Chris Brockman · Mar 3, 2025
Brockman floats a series of overreactions: the Titans won't make the first overall pick because someone trades up, at least six quarterbacks and running backs combined go in round one, Shedeur Sanders falls out of the top 10, the Rams win the NFC West, the Commanders become the team to beat in the NFC, and Sam Darnold leaves Minnesota for $50 million a year.
“the Titans won't be making the first overall pick. Someone's gonna move up.”
said on air, transcribed by us · Overreaction Monday (podcast) · read the original →
5 checkable claims from this
Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.
- Mock Draft PicksShedeur SandersMar 3, 2025
Shedeur Sanders to be picked “fall out of the top 10” (picks 1–10)
“Shador Sanders. Yes. He's gonna fall out of the top 10.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 50How this was scored
- draft:
- 2025
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- player:
- Shedeur Sanders
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 144
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 100
- predicted pick:
- fall out of the top 10 (NOT picks 1–10)
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- only one pick — no order to score
- Team Draft Slot CallsTennessee TitansMar 3, 2025
Tennessee Titans to pick at number 1
“the Titans won't be making the first overall pick. Someone's gonna move up.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 77.11+45.78 skillHow this was scored
- team:
- TEN
- draft:
- 2025
- naive:
- they picked 7 the year before
- skill:
- 45.78
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 77.11
- actual pick:
- 1
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- predicted pick:
- 1
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- Division WinnersLos Angeles RamsMar 3, 2025
Los Angeles Rams to win the division
“With him staying put, the NFC West Rams division to lose in 2025.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the season it describes has finished.
- Trade and Signing CallsSam DarnoldMar 3, 2025
Sam Darnold to move
“Sam Darnold... Not coming back to the Vikings, and he's gonna get $50,000,000 a year in his new deal.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the season it describes has finished.
- Conference ChampionsWashington CommandersMar 3, 2025
Washington Commanders to reach the Super Bowl
“Adding Deebo puts the commanders as the team to beat in the NFC.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the season it describes has finished.