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Alain Poupart· Sep 18, 2026

Answering a mailbag ahead of the Dolphins-49ers game, Poupart says logic points to Miami losing because San Francisco is the far better team, while allowing that upsets happen. He also lays out what would have to happen for a Dolphins win (Achane running wild or the defense intercepting Brock Purdy).

“All logic suggests the Dolphins are going to lose because the 49ers simply are a much better team, but upsets happen all the time in the NFL and at some point it’s Miami that’s going to produce one of those.”

published in writing · Sports Illustrated · read the original →

One checkable claim, graded on its own against what actually happened.

The call scored 100 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess at the same calls.

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Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.

  • Game Outcome PicksSan Francisco 49ersSep 18, 2026

    San Francisco 49ers to beat Dolphins

    “All logic suggests the Dolphins are going to lose because the 49ers simply are a much better team”

    Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skill
    How this was scored
    won:
    SF
    score:
    13-35
    skill:
    0
    they picked:
    SF
    season:
    2026
    accuracy:
    100
    baseline:
    100
    the naive pick:
    SF
    difficulty:
    1.94
    weeks in the season:
    18
    weeks left when called:
    17

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