Skip to main content
MissedTakes
Menu

Nick Wright· Jan 24, 2026

Wright picked the Broncos to beat the Patriots in a low-scoring AFC Championship game (17-16), said Sean Payton would coach Denver to the Super Bowl, picked the Rams to win outright in Seattle 31-20, believes the winner of the NFC game wins the Super Bowl with the Rams the better team, and expects Matt Stafford to be named league MVP.

“The Broncos crowd and the Broncos defense carries them to a seventeen thirteen, seventeen fourteen type of victory.”

said on air, transcribed by us · First Things First (podcast) · read the original →

7 checkable claims — 2 game outcome picks, 2 score predictions, 1 award pick, 1 conference champion and 1 super bowl pick — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.

It names 3 players and teams, each linked to their own record.

All 7 have settled, averaging 32.7 out of 100, against 34.7 for a naive guess at the same calls.

Where do you stand? Pick this and every open claim on Picks →

Who this take is about

7 checkable claims in this take

Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.

  • Game Outcome PicksLos Angeles RamsJan 24, 2026

    Los Angeles Rams to win

    “Rams went outright thirty one twenty. ... The Rams, record notwithstanding, have been the best team in are better than the Seattle Seahawks.”

    Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-100 skill
    How this was scored
    won:
    SEA
    score:
    27-31
    skill:
    -100
    they picked:
    LAR
    season:
    2025
    accuracy:
    0
    baseline:
    100
    the naive pick:
    SEA
    difficulty:
    1
    weeks in the season:
    18
    weeks left when called:
    0

    Think this is wrong?

  • Score PredictionsLos Angeles RamsJan 24, 2026

    Los Angeles Rams 31 — Seattle Seahawks 20

    “Rams went outright thirty one twenty. Thirty one twenty.”

    Miss · 33Scored 33.33a naive guess scored 95.3-61.97 skill
    How this was scored
    score:
    27-31
    skill:
    -61.97
    they picked:
    LAR
    season:
    2025
    accuracy:
    33.33
    baseline:
    95.3
    difficulty:
    1
    weeks in the season:
    18
    actual margin:
    4
    weeks left when called:
    0
    naive home margin:
    2.03
    predicted margin:
    11

    Think this is wrong?

  • Conference ChampionsDenver BroncosJan 24, 2026

    Denver Broncos to reach the Super Bowl

    “Well, they're a game from the Super Bowl. So and I'm and I'm picking him to go to it. And even though they have a backup quarterback”

    Close · 50Scored 50a naive guess scored 0+50 skill
    How this was scored
    skill:
    50
    they picked:
    DEN
    season:
    2025
    accuracy:
    50
    baseline:
    0
    champions:
    NE,SEA
    difficulty:
    1
    the naive guess:
    last season's conference champions
    weeks in the season:
    18
    weeks left when called:
    0
    reached the Super Bowl:
    no
    lost the conference final:
    yes

    Think this is wrong?

  • Score PredictionsDenver BroncosJan 24, 2026

    Denver Broncos 17 — New England 16

    “17 Denver. 16 New England. Hard to get to 16, but they could do it. ... One touchdown, three field goals.”

    Close · 45Scored 45.24a naive guess scored 47.69-2.45 skill
    How this was scored
    score:
    10-7
    skill:
    -2.45
    they picked:
    DEN
    season:
    2025
    accuracy:
    45.24
    baseline:
    47.69
    difficulty:
    1
    weeks in the season:
    18
    actual margin:
    3
    weeks left when called:
    0
    naive home margin:
    2.03
    predicted margin:
    1

    Think this is wrong?

  • Game Outcome PicksDenver BroncosJan 24, 2026

    Denver Broncos to win

    “I've got the Bronco. ... The Broncos crowd and the Broncos defense carries them to a seventeen thirteen, seventeen fourteen type of victory.”

    Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skill
    How this was scored
    won:
    NE
    score:
    10-7
    skill:
    0
    they picked:
    DEN
    season:
    2025
    accuracy:
    0
    baseline:
    0
    the naive pick:
    DEN
    difficulty:
    1
    weeks in the season:
    18
    weeks left when called:
    0

    Think this is wrong?

  • Award PicksMatthew StaffordLos Angeles RamsJan 24, 2026

    Matthew Stafford to win MVP

    “he's about to be named league MVP ... I think that if he wins this weekend, coach, and I'm right that he's gonna win the MVP”

    Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+100 skill
    How this was scored
    award:
    mvp
    naive:
    the naive pick was Josh Allen, who won it the year before
    skill:
    100
    player:
    Matthew Stafford
    season:
    2025
    winner:
    Matthew Stafford
    correct:
    yes
    accuracy:
    100
    baseline:
    0
    difficulty:
    1
    weeks in the season:
    18
    weeks left when called:
    0

    Think this is wrong?

  • Super Bowl PicksLos Angeles RamsJan 24, 2026

    Los Angeles Rams to win the Super Bowl

    “And so I just I I do believe the winner of this game is gonna win the Super Bowl, but I believe the Rams are the better team.”

    Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skill
    How this was scored
    skill:
    0
    they picked:
    LAR
    season:
    2025
    accuracy:
    0
    baseline:
    0
    champion:
    SEA
    runner up:
    NE
    the naive pick:
    PHI
    difficulty:
    1
    weeks in the season:
    18
    weeks left when called:
    0

    Think this is wrong?

What others said about the same people

More game outcome picks

The same kind of call, about other players and teams.

Discussed alongside these

We summarize what a pundit said and quote a short span of it for attribution — we never republish their article. If we have misread you, tell us and we will look at it.