Joel Klatt· Nov 19, 2025
Klatt said Texas will not make the College Football Playoff, picked Oregon to beat USC by 10-13 points, predicted Lane Kiffin will leave Ole Miss for Florida, and forecast big NFL draft outcomes for Arvell Reese, Caleb Downs and Fernando Mendoza.
“Mendoza is going to be easily a top three pick, maybe the top pick in the entire NFL draft.”
said on air or in an interview · The Herd with Colin Cowherd (podcast) · read the original →
The page this came from has changed since we captured it on Aug 5, 2026. The quote and evidence above are from our capture, not from what the page says today.
3 checkable claims — 3 mock draft picks — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.
It names 3 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
All 3 have settled, averaging 95.8 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess at the same calls.
Their call against what happened
overall picktop three pick (picks 1–3)They said
5What happened
Their call against what actually happened.
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Who this take is about
3 checkable claims in this take
Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.
- Mock Draft PicksArvell ReeseNov 19, 2025
Arvell Reese to be picked “top three pick” (picks 1–3)
“I think rvel Reese is playing himself into a top three pick in college in the NFL draft”
Hit · 92Scored 91.7a naive guess scored 50How this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- player:
- Arvell Reese
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 91.7
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 5
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 91.7
- predicted pick:
- top three pick (picks 1–3)
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- only one pick — no order to score
- Mock Draft PicksFernando MendozaNov 19, 2025
Fernando Mendoza to be picked “top three pick, maybe the top pick” (picks 1–3)
“Mendoza is going to be easily a top three pick, maybe the top pick in the entire NFL draft.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 50How this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- player:
- Fernando Mendoza
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 1
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 100
- predicted pick:
- top three pick, maybe the top pick (picks 1–3)
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- only one pick — no order to score
- Mock Draft PicksCaleb DownsNov 19, 2025
Caleb Downs to be picked “top ten pick” (picks 1–10)
“Downs is still behind him, who's probably a top a, top top tick, top ten excuse me pick in the NFL draft”
Hit · 96Scored 95.76a naive guess scored 50How this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- player:
- Caleb Downs
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 95.76
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 11
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 95.76
- predicted pick:
- top ten pick (picks 1–10)
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- only one pick — no order to score
What others said about the same people
- Patricia TrainaRoster Spot Calls · Arvell ReeseHit · 100Traina projects the Giants' initial 53-man roster position by position, naming who makes the team and who lands on the practice squad, including keeping Tyrone Tracy Jr. and Evan Neal (with a possible trade), Dalen Cambre over Braxton Berrios, Lucas Patrick as backup center, and Dominic Zvada as the kicker.
- Nick ShookMock Draft Picks · Fernando MendozaHit · 100Shook walks through his full first-round mock draft, assigning a prospect to every pick from No. 1 to No. 32, headlined by Fernando Mendoza to the Raiders, David Bailey to the Jets and Jeremiah Love to the Cardinals in the top three.
- Shannon SharpeProspect vs Prospect Calls · Fernando MendozaHit · 100Sharpe expects Myles Garrett, now with the Rams, to remain dominant and post at least 14-15 sacks, and he also thinks Micah Parsons will again reach double-digit sacks. He predicts the Dolphins win only two games this season, and says Jeremiah Smith won't go ahead of Mendoza at the top of the draft.
- nthony Darelle "Booger" McFarlandCombine Measurements · Arvell ReeseHit · 100McFarland projected Ohio State's Arbel Reese to measure in at roughly 6-4 and 240-245 pounds at the combine, and argued Cincinnati and Trey Hendrickson will go their separate ways this offseason.
- Colin CowherdMock Draft Picks · Fernando MendozaHit · 100Cowherd is high on Fernando Mendoza, calling him a first-round prospect who fits none of the bust profiles, and expects Kirk Cousins to open the season as the starter. Among his five bold predictions he has Justin Herbert winning multiple playoff games and Caleb Williams winning MVP.
- Jaime EisnerMock Draft Picks · Fernando MendozaHit · 100A seven-round Raiders mock draft projecting Fernando Mendoza first overall to Las Vegas and nine additional picks, including Denzel Boston in Round 2 and A.J. Haulcy in Round 3.
More mock draft picks
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
- Lance ZierleinMock Draft Picks · Jeremiyah LoveHit · 100Zierlein laid out his final mock draft: Jeremiah Love at No. 3 to Arizona, Sonny Styles at No. 4 to Robert Saleh's team, and Caleb Downs to the Giants at No. 5. He also called Styles the only first-round linebacker in the class and said Ty Simpson is a lock to be a first-round pick, most likely to Arizona.
- Nick ShookMock Draft Picks · Max IheanachorHit · 88Shook walks through his full first-round mock draft, assigning a prospect to every pick from No. 1 to No. 32, headlined by Fernando Mendoza to the Raiders, David Bailey to the Jets and Jeremiah Love to the Cardinals in the top three.
- Gregg RosenthalMock Draft Picks · K.C. ConcepcionClose · 68Rosenthal disagrees most with Casey Concepcion being left out of the first round, arguing he could go as high as the top 15 and certainly won't last past receiver-needy teams in the late twenties.
- Daniel JeremiahMock Draft Picks · Keyron CrawfordHit · 81In discussing teams without first-round picks, Jeremiah projected specific Day 2 picks: Clemson WR Antonio Williams to the Falcons at 48, Texas Tech LB Jacob Rodriguez to the Colts in the second round, Oklahoma edge R Mason Thomas to the Packers at 52, and Auburn edge Keiroon Crawford to the Broncos at 62. He also expects Riley Leonard to open as the Colts' starting QB and Travis Hunter to play cornerback full time in Jacksonville.
- Daniel JeremiahMock Draft Picks · Carnell TateHit · 92Jeremiah says Denver, not Kansas City, will be the clear favorite in the AFC West this season; he also puts Carnell Tate sixth and Monroe Freeling twentieth on his prospect board, mocks Tate to Cleveland at No. 6, and expects Georgia receiver Branch to be a Day 2 pick after a strong pro day.
- Bucky BrooksMock Draft Picks · Carnell TateHit · 81In a mock draft covering the first 14 picks, Brooks made the odd-numbered selections: Fernando Mendoza to the Raiders at No. 1, a Miami offensive lineman to Arizona at No. 3, Caleb Downs to the Giants at No. 5, Ohio State's Arvell Reese to Washington at No. 7, Carnell Tate to Kansas City at No. 9, tight end Kenyon Sadiq to Miami at No. 11, and Spencer Fano to the Rams at No. 13.