Mike Martz· Sep 6, 2022
Martz picked Justin Herbert MVP, Josh Allen OPOY, Aaron Donald DPOY, Skyy Moore OROY, Travon Walker DROY, Dak Prescott Comeback Player and Josh McDaniels Coach of the Year.
published in writing · The 33rd Team · read the original (as archived Sep 7, 2022) →
The page this came from has since been taken down. The archived copy above is the record of what it said.
7 checkable claims — 6 award picks and 1 coach award pick — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.
It names 13 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
All 7 have settled, averaging 0 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess at the same calls.
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Who this take is about
7 checkable claims in this take
Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.
- Award PicksDak PrescottDallas CowboysSep 6, 2022
Dak Prescott to win Comeback Player of the Year
“Cowboys QB Dak Prescott (1 vote: Martz)”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skillHow this was scored
- award:
- comeback_player_of_the_year
- naive:
- the naive pick was Joe Burrow, who won it the year before
- skill:
- 0
- player:
- Dak Prescott
- season:
- 2022
- winner:
- Geno Smith
- correct:
- no
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- Award PicksAaron DonaldLos Angeles RamsSep 6, 2022
Aaron Donald to win Defensive Player of the Year
“1. Rams DT Aaron Donald (5 votes: Barber, Gannon, Martz, ...)”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skillHow this was scored
- award:
- defensive_player_of_the_year
- naive:
- the naive pick was T.J. Watt, who won it the year before
- skill:
- 0
- player:
- Aaron Donald
- season:
- 2022
- winner:
- Nick Bosa
- correct:
- no
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- Award PicksTravon WalkerJacksonville JaguarsSep 6, 2022
Travon Walker to win Defensive Rookie of the Year
“2. Jaguars edge rusher Travon Walker (4 votes: Barber, Lewis, Martz, Smith)”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skillHow this was scored
- award:
- defensive_rookie_of_the_year
- naive:
- the naive pick was Micah Parsons, who won it the year before
- skill:
- 0
- player:
- Travon Walker
- season:
- 2022
- winner:
- Sauce Gardner
- correct:
- no
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- Coach Award PicksLas Vegas RaidersSep 6, 2022
Josh McDaniels to win Coach of the Year
“T1. Raiders coach Josh McDaniels (3 votes: Cassel, Martz, Pagano)”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skillHow this was scored
- award:
- coach_of_the_year
- coach:
- Josh McDaniels
- naive:
- the naive pick was Mike Vrabel, who won it the year before
- skill:
- 0
- season:
- 2022
- winner:
- Brian Daboll
- correct:
- no
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- Award PicksJosh AllenBuffalo BillsSep 6, 2022
Josh Allen to win Offensive Player of the Year
“2. Bills QB Josh Allen (4 votes: Davis, Koetter, Martz, Zimmer)”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skillHow this was scored
- award:
- offensive_player_of_the_year
- naive:
- the naive pick was Cooper Kupp, who won it the year before
- skill:
- 0
- player:
- Josh Allen
- season:
- 2022
- winner:
- Justin Jefferson
- correct:
- no
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- Award PicksSkyy MooreKansas City ChiefsSep 6, 2022
Skyy Moore to win Offensive Rookie of the Year
“Chiefs WR Skyy Moore (1 vote: Martz)”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skillHow this was scored
- award:
- offensive_rookie_of_the_year
- naive:
- the naive pick was Ja'Marr Chase, who won it the year before
- skill:
- 0
- player:
- Skyy Moore
- season:
- 2022
- winner:
- Garrett Wilson
- correct:
- no
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
Justin Herbert to win Most Valuable Player
“T2. Chargers QB Justin Herbert (3 votes: Matt Cassel, Mike Martz, Mike Tannenbaum)”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skillHow this was scored
- award:
- mvp
- naive:
- the naive pick was Aaron Rodgers, who won it the year before
- skill:
- 0
- player:
- Justin Herbert
- season:
- 2022
- winner:
- Patrick Mahomes
- correct:
- no
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
What others said about the same people
- Nick WrightGame Outcome Picks · Buffalo BillsHit · 100Nick Wright expects the Bills to beat the Lions comfortably in the Thursday night home opener, with Josh Allen shredding a depleted Detroit secondary, and he also picks a workmanlike Chiefs win over the Colts on Sunday night. He further predicts Tyreek Hill will end up on the Chiefs by around Halloween.
- Mike MoraitisTrade and Signing Calls · DaRon BlandMiss · 0Moraitis names five Cowboys he expects to be playing their final season opener in Dallas in 2026: George Pickens (likely tag-and-trade or departure), Malik Hooker, Luke Schoonmaker, DeMarvion Overshown and DaRon Bland.
- Fernando Alfaro-DonisTrade and Signing Calls · Kayshon BoutteMiss · 0Argues the Raiders' weakest spot is their receiver room, expects Jalen Nailor to take a big step forward in Klint Kubiak's scheme with Kirk Cousins starting before Fernando Mendoza takes over, and suggests Las Vegas should trade a mid-round pick for Patriots receiver Kayshon Boutte, who would immediately become their top option.
- Brandon CarneyTrade and Signing Calls · Stefon DiggsMiss · 0Carney drafted a team of rookies he expects to make an immediate fantasy impact (headlined by Karnell Tate and Makai Lemon), predicted landing spots for the remaining big-name free agents, and gave way-too-early division winners, wild cards and award picks — Patriots, Chargers, Bengals, Jaguars, Eagles, Rams, Vikings and Saints as division champs with Joe Burrow as MVP.
- Nick ShookMock Draft Picks · Dillon ThienemanClose · 57Shook walks through his full first-round mock draft, assigning a prospect to every pick from No. 1 to No. 32, headlined by Fernando Mendoza to the Raiders, David Bailey to the Jets and Jeremiah Love to the Cardinals in the top three.
- Bucky BrooksMock Draft Picks · Carnell TateHit · 81In a mock draft covering the first 14 picks, Brooks made the odd-numbered selections: Fernando Mendoza to the Raiders at No. 1, a Miami offensive lineman to Arizona at No. 3, Caleb Downs to the Giants at No. 5, Ohio State's Arvell Reese to Washington at No. 7, Carnell Tate to Kansas City at No. 9, tight end Kenyon Sadiq to Miami at No. 11, and Spencer Fano to the Rams at No. 13.
More award picks
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
- Gregg RosenthalAward Picks · Tristan WirfsMiss · 0Rosenthal picked Patrick Mahomes for MVP, Micah Parsons for Defensive Player of the Year, Jahmyr Gibbs for Offensive Player of the Year, Aaron Glenn for Coach of the Year, Travis Hunter for both Offensive and Defensive Rookie of the Year, Bill Callahan for Assistant Coach of the Year and Tristan Wirfs for Protector of the Year. He also made depth-chart calls on Adam Thielen and Jalen Coker.
- Jourdan RodrigueAward Picks · Penei SewellMiss · 0Rodrigue picked Patrick Mahomes for MVP, Jared Verse for Defensive Player of the Year, Ja'Marr Chase for Offensive Player of the Year, Mike Vrabel for Coach of the Year, TreVeyon Henderson for Offensive Rookie of the Year and Abdul Carter for Defensive Rookie of the Year, with Jesse Minter for Assistant Coach of the Year and Penei Sewell for Protector of the Year.
- Brandon SneideAward Picks · Drake MayeMiss · 0Snyder picks the Seahawks to beat the Patriots 31-23 in Super Bowl 60, believing Seattle pulls away late, and says Drake Maye will finish second in MVP voting behind Matthew Stafford.
- Nick WrightAward Picks · Rashid ShaheedMiss · 0Nick picked Seattle to win the Super Bowl 27-17, citing Seattle's defense, coaching against young quarterbacks and schedule strength, and named Rasheed Shaheed as his dark horse Super Bowl MVP.
- Chris BroussardAward Picks · Cooper KuppMiss · 0Broussard picked New England to beat Seattle 24-21, with Drake May winning Super Bowl MVP, and named Cooper Kupp as his dark horse MVP.
- Eric ManginiAward Picks · Drake MayeMiss · 0Mangini picked the Patriots 23-20 with Drake May as Super Bowl MVP, and earlier named Kayshon Boutte ("Kaeshawn Booty") as his dark horse MVP.