.