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Jesse Holley· Jan 16, 2026

Jesse picked the 49ers to beat Seattle (expecting Sam Darnold to revert to form), the Texans over New England, and the Rams over the Bears. He also called Oregon's tight end a first-round player and ranked the Giants' new head coach as the best in the NFC East ahead of Quinn and Schottenheimer.

“And I think that's going to help the niners.”

said on air, transcribed by us · DLLS Dallas Cowboys (podcast) · read the original →

5 checkable claims — 3 game outcome picks, 1 head coach ranking and 1 mock draft pick — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.

It names 4 players and teams, each linked to their own record.

All 5 have settled, averaging 45 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess at the same calls.

Where do you stand? Pick this and every open claim on Picks →

Who this take is about

5 checkable claims in this take

Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.

  • Game Outcome PicksSan Francisco 49ersJan 16, 2026

    San Francisco 49ers to win

    “the clock is going to strike twelve... he's going to do what he normally does in the playoffs... And I think that's going to help the niners. They're gonna capitalize on that defensively.”

    Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-100 skill
    How this was scored
    won:
    SEA
    score:
    6-41
    skill:
    -100
    they picked:
    SF
    season:
    2025
    accuracy:
    0
    baseline:
    100
    the naive pick:
    SEA
    difficulty:
    1
    weeks in the season:
    18
    weeks left when called:
    0

    Think this is wrong?

  • Head Coach RankingsJan 16, 2026

    “Best head coach in the NFC East. He is right now. Quinn second, Shadi third.”

    Miss · 25Scored 25a naive guess scored 0+25 skill
    How this was scored
    best:
    Mike Vrabel
    skill:
    25
    method:
    spearman
    season:
    2025
    accuracy:
    25
    baseline:
    0
    settled by:
    wins above the prior-season baseline
    difficulty:
    1
    weeks in the season:
    18
    coaches ranked:
    3
    weeks left when called:
    0

    Think this is wrong?

  • Game Outcome PicksHouston TexansJan 16, 2026

    Houston Texans to win

    “I cannot believe you sold out Drake May... That's how you know I'm objective... We both took Texans.”

    Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-100 skill
    How this was scored
    won:
    NE
    score:
    16-28
    skill:
    -100
    they picked:
    HOU
    season:
    2025
    accuracy:
    0
    baseline:
    100
    the naive pick:
    NE
    difficulty:
    1
    weeks in the season:
    18
    weeks left when called:
    0

    Think this is wrong?

  • Mock Draft PicksKenyon SadiqJan 16, 2026

    Kenyon Sadiq to be picked “first round player” (picks 1–32)

    “I watched Oregon's tight end last night. He's a first round player.”

    Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 50
    How this was scored
    draft:
    2026
    naive:
    a shuffled mock scores 50
    player:
    Kenyon Sadiq
    season:
    2025
    zero at:
    32
    accuracy:
    100
    baseline:
    50
    actual pick:
    16
    difficulty:
    1
    weeks in the season:
    18
    pick accuracy:
    100
    predicted pick:
    first round player (picks 1–32)
    weeks left when called:
    0
    mock ordering score:
    only one pick — no order to score

    Think this is wrong?

  • Game Outcome PicksLos Angeles RamsJan 16, 2026

    Los Angeles Rams to win

    “I'll take Stafford over there. And and for all those who are saying, the weather, the weather, the weather... They'll be fine.”

    Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+100 skill
    How this was scored
    won:
    LAR
    score:
    20-17
    skill:
    100
    they picked:
    LAR
    season:
    2025
    accuracy:
    100
    baseline:
    0
    the naive pick:
    CHI
    difficulty:
    1
    weeks in the season:
    18
    weeks left when called:
    0

    Think this is wrong?

What others said about the same people

More game outcome picks

The same kind of call, about other players and teams.

Discussed alongside these

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