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TJ Jefferson· Aug 29, 2025

Jefferson picked Micah Parsons to out-sack any two Cowboys, and ordered the AFC West as Chiefs, Broncos, Chargers, Raiders, saying all four teams finish with winning records and three make the playoffs.

“I got the chargers third, the broncos second. And until, you know, Patrick Mahomes doesn't exist anymore on a football field, I'm sticking with the Chiefs.”

said on air, transcribed by us · The Rich Eisen Show (podcast) · read the original →

2 checkable claims — 1 division winner and 1 power ranking — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.

All 2 have settled, averaging 35 out of 100, against 30 for a naive guess at the same calls.

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Who this take is about

2 checkable claims in this take

Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.

  • Kansas City Chiefs to win the division

    “I'm sticking with the Chiefs.”

    Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skill
    How this was scored
    skill:
    0
    method:
    division winners read off the bracket: the bye teams and the wild-card hosts
    they picked:
    KC
    season:
    2025
    accuracy:
    0
    baseline:
    0
    the naive pick:
    KC
    difficulty:
    2
    the naive guess:
    last season's winner of the same division
    weeks in the season:
    18
    weeks left when called:
    18
    won the division:
    no

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  • Power RankingsAug 29, 2025

    “I don't mean any disrespect to Raider nation, but I got you guys coming in fourth... I got the chargers third, the broncos second... I'm sticking with the Chiefs.”

    Close · 70Scored 70a naive guess scored 60+20 skill
    How this was scored
    skill:
    20
    method:
    spearman
    season:
    2025
    accuracy:
    70
    baseline:
    60
    difficulty:
    2
    weeks in the season:
    18
    teams ranked:
    4
    weeks left when called:
    18

    Think this is wrong?

What others said about the same people

More division winners

The same kind of call, about other players and teams.

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