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Chris Brockman· Mar 3, 2025

Brockman floats a series of overreactions: the Titans won't make the first overall pick because someone trades up, at least six quarterbacks and running backs combined go in round one, Shedeur Sanders falls out of the top 10, the Rams win the NFC West, the Commanders become the team to beat in the NFC, and Sam Darnold leaves Minnesota for $50 million a year.

“the Titans won't be making the first overall pick. Someone's gonna move up.”

said on air, transcribed by us · Overreaction Monday (podcast) · read the original →

5 checkable claims — 1 conference champion, 1 division winner, 1 mock draft pick, 1 team draft slot call and 1 trade and signing call — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.

It names 5 players and teams, each linked to their own record.

All 5 have settled, averaging 60 out of 100, against 25.4 for a naive guess at the same calls.

Where do you stand? Pick this and every open claim on Picks →

Who this take is about

5 checkable claims in this take

Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.

  • Trade and Signing CallsSam DarnoldMar 3, 2025

    Sam Darnold to move

    “Sam Darnold... Not coming back to the Vikings, and he's gonna get $50,000,000 a year in his new deal.”

    Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+200 skill
    How this was scored
    skill:
    200
    player:
    Sam Darnold
    season:
    2025
    claimed:
    he leaves
    was with:
    MIN
    accuracy:
    100
    baseline:
    0
    difficulty:
    2
    the naive guess:
    he stays where he is
    weeks in the season:
    18
    ended up with:
    SEA
    weeks left when called:
    18

    Think this is wrong?

  • Conference ChampionsWashington CommandersMar 3, 2025

    Washington Commanders to reach the Super Bowl

    “Adding Deebo puts the commanders as the team to beat in the NFC.”

    Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skill
    How this was scored
    skill:
    0
    they picked:
    WAS
    season:
    2025
    accuracy:
    0
    baseline:
    0
    champions:
    NE,SEA
    difficulty:
    2
    the naive guess:
    last season's conference champions
    weeks in the season:
    18
    weeks left when called:
    18
    reached the Super Bowl:
    no
    lost the conference final:
    no

    Think this is wrong?

  • Division WinnersLos Angeles RamsMar 3, 2025

    Los Angeles Rams to win the division

    “With him staying put, the NFC West Rams division to lose in 2025.”

    Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skill
    How this was scored
    skill:
    0
    method:
    division winners read off the bracket: the bye teams and the wild-card hosts
    they picked:
    LAR
    season:
    2025
    accuracy:
    0
    baseline:
    0
    the naive pick:
    LAR
    difficulty:
    2
    the naive guess:
    last season's winner of the same division
    weeks in the season:
    18
    weeks left when called:
    18
    won the division:
    no

    Think this is wrong?

  • Mock Draft PicksShedeur SandersMar 3, 2025

    Shedeur Sanders to be picked “fall out of the top 10” (picks 1–10)

    “Shador Sanders. Yes. He's gonna fall out of the top 10.”

    Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 50
    How this was scored
    draft:
    2025
    naive:
    a shuffled mock scores 50
    player:
    Shedeur Sanders
    season:
    2025
    zero at:
    32
    accuracy:
    100
    baseline:
    50
    actual pick:
    144
    difficulty:
    1
    weeks in the season:
    18
    pick accuracy:
    100
    predicted pick:
    fall out of the top 10 (NOT picks 1–10)
    weeks left when called:
    0
    mock ordering score:
    only one pick — no order to score

    Think this is wrong?

  • Team Draft Slot CallsTennessee TitansMar 3, 2025

    Tennessee Titans to pick at number 1

    “the Titans won't be making the first overall pick. Someone's gonna move up.”

    Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 77.11+45.78 skill
    How this was scored
    team:
    TEN
    draft:
    2025
    naive:
    they picked 7 the year before
    skill:
    45.78
    season:
    2025
    zero at:
    32
    accuracy:
    100
    baseline:
    77.11
    actual pick:
    1
    difficulty:
    2
    weeks in the season:
    18
    predicted pick:
    1
    weeks left when called:
    18

    Think this is wrong?

What others said about the same people

More conference champions

The same kind of call, about other players and teams.

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